Genoa v Empoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 2 March 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
4 – 7
On target
1 – 1
Shots in box
3 – 4
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.16
Goals − xG
+0.77 – -0.01
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Genoa win
42.2%
Draw
34.6%
Empoli win
23.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Empoli are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 11.3 xG
conceded 14
from 10.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.23–0.86 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Genoa 0.23 xGEmpoli 1.01 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Genoa attacking right
Empoli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Genoa |
Junior Messias | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fabio Miretti |
| 13' |
 Empoli |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Empoli |
Emmanuel Gyasi | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 18' |
Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 35' |
Empoli |
Alberto Grassi | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 49' |
Empoli |
Youssef Maleh | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
Empoli |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Liam Henderson |
| 61' |
Empoli |
Liam Henderson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Empoli |
Liberato Cacace | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Genoa |
Maxwel Cornet | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Morten Frendrup |
| 80' |
Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Aarón Martín |
Players
Empoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Gyasi DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Liberato Cacace DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Youssef Maleh AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Alberto Grassi MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Saba Goglichidze DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Silvestri GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Marianucci DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Liam Henderson MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.77 |
| Sebastiano Esposito AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Kouamé Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mattia De Sciglio Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ismael Konaté Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Aarón Martín DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nicola Leali GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morten Frendrup MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Koni de Winter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Junior Messias AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Patrizio Masini MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mattia Bani DC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Fabio Miretti AMC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Alessandro Zanoli DMR | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Maxwel Cornet Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jeff Ekhator Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Stefano Sabelli Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean Onana Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Caleb Ekuban Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |