Genoa v Frosinone — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Genoa

13:00 UTC

Frosinone

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 101h before kick-off

Genoa win

38.4%

model 36.3%

Draw

23.0%

model 24.7%

Frosinone win

38.6%

model 39.0%

382339

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (567 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.5%
1-2 8.6%
2-1 8.2%
0-1 8.1%
1-0 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	55.6%	Under 2.5	44.4%
BTTS yes	58.7%	BTTS no	41.3%
Genoa 1+	75.9%	Genoa 2+	41.6%
Frosinone 1+	77.3%	Frosinone 2+	43.6%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.48. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

85/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

85%

★ Best pick

Frosinone over 0.5 in 1st half

Away goals O/U 1HT · usually 41%

59.3% fair odds 1.69

strong signal · 502 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Genoa (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 86%

83.9% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 379 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Frosinone carry the stronger rating, 1700 Elo against 1441.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Genoa were missing 0.71 expected goal involvements a match against 0.09.

Risk factors

The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.85).

Why the model thinks this

The price

Frosinone have an estimated 38.6% win probability, against 38.4% for Genoa and 23.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.42 for Genoa and 1.48 for Frosinone.

Why Genoa

At home Genoa average 1.03 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.42 to 1.48. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Frosinone can win

Frosinone carry the stronger rating, 1700 Elo against 1441. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Genoa were missing 0.71 expected goal involvements a match against 0.09.

Key players

Genoa's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Milutin Osmajic (0.30), Lorenzo Colombo (0.30), Vitinha (0.22). Frosinone's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Antonio Raimondo (0.56), Giorgi Kvernadze (0.30), Giacomo Calo (0.19).

Availability

1 of Genoa's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Genoa: 53% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.26 xG a match from set pieces. Frosinone: 40% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 19.2 faced, 0.18 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Frosinone are the model's most likely outcome at 38.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.5%. Confidence 85/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WWLDDLLLLL last 10 scored 6 from 9.8 xG conceded 14 from 15.0 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	362539	1.42–1.48	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	522325	1.80–1.18	1-1 11%	57%	58%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to win	38.9%	37.2%	34.0%	1.09×	2.69
Genoa to win	36.3%	37.0%	39.4%	0.94×	2.70
Draw	24.7%	22.2%	26.8%	0.83×	4.51

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone & both teams score	20.3%	22.6%	13.3%	1.70×	4.43
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	17.8%	18.7%	0.95×	5.63
Genoa & both teams score	19.1%	17.8%	16.9%	1.05×	5.63
Frosinone & not both score	18.6%	17.8%	20.8%	0.85×	5.63
Genoa & not both score	17.2%	17.7%	22.6%	0.79×	5.63
Draw & not both score	5.5%	7.3%	8.2%	0.89×	13.72

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone & over 1.5	30.8%	33.1%	24.6%	1.35×	3.02
Genoa & over 1.5	28.5%	25.5%	29.0%	0.88×	3.92
Frosinone & under 3.5	25.6%	25.5%	26.6%	0.96×	3.92
Frosinone & over 2.5	24.8%	21.5%	18.1%	1.19×	4.65
Genoa & under 3.5	24.2%	21.5%	29.4%	0.73×	4.65
Genoa & over 2.5	23.0%	21.5%	22.5%	0.96×	4.65
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	17.6%	18.7%	0.94×	5.69
Draw & under 2.5	17.0%	17.6%	19.9%	0.88×	5.69
Draw & under 3.5	17.0%	17.6%	19.9%	0.88×	5.69
Frosinone & under 2.5	14.1%	12.7%	16.0%	0.79×	7.86
Genoa & under 2.5	13.3%	12.7%	17.0%	0.75×	7.86
Frosinone & over 3.5	13.3%	12.7%	7.4%	1.71×	7.86
Genoa & over 3.5	12.2%	12.7%	10.1%	1.26×	7.86
Frosinone & under 1.5	8.1%	7.5%	9.5%	0.79×	13.41
Genoa & under 1.5	7.8%	7.5%	10.5%	0.71×	13.41
Draw & over 2.5	7.7%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.41
Draw & over 3.5	7.7%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.41
Draw & under 1.5	5.5%	7.5%	8.2%	0.91×	13.42

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (1UP)	56.5%	62.2%	51.1%	1.22×	1.61
Genoa (1UP)	54.3%	52.6%	54.7%	0.96×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (2UP)	38.9%	40.6%	36.5%	1.11×	2.46
Genoa (2UP)	36.3%	40.4%	41.0%	0.98×	2.48

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to win 2nd half	37.8%	37.5%	34.7%	1.08×	2.67
2nd half drawn	37.2%	37.5%	35.9%	1.05×	2.67
Frosinone to win 2nd half	25.0%	22.4%	29.5%	0.76×	4.46

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (+2.5)	93.8%	92.3%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Frosinone (+1.5)	83.1%	82.3%	83.0%	0.99×	1.22
Frosinone (+0.5)	63.7%	64.1%	60.6%	1.06×	1.56
Genoa (+0.5)	61.1%	64.0%	66.0%	0.97×	1.56
Frosinone (-0.5)	38.9%	36.0%	34.0%	1.06×	2.78
Genoa (-0.5)	36.3%	35.9%	39.4%	0.91×	2.79
Genoa (-1.5)	16.9%	17.7%	17.0%	1.04×	5.65
Genoa (-2.5)	6.2%	7.7%	7.6%	1.01×	13.06

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to concede	75.9%	76.0%	71.1%	1.07×	1.32
Frosinone clean sheet	24.1%	24.0%	28.9%	0.83×	4.16

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone clean sheet in 1st half	55.4%	60.2%	58.8%	1.02×	1.66
Frosinone to concede in 1st half	44.6%	39.8%	41.2%	0.97×	2.51

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone over 2.5 corners	79.2%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Frosinone under 6.5 corners	74.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Frosinone over 3.5 corners	64.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Frosinone under 5.5 corners	63.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Frosinone under 4.5 corners	50.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Frosinone over 4.5 corners	49.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Frosinone over 5.5 corners	36.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Frosinone under 3.5 corners	35.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Frosinone over 6.5 corners	25.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Frosinone under 2.5 corners	20.8%	24.0%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone under 3.5 goals	93.6%	92.7%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Frosinone under 2.5 goals	81.3%	82.2%	88.4%	0.93×	1.22
Frosinone over 0.5 goals	77.3%	75.3%	69.3%	1.09×	1.33
Frosinone under 1.5 goals	56.3%	57.6%	65.4%	0.88×	1.74
Frosinone over 1.5 goals	43.7%	42.4%	34.6%	1.22×	2.36
Frosinone under 0.5 goals	22.7%	24.7%	30.7%	0.81×	4.05
Frosinone over 2.5 goals	18.7%	17.8%	11.6%	1.53×	5.61
Frosinone over 3.5 goals	6.4%	7.3%	2.9%	2.52×	13.64

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone under 1.5 in 1st half	78.4%	79.4%	90.2%	0.88×	1.26
Frosinone over 0.5 in 1st half	58.0%	59.3%	41.0%	1.44×	1.69
Frosinone under 0.5 in 1st half	42.0%	40.7%	59.0%	0.69×	2.46
Frosinone over 1.5 in 1st half	21.6%	20.6%	9.8%	2.09×	4.86

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa (away no bet)	59.5%	59.2%	59.5%	0.99×	1.69
Draw (away no bet)	40.5%	40.8%	40.5%	1.01×	2.45

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone even goals	52.6%	52.4%	55.7%	0.94×	1.91
Frosinone odd goals	47.4%	47.6%	44.3%	1.07×	2.10

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.8%	81.7%	87.2%	0.94×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.2%	18.3%	12.8%	1.44×	5.46

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	67.1%	65.2%	59.6%	1.09×	1.54
Both halves under 1.5 goals	32.9%	34.8%	40.4%	0.86×	2.87

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	58.7%	59.3%	52.8%	1.12×	1.69
Frosinone to score 2+ in a row	34.2%	33.9%	27.7%	1.23×	2.95
Genoa to score 2+ in a row	32.2%	33.9%	31.1%	1.09×	2.95
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.2%	21.7%	17.3%	1.26×	4.60
Frosinone to score 3+ in a row	11.4%	12.2%	7.7%	1.58×	8.22
Genoa to score 3+ in a row	10.2%	12.1%	9.7%	1.25×	8.24

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone corners (+3.5)	82.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Genoa corners (+3.5)	81.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Frosinone corners (+2.5)	75.5%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Genoa corners (+2.5)	73.8%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Frosinone corners (+1.5)	66.6%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Genoa corners (+1.5)	64.6%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Frosinone corners (-1.5)	35.4%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Genoa corners (-1.5)	33.4%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Frosinone corners (-2.5)	26.2%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Genoa corners (-2.5)	24.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Frosinone corners (-3.5)	18.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Genoa corners (-3.5)	17.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	42.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
12+ corners	29.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
9-11 corners	28.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	78.0%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	70.7%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	68.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	62.1%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	57.8%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	52.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	47.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	42.2%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	37.9%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	31.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	29.3%	27.4%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	22.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.5%	11.6%	11.9%	0.98×	8.64
1-2	8.6%	7.3%	7.6%	0.96×	13.74
0-1	8.1%	7.3%	9.5%	0.77×	13.74
2-1	8.2%	7.3%	9.2%	0.79×	13.74
1-0	7.8%	7.3%	10.5%	0.69×	13.74
0-2	6.0%	7.3%	6.7%	1.09×	13.75
2-2	6.1%	7.3%	6.1%	1.20×	13.75
0-0	5.5%	7.3%	8.2%	0.89×	13.75
2-0	5.5%	7.3%	6.7%	1.09×	13.75
1-3	4.2%	1.8%	1.9%	0.95×	55.40
3-1	3.9%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.41
0-3	3.0%	1.8%	3.3%	0.55×	55.43
2-3	3.0%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.43
3-0	2.6%	1.8%	3.4%	0.53×	55.44
3-2	2.9%	1.8%	2.9%	0.62×	55.44
Any other score	3.3%	1.8%	2.8%	0.65×	55.43
1-4	1.6%	1.8%	0.8%	2.38×	55.47
3-3	1.4%	1.8%	0.9%	2.04×	55.47
4-1	1.4%	1.8%	1.1%	1.59×	55.47
0-4	1.1%	1.8%	1.0%	1.78×	55.48
2-4	1.1%	1.8%	0.1%	14.28×	55.48
3-4	0.5%	1.8%	0.3%	7.14×	55.50
4-0	0.9%	1.8%	1.6%	1.10×	55.49
4-2	1.0%	1.8%	0.1%	14.27×	55.48
4-3	0.5%	1.8%	0.3%	7.14×	55.50
4-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.50

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone leading at HT (DNB)	62.9%	65.1%	49.9%	1.31×	1.54
Genoa leading at HT (DNB)	37.1%	34.9%	50.1%	0.70×	2.87

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa or Frosinone (12)	75.3%	77.8%	73.2%	1.06×	1.29
Frosinone or draw (X2)	63.7%	63.0%	60.6%	1.04×	1.59
Genoa or draw (1X)	61.1%	62.8%	66.0%	0.95×	1.59

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone or draw at HT	76.5%	78.7%	72.5%	1.09×	1.27
Genoa or Frosinone at HT	63.2%	63.2%	54.8%	1.15×	1.58
Genoa or draw at HT	60.3%	63.1%	72.6%	0.87×	1.58

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone or draw (1UP)	63.7%	67.8%	66.3%	1.02×	1.48
Genoa or draw (1UP)	61.1%	67.6%	71.3%	0.95×	1.48

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa or draw in 2nd half	75.0%	77.6%	70.5%	1.10×	1.29
Genoa or Frosinone in 2nd half	62.8%	62.5%	64.1%	0.97×	1.60
Frosinone or draw in 2nd half	62.2%	62.5%	65.3%	0.96×	1.60

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.3%	59.3%	64.4%	0.92×	1.69
Neither half drawn	39.7%	40.7%	35.6%	1.14×	2.46

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (DNB)	51.7%	52.5%	46.3%	1.13×	1.91
Genoa (DNB)	48.3%	47.5%	53.7%	0.89×	2.10

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to score first	48.2%	46.2%	44.2%	1.05×	2.16
Genoa to score first	46.3%	46.1%	47.7%	0.97×	2.17
No goal scored	5.5%	6.2%	8.2%	0.76×	16.12

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.7%	56.8%	48.6%	1.17×	1.76
Not both teams to score	41.3%	43.2%	51.4%	0.84×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	47.2%	45.3%	36.9%	1.23×	2.21
Not both score & under 2.5	32.9%	34.4%	41.0%	0.84×	2.91
Both score & under 2.5	11.5%	11.7%	11.9%	0.99×	8.54
Not both score & over 2.5	8.4%	8.7%	10.5%	0.83×	11.46

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.8%	81.2%	86.9%	0.93×	1.23
Both teams to score 2+	18.2%	18.8%	13.1%	1.43×	5.32

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	74.0%	70.5%	74.7%	0.94×	1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.0%	29.5%	25.3%	1.17×	3.39

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	54.8%	55.0%	63.1%	0.87×	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	19.3%	18.3%	20.5%	0.89×	5.47
Both score 1st half only	19.2%	18.3%	11.7%	1.56×	5.47
Both score in both halves	6.7%	6.5%	4.9%	1.31×	15.44

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	74.1%	74.5%	83.5%	0.89×	1.34
Both teams to score by HT	25.9%	25.5%	16.5%	1.54×	3.92

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	58.7%	55.7%	51.8%	1.08×	1.80
A half without a goal	41.3%	44.3%	48.2%	0.92×	2.26

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.5%	45.9%	48.0%	0.96×	2.18
4-6 goals	30.3%	31.5%	23.5%	1.34×	3.17
0-1 goals	21.3%	22.8%	27.9%	0.82×	4.40
7+ goals	2.9%	2.0%	0.9%	2.21×	51.14

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to score exactly 1	33.7%	33.3%	34.8%	0.95×	3.01
Frosinone to score exactly 2	25.0%	24.0%	23.1%	1.04×	4.16
Frosinone to score exactly 0	22.7%	24.0%	30.7%	0.78×	4.17
Frosinone to score 3+	18.7%	18.4%	11.6%	1.58×	5.44

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to score exactly 1	34.3%	30.6%	32.3%	0.95×	3.27
Genoa to score exactly 2	24.4%	23.0%	24.6%	0.93×	4.35
Genoa to score exactly 0	24.1%	23.0%	28.9%	0.79×	4.35
Genoa to score 3+	17.2%	18.5%	14.4%	1.28×	5.41

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone leading at HT	39.7%	36.9%	27.4%	1.35×	2.71
Draw at HT	36.8%	36.8%	45.2%	0.81×	2.72
Genoa leading at HT	23.5%	21.3%	27.5%	0.77×	4.69

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone -1: 1	61.1%	60.7%	—	—	1.65
Frosinone -1: X	20.3%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
Frosinone -1: 2	18.7%	19.0%	—	—	5.27

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (0:1)	63.7%	59.9%	60.6%	0.99×	1.67
Draw (0:1)	19.5%	18.4%	22.5%	0.82×	5.45
Genoa (0:1)	16.9%	18.3%	17.0%	1.07×	5.47

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (0:2)	83.1%	83.6%	83.0%	1.01×	1.20
Draw (0:2)	10.6%	11.7%	9.6%	1.22×	8.56
Genoa (0:2)	6.2%	7.1%	7.6%	0.94×	13.99

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (0:3)	93.8%	92.6%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.4%	2.3%	4.5%	0.52×	42.65
Genoa (0:3)	1.9%	2.3%	3.2%	0.73×	43.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (0:4)	98.1%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.4%	1.2%	2.3%	0.55×	80.62
Genoa (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	1.0%	1.22×	81.11

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa (1:0)	61.1%	65.0%	66.0%	0.98×	1.54
Draw (1:0)	20.3%	22.9%	19.9%	1.15×	4.38
Frosinone (1:0)	18.7%	16.4%	14.1%	1.16×	6.10

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa (2:0)	81.3%	83.9%	85.9%	0.98×	1.19
Draw (2:0)	11.5%	12.1%	8.5%	1.43×	8.29
Frosinone (2:0)	7.2%	6.6%	5.8%	1.14×	15.16

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	37.8%	40.8%	26.8%	1.52×	2.45
2nd half highest scoring	37.4%	40.4%	46.6%	0.87×	2.48
Halves equal	24.7%	23.2%	26.8%	0.87×	4.30

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to concede	77.3%	77.2%	69.3%	1.11×	1.30
Genoa clean sheet	22.7%	22.8%	30.7%	0.74×	4.39

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to concede in 1st half	58.0%	59.1%	41.0%	1.44×	1.69
Genoa clean sheet in 1st half	42.0%	40.9%	59.0%	0.69×	2.45

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa over 2.5 corners	78.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Genoa under 6.5 corners	76.1%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Genoa under 5.5 corners	65.2%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Genoa over 3.5 corners	63.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Genoa under 4.5 corners	51.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Genoa over 4.5 corners	48.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Genoa under 3.5 corners	36.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Genoa over 5.5 corners	34.8%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Genoa over 6.5 corners	23.9%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Genoa under 2.5 corners	21.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa under 3.5 goals	94.4%	92.1%	95.5%	0.97×	1.09
Genoa under 2.5 goals	82.8%	82.4%	85.6%	0.96×	1.21
Genoa over 0.5 goals	75.9%	76.7%	71.1%	1.08×	1.30
Genoa under 1.5 goals	58.3%	55.7%	61.1%	0.91×	1.79
Genoa over 1.5 goals	41.7%	44.3%	38.9%	1.14×	2.26
Genoa under 0.5 goals	24.1%	23.3%	28.9%	0.81×	4.29
Genoa over 2.5 goals	17.2%	17.6%	14.4%	1.22×	5.69
Genoa over 3.5 goals	5.7%	7.9%	4.5%	1.73×	12.72

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa under 1.5 in 1st half	88.1%	87.8%	90.2%	0.97×	1.14
Genoa under 0.5 in 1st half	55.4%	59.9%	58.8%	1.02×	1.67
Genoa over 0.5 in 1st half	44.6%	40.1%	41.2%	0.97×	2.50
Genoa over 1.5 in 1st half	11.9%	12.2%	9.8%	1.24×	8.22

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (home no bet)	61.2%	61.3%	55.9%	1.10×	1.63
Draw (home no bet)	38.8%	38.7%	44.1%	0.88×	2.58

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa even goals	52.9%	50.3%	56.6%	0.89×	1.99
Genoa odd goals	47.1%	49.7%	43.4%	1.15×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	23.3%	22.7%	34.3%	0.66×	4.41
HT 0-1	20.2%	22.6%	18.4%	1.23×	4.43
HT 1-0	13.8%	11.2%	18.3%	0.61×	8.92
HT 1-1	11.9%	11.2%	10.5%	1.07×	8.94
HT 0-2	8.7%	7.7%	5.4%	1.42×	12.98
Any other HT score	7.9%	7.7%	3.0%	2.54×	13.00
HT 1-2	5.2%	7.7%	2.5%	3.04×	13.03
HT 2-0	4.1%	2.5%	5.6%	0.45×	39.77
HT 2-1	3.5%	2.5%	2.3%	1.11×	39.80
HT 2-2	1.5%	2.5%	0.6%	3.97×	39.91

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone at HT / Frosinone at FT	28.6%	27.2%	19.2%	1.42×	3.68
Genoa at HT / Genoa at FT	18.7%	16.8%	21.3%	0.79×	5.96
Draw at HT / Genoa at FT	13.9%	12.0%	15.8%	0.76×	8.34
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.7%	12.0%	16.7%	0.72×	8.35
Draw at HT / Frosinone at FT	9.2%	6.6%	13.0%	0.51×	15.17
Frosinone at HT / Draw at FT	7.5%	6.6%	5.9%	1.11×	15.21
Genoa at HT / Draw at FT	3.5%	3.4%	4.4%	0.77×	29.36
Frosinone at HT / Genoa at FT	3.7%	3.4%	2.5%	1.35×	29.36
Genoa at HT / Frosinone at FT	1.2%	3.4%	2.0%	1.68×	29.46

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to score last	48.2%	49.1%	43.6%	1.13×	2.04
Genoa to score last	46.3%	49.0%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04
No goal scored	5.5%	6.2%	8.2%	0.76×	16.12

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.5%	93.8%	91.8%	1.02×	1.07
Frosinone to lead by 1 at any time	56.5%	59.6%	51.1%	1.16×	1.68
Genoa to lead by 1 at any time	54.3%	51.0%	54.7%	0.93×	1.96
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.7%	46.2%	42.6%	1.08×	2.17
Frosinone to lead by 2 at any time	25.5%	25.9%	20.1%	1.29×	3.86
Genoa to lead by 2 at any time	23.5%	19.8%	22.9%	0.87×	5.05
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.5%	17.7%	14.5%	1.22×	5.66
Frosinone to lead by 3 at any time	9.3%	7.1%	6.3%	1.12×	14.11
Genoa to lead by 3 at any time	8.2%	7.1%	8.3%	0.85×	14.16

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone most corners	45.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Genoa most corners	43.6%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	10.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.1%	87.9%	89.1%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.6%	78.9%	80.7%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.8%	78.8%	71.3%	1.10×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.2%	73.6%	69.4%	1.06×	1.36
2-4 goals	61.7%	62.3%	61.0%	1.02×	1.61
1-3 goals	61.3%	62.3%	67.7%	0.92×	1.61
3-6 goals	52.7%	52.3%	46.5%	1.13×	1.91
3-5 goals	48.1%	48.0%	44.6%	1.08×	2.08
2-3 goals	45.5%	48.0%	48.0%	1.00×	2.08
1-2 goals	39.0%	38.9%	44.7%	0.87×	2.57
3-4 goals	38.6%	38.9%	36.1%	1.08×	2.57
4-6 goals	30.3%	34.1%	23.5%	1.45×	2.94
4-5 goals	25.7%	30.4%	21.6%	1.41×	3.29
5-6 goals	14.0%	13.5%	10.5%	1.29×	7.40
7+ goals	2.9%	2.0%	0.9%	2.30×	49.17

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone never behind	40.3%	50.6%	45.3%	1.12×	1.98
Genoa never behind	38.0%	45.4%	48.9%	0.93×	2.20

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.1%	51.8%	0.97×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.9%	48.2%	1.03×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.7%	51.9%	56.8%	0.91×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	47.3%	48.1%	43.2%	1.11×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.8%	51.7%	51.4%	1.01×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.2%	48.3%	48.6%	0.99×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.5%	93.0%	91.8%	1.01×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.5%	92.9%	97.2%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	83.1%	81.0%	88.8%	0.91×	1.24
Over 1.5 goals	78.7%	78.3%	72.1%	1.09×	1.28
Under 3.5 goals	66.8%	65.5%	75.8%	0.86×	1.53
Over 2.5 goals	55.6%	57.7%	47.2%	1.22×	1.74
Under 2.5 goals	44.4%	42.3%	52.8%	0.80×	2.36
Over 3.5 goals	33.2%	34.5%	24.2%	1.42×	2.90
Under 1.5 goals	21.3%	21.7%	27.9%	0.78×	4.60
Over 4.5 goals	16.9%	19.0%	11.2%	1.69×	5.26
Over 5.5 goals	7.5%	7.1%	2.8%	2.54×	14.18
Under 0.5 goals	5.5%	7.0%	8.2%	0.86×	14.22

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.0%	97.2%	99.1%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.7%	92.7%	97.0%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	79.8%	76.6%	87.1%	0.88×	1.31
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	72.3%	72.1%	62.9%	1.15×	1.39
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	57.2%	55.4%	68.5%	0.81×	1.81
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	42.8%	44.6%	31.5%	1.42×	2.24
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	27.7%	27.9%	37.1%	0.75×	3.58
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	20.2%	23.4%	12.9%	1.81×	4.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.3%	7.3%	3.0%	2.40×	13.71
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.0%	2.8%	0.9%	3.08×	35.98

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	81.9%	83.6%	91.9%	0.91×	1.20
Over 0.5 in 1st half	76.7%	78.0%	65.7%	1.19×	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	57.2%	60.1%	70.8%	0.85×	1.67
Over 1.5 in 1st half	42.8%	39.9%	29.2%	1.37×	2.50
Under 0.5 in 1st half	23.3%	22.0%	34.3%	0.64×	4.55
Over 2.5 in 1st half	18.1%	16.4%	8.1%	2.03×	6.09

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	82.2%	82.1%	82.3%	1.00×	1.22
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	76.5%	80.2%	77.9%	1.03×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	57.5%	54.2%	56.8%	0.95×	1.85
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	42.5%	45.8%	43.2%	1.06×	2.18
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	23.5%	19.8%	22.1%	0.89×	5.06
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	17.8%	17.9%	17.7%	1.02×	5.57

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa not to score in both halves	74.8%	70.5%	76.3%	0.92×	1.42
Frosinone not to score in both halves	73.3%	70.4%	78.8%	0.89×	1.42
Frosinone to score in both halves	26.7%	29.6%	21.2%	1.39×	3.38
Genoa to score in both halves	25.2%	29.5%	23.7%	1.24×	3.39

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	58.7%	57.9%	48.6%	1.19×	1.73
Only Frosinone scores	18.6%	16.4%	20.8%	0.79×	6.08
Only Genoa scores	17.2%	16.4%	22.6%	0.73×	6.10
Neither team scores	5.5%	6.6%	8.2%	0.81×	15.10

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.1%	21.6%	25.0%	0.86×	4.64
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	21.5%	23.1%	0.93×	4.64
Exactly 4 goals	16.3%	18.5%	13.1%	1.41×	5.39
Exactly 1 goals	15.9%	18.5%	19.8%	0.94×	5.39
Exactly 5 goals	9.5%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.11
6 or more goals	7.5%	7.6%	2.8%	2.74×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	5.5%	7.6%	8.2%	0.93×	13.16

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	42.5%	46.4%	43.2%	1.07×	2.16
1 goal in 2nd half	34.0%	33.2%	34.8%	0.95×	3.01
No goals in 2nd half	23.5%	18.6%	22.1%	0.84×	5.39

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa not to win both halves	91.1%	93.3%	90.3%	1.03×	1.07
Frosinone not to win both halves	90.1%	93.3%	91.4%	1.02×	1.07
Frosinone to win both halves	9.9%	6.7%	8.6%	0.78×	14.93
Genoa to win both halves	8.9%	6.7%	9.7%	0.69×	15.00

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to win either half	54.8%	54.0%	48.4%	1.12×	1.85
Genoa to win either half	52.4%	53.9%	52.5%	1.03×	1.85
Genoa to win neither half	47.6%	46.1%	47.5%	0.97×	2.17
Frosinone to win neither half	45.2%	46.0%	51.6%	0.89×	2.18

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa not to win to nil	82.8%	83.3%	77.4%	1.08×	1.20
Frosinone not to win to nil	81.4%	83.2%	79.2%	1.05×	1.20
Frosinone to win to nil	18.6%	16.8%	20.8%	0.81×	5.96
Genoa to win to nil	17.2%	16.7%	22.6%	0.74×	5.98

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.7%	23.8%	26.8%	0.89×	4.21
Frosinone by 1	20.3%	23.7%	19.9%	1.19×	4.22
Genoa by 1	19.5%	17.0%	22.5%	0.76×	5.88
Frosinone by 2	11.5%	11.8%	8.5%	1.40×	8.44
Genoa by 2	10.6%	11.8%	9.6%	1.23×	8.45
Frosinone by 3+	7.2%	7.1%	5.8%	1.22×	14.11
Genoa by 3+	6.2%	7.1%	7.6%	0.93×	14.13