Genoa v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 12 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 15
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
5 – 6
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.78 – 0.39
Goals − xG
+1.72 – -1.01
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Genoa win
41.5%
Draw
27.0%
Cagliari win
31.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 4.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWLWDLWWWL last 10
scored 10
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.34–1.13 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.57–1.28 | 1-1 12% | 54% | 57% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Genoa 1.28 xGCagliari 1.01 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Genoa attacking right
Cagliari attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 12' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 20' |
 Cagliari |
Ndary Adopo | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adam Obert |
| 22' |
Cagliari |
Ndary Adopo | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 22' |
Cagliari |
Ndary Adopo | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Cagliari |
Luca Mazzitelli | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 23' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Luperto | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luca Mazzitelli |
| 30' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 33' |
Cagliari |
Marco Palestra | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 33' |
Cagliari |
Semih Kiliçsoy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Zito |
| 33' |
Cagliari |
Semih Kiliçsoy | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Obert |
| 37' |
Cagliari |
Luca Mazzitelli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marco Palestra |
| 39' |
Cagliari |
Luca Mazzitelli | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 39' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Genoa |
Leo Østigard | 0.19 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 54' |
Cagliari |
Zito | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 57' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Vitinha |
| 58' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 60' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alessandro Marcandalli |
| 69' |
Cagliari |
Riyad Idrissi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ndary Adopo |
| 69' |
Cagliari |
Semih Kiliçsoy | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ndary Adopo |
| 74' |
Genoa |
Morten Frendrup | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 77' |
Genoa |
Leo Østigard | 0.46 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Aarón Martín |
| 89' |
Cagliari |
Matteo Prati | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Østigard DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morten Frendrup MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Aarón Martín DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.35 |
| Nicola Leali GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Vitinha FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Mikael Ellertsson MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 75 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy MC | 75 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy DMR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Patrizio Masini Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morten Thorsby Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeff Ekhator Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefano Sabelli Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Junior Messias Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ndary Adopo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| Semih Kiliçsoy FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Matteo Prati MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Marco Palestra DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.21 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Obert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| Luca Mazzitelli MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.40 |
| Sebastiano Esposito FWL | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.05 | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| Zito FWR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.02 | 0.38 |
| Juan Rodríguez DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Riyad Idrissi Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Gianluca Gaetano Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gennaro Borrelli Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriele Zappa Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |