Genoa v Juventus — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Genoa

19:45 UTC

Juventus

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 105h before kick-off

Genoa win

17.8%

model 15.6%

Draw

21.7%

model 22.7%

Juventus win

60.5%

model 61.7%

182261

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-1 13.9%
0-2 12.5%
1-1 10.7%
1-2 9.5%
0-0 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	46.9%	Under 2.5	53.1%
BTTS yes	44.5%	BTTS no	55.5%
Genoa 1+	53.4%	Genoa 2+	17.8%
Juventus 1+	83.2%	Juventus 2+	53.3%

Expected goals 0.76 – 1.79. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

99/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Juventus (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 34%

63.7% fair odds 1.57

strong signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Juventus or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP · usually 65%

84.0% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Juventus carry the stronger rating, 1677 Elo against 1447.
Juventus have created 1.87 xG a match over their last five while Genoa have allowed 1.45.
Away from home Juventus average 2.13 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Juventus have an estimated 60.5% win probability, against 21.7% for the draw and 17.8% for Genoa. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.76 for Genoa and 1.79 for Juventus.

Why Genoa

Genoa have created 0.97 xG a match over their last five while Juventus have allowed 0.58. At home Genoa average 1.25 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Juventus were missing 1.41 expected goal involvements a match against 0.79.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.7%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Juventus can win

Juventus carry the stronger rating, 1677 Elo against 1447. Juventus have created 1.87 xG a match over their last five while Genoa have allowed 1.45. Away from home Juventus average 2.13 xG a match.

Key players

Genoa's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Milutin Osmajic (0.36), Lorenzo Colombo (0.33), Ruslan Malinovskiy (0.21). Juventus's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Kenan Yildiz (0.43), Randal Kolo Muani (0.43), Dusan Vlahovic (0.38).

Availability

2 of Genoa's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Genoa's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Juventus's top three contributors did not start their last match. 45% of Juventus's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Genoa: 42% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.14 xG a match from set pieces. Juventus: 58% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 7.4 faced, 0.62 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Juventus are the model's most likely outcome at 60.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 13.9%. Confidence 99/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DLLLLLDLWL last 10 scored 6 from 9.7 xG conceded 16 from 14.5 xG

Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 6.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WLDWWDLWDL last 10 scored 12 from 18.7 xG conceded 12 from 5.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	162362	0.76–1.79	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	142462	0.65–1.67	0-1 16%	41%	39%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to win	57.5%	54.0%	33.6%	1.61×	1.85
Draw	23.8%	24.5%	26.4%	0.93×	4.09
Genoa to win	18.7%	19.4%	40.1%	0.48×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus & not both score	34.7%	29.6%	20.5%	1.44×	3.37
Juventus & both teams score	22.8%	21.8%	13.2%	1.65×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	16.1%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.57
Genoa & not both score	10.5%	13.3%	22.6%	0.59×	7.54
Genoa & both teams score	8.2%	8.3%	17.6%	0.47×	12.01
Draw & not both score	7.7%	8.3%	7.9%	1.05×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus & over 1.5	44.3%	40.3%	24.6%	1.64×	2.48
Juventus & under 3.5	40.3%	40.2%	26.3%	1.53×	2.49
Juventus & over 2.5	33.1%	30.8%	18.1%	1.70×	3.25
Juventus & under 2.5	24.3%	21.6%	15.6%	1.38×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	19.0%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.0%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Juventus & over 3.5	17.1%	18.0%	7.4%	2.42×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.1%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Genoa & under 3.5	15.1%	18.0%	29.5%	0.61×	5.56
Juventus & under 1.5	13.1%	12.8%	9.1%	1.41×	7.79
Genoa & over 1.5	12.1%	12.8%	30.0%	0.43×	7.79
Genoa & over 2.5	9.3%	7.9%	23.4%	0.34×	12.63
Genoa & under 2.5	9.4%	7.9%	16.8%	0.47×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	7.7%	7.9%	7.9%	1.00×	12.63
Genoa & under 1.5	6.6%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	4.9%	4.8%	6.8%	0.70×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	4.9%	4.8%	6.8%	0.70×	20.81
Genoa & over 3.5	3.6%	4.8%	10.7%	0.45×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (1UP)	69.2%	70.3%	50.4%	1.39×	1.42
Genoa (1UP)	34.8%	33.2%	55.3%	0.60×	3.01

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (2UP)	57.5%	55.1%	36.1%	1.52×	1.82
Genoa (2UP)	18.7%	17.4%	41.9%	0.41×	5.75

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to win 2nd half	43.8%	42.1%	30.1%	1.40×	2.38
2nd half drawn	35.0%	35.9%	35.1%	1.02×	2.78
Genoa to win 2nd half	21.2%	24.0%	34.9%	0.69×	4.16

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus under 1.5 in 2nd half	74.8%	75.5%	85.0%	0.89×	1.32
Juventus over 0.5 in 2nd half	62.0%	60.2%	50.1%	1.20×	1.66
Juventus under 0.5 in 2nd half	38.0%	39.8%	49.9%	0.80×	2.51
Juventus over 1.5 in 2nd half	25.2%	24.5%	15.0%	1.63×	4.09

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.6%	88.5%	81.4%	1.09×	1.13
Genoa under 0.5 in 2nd half	56.3%	57.9%	46.2%	1.25×	1.73
Genoa over 0.5 in 2nd half	43.7%	42.1%	53.8%	0.78×	2.37
Genoa over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.4%	11.5%	18.6%	0.62×	8.69

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (+2.5)	98.6%	96.3%	92.3%	1.04×	1.04
Juventus (+1.5)	94.1%	92.1%	82.5%	1.12×	1.09
Juventus (+0.5)	81.3%	82.5%	59.9%	1.38×	1.21
Juventus (-0.5)	57.5%	57.0%	33.6%	1.70×	1.75
Genoa (+0.5)	42.5%	43.0%	66.4%	0.65×	2.33
Genoa (-0.5)	18.7%	17.5%	40.1%	0.44×	5.72
Genoa (-1.5)	5.9%	7.9%	17.5%	0.45×	12.70
Genoa (-2.5)	1.4%	3.7%	7.7%	0.48×	27.22

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to concede	57.6%	62.4%	71.7%	0.87×	1.60
Juventus clean sheet	42.4%	37.6%	28.3%	1.33×	2.66

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus clean sheet in 1st half	75.3%	77.3%	57.9%	1.34×	1.29
Juventus to concede in 1st half	24.7%	22.7%	42.1%	0.54×	4.41

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus clean sheet in 2nd half	56.3%	57.2%	46.2%	1.24×	1.75
Juventus to concede in 2nd half	43.7%	42.8%	53.8%	0.80×	2.34

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus over 2.5 corners	83.6%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Juventus over 3.5 corners	71.1%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Juventus under 6.5 corners	67.6%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Juventus over 4.5 corners	57.4%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Juventus under 5.5 corners	55.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Juventus over 5.5 corners	44.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Juventus under 4.5 corners	42.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Juventus over 6.5 corners	32.4%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Juventus under 3.5 corners	28.9%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Juventus under 2.5 corners	16.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus under 3.5 goals	90.6%	92.3%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Juventus over 0.5 goals	81.8%	81.5%	69.6%	1.17×	1.23
Juventus under 2.5 goals	75.6%	76.2%	88.1%	0.87×	1.31
Juventus over 1.5 goals	50.8%	53.5%	35.1%	1.53×	1.87
Juventus under 1.5 goals	49.2%	46.5%	64.9%	0.72×	2.15
Juventus over 2.5 goals	24.4%	23.8%	11.9%	2.00×	4.21
Juventus under 0.5 goals	18.2%	18.5%	30.4%	0.61×	5.39
Juventus over 3.5 goals	9.4%	7.7%	2.9%	2.66×	13.04

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus under 1.5 in 1st half	83.1%	83.2%	89.9%	0.93×	1.20
Juventus over 0.5 in 1st half	52.2%	55.6%	41.2%	1.35×	1.80
Juventus under 0.5 in 1st half	47.8%	44.4%	58.8%	0.75×	2.26
Juventus over 1.5 in 1st half	16.9%	16.8%	10.1%	1.66×	5.96

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus scores more in 2nd half	39.6%	37.4%	32.9%	1.14×	2.67
Juventus scores equally in both	33.7%	33.5%	43.3%	0.77×	2.99
Juventus scores more in 1st half	26.8%	26.2%	23.9%	1.10×	3.82

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	56.0%	57.4%	39.7%	1.44×	1.74
Genoa (away no bet)	44.0%	42.6%	60.3%	0.71×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus even goals	51.7%	52.6%	55.6%	0.95×	1.90
Juventus odd goals	48.3%	47.4%	44.4%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.6%	87.8%	87.3%	1.01×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.4%	12.2%	12.7%	0.96×	8.22

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	60.4%	57.6%	60.3%	0.96×	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	39.6%	42.4%	39.7%	1.07×	2.36

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	54.7%	51.1%	53.4%	0.96×	1.96
Juventus to score 2+ in a row	44.2%	38.8%	27.7%	1.40×	2.58
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.9%	19.6%	17.9%	1.10×	5.11
Juventus to score 3+ in a row	18.2%	16.3%	7.9%	2.05×	6.15
Genoa to score 2+ in a row	14.7%	12.1%	31.8%	0.38×	8.26
Genoa to score 3+ in a row	2.9%	2.6%	10.1%	0.25×	38.96

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus corners (+3.5)	89.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Juventus corners (+2.5)	84.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Juventus corners (+1.5)	77.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Genoa corners (+3.5)	72.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Genoa corners (+2.5)	62.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Genoa corners (+1.5)	52.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Juventus corners (-1.5)	47.3%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Juventus corners (-2.5)	37.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Juventus corners (-3.5)	27.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Genoa corners (-1.5)	22.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Genoa corners (-2.5)	15.7%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Genoa corners (-3.5)	10.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	43.1%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
12+ corners	28.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
9-11 corners	28.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	78.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	71.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	67.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	62.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	56.9%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	53.3%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	46.7%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	43.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	37.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	32.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	28.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	21.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	13.1%	11.5%	9.1%	1.26×	8.72
0-2	11.2%	11.5%	6.6%	1.74×	8.72
1-1	11.3%	11.5%	11.9%	0.96×	8.72
1-2	9.6%	7.4%	7.4%	0.99×	13.50
0-0	7.7%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.51
1-0	6.6%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.51
0-3	6.4%	7.4%	3.5%	2.13×	13.51
1-3	5.5%	7.4%	2.0%	3.63×	13.51
2-1	4.8%	1.7%	9.4%	0.18×	58.29
0-4	2.7%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.30
1-4	2.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.31
2-0	2.8%	1.7%	6.7%	0.26×	58.30
2-2	4.1%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.30
2-3	2.3%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.31
2-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.31
3-0	0.8%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.31
3-1	1.4%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
3-2	1.2%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.31
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.32
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
4-0	0.2%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.32
4-1	0.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.32
4-2	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
Any other score	3.2%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (2nd half DNB)	67.4%	67.0%	46.3%	1.45×	1.49
Genoa (2nd half DNB)	32.6%	33.0%	53.7%	0.61×	3.03

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus leading at HT (DNB)	76.8%	75.1%	48.8%	1.54×	1.33
Genoa leading at HT (DNB)	23.2%	24.9%	51.2%	0.49×	4.02

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus or draw (X2)	81.3%	80.6%	59.9%	1.35×	1.24
Genoa or Juventus (12)	76.2%	75.5%	73.6%	1.03×	1.32
Genoa or draw (1X)	42.5%	46.0%	66.4%	0.69×	2.18

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus or draw at HT	87.0%	87.8%	71.5%	1.23×	1.14
Genoa or draw at HT	56.9%	57.1%	72.9%	0.78×	1.75
Genoa or Juventus at HT	56.1%	57.1%	55.5%	1.03×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus or draw (1UP)	81.3%	88.5%	65.4%	1.35×	1.13
Genoa or draw (1UP)	42.5%	52.5%	71.7%	0.73×	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus or draw in 2nd half	78.8%	76.0%	65.1%	1.17×	1.32
Genoa or Juventus in 2nd half	65.0%	64.1%	64.9%	0.99×	1.56
Genoa or draw in 2nd half	56.2%	57.9%	69.9%	0.83×	1.73

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.6%	61.6%	63.5%	0.97×	1.62
Neither half drawn	36.4%	38.4%	36.5%	1.05×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (DNB)	75.4%	74.7%	45.6%	1.64×	1.34
Genoa (DNB)	24.6%	25.3%	54.4%	0.47×	3.95

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to score first	61.4%	64.5%	43.6%	1.48×	1.55
Genoa to score first	30.9%	27.3%	48.6%	0.56×	3.66
No goal scored	7.7%	7.5%	7.9%	0.94×	13.39

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	52.9%	51.3%	50.8%	1.01×	1.95
Both teams to score	47.1%	48.7%	49.2%	0.99×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	41.5%	41.6%	40.1%	1.04×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	35.9%	38.4%	37.5%	1.03×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	11.3%	12.4%	11.9%	1.04×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	11.4%	12.4%	10.8%	1.14×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	89.2%	85.6%	86.4%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	10.8%	14.4%	13.6%	1.06×	6.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.9%	73.7%	74.8%	0.99×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.1%	26.3%	25.2%	1.04×	3.80

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	63.5%	65.8%	62.7%	1.05×	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	23.6%	21.3%	20.4%	1.05×	4.69
Both score 1st half only	9.4%	6.9%	12.2%	0.56×	14.59
Both score in both halves	3.5%	4.9%	4.9%	1.00×	20.34

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	87.1%	85.3%	83.0%	1.03×	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	12.9%	14.7%	17.0%	0.86×	6.82

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	50.3%	52.7%	52.8%	1.00×	1.90
A half without a goal	49.7%	47.3%	47.2%	1.00×	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.9%	47.2%	48.4%	0.98×	2.12
0-1 goals	27.4%	26.6%	27.0%	0.99×	3.76
4-6 goals	24.0%	22.9%	23.9%	0.96×	4.36
7+ goals	1.6%	1.8%	1.0%	1.92×	54.34

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to score exactly 1	31.0%	33.8%	34.7%	0.98×	2.96
Juventus to score exactly 2	26.4%	27.4%	23.3%	1.17×	3.65
Juventus to score 3+	24.4%	22.3%	11.9%	1.88×	4.48
Juventus to score exactly 0	18.2%	19.6%	30.4%	0.64×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to score exactly 1	36.4%	35.6%	32.1%	1.11×	2.81
Genoa to score exactly 0	42.4%	35.3%	28.3%	1.25×	2.83
Genoa to score exactly 2	15.6%	18.8%	24.7%	0.76×	5.33
Genoa to score 3+	5.6%	10.3%	15.1%	0.68×	9.73

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.9%	42.9%	44.5%	0.96×	2.33
Juventus leading at HT	43.1%	42.9%	27.1%	1.58×	2.33
Genoa leading at HT	13.0%	12.3%	28.5%	0.43×	8.16

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus -1: 1	42.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Juventus -1: 2	32.1%	30.1%	—	—	3.33
Juventus -1: X	25.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (0:1)	81.3%	77.9%	59.9%	1.30×	1.28
Draw (0:1)	12.8%	13.7%	22.7%	0.60×	7.29
Genoa (0:1)	5.9%	9.2%	17.5%	0.53×	10.87

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (0:2)	94.1%	90.8%	82.5%	1.10×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	4.5%	3.8%	10.0%	0.38×	26.61
Genoa (0:2)	1.4%	3.7%	7.7%	0.49×	26.79

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (0:3)	98.6%	96.6%	92.3%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	1.2%	2.4%	4.7%	0.51×	42.16
Genoa (0:3)	0.3%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (0:4)	99.7%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Genoa (0:4)	0.0%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	82.10
Draw (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	2.3%	0.53×	82.08

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa (1:0)	42.5%	43.3%	66.4%	0.65×	2.31
Juventus (1:0)	32.1%	30.1%	14.4%	2.09×	3.33
Draw (1:0)	25.4%	25.0%	19.3%	1.29×	4.00

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa (2:0)	68.0%	70.9%	85.6%	0.83×	1.41
Draw (2:0)	17.8%	15.8%	8.6%	1.83×	6.32
Juventus (2:0)	14.3%	10.3%	5.9%	1.75×	9.70

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.4%	48.8%	46.2%	1.06×	2.05
Halves equal	25.5%	26.2%	26.9%	0.97×	3.82
1st half highest scoring	25.1%	26.2%	27.0%	0.97×	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to concede	81.8%	80.9%	69.6%	1.16×	1.24
Genoa clean sheet	18.2%	19.1%	30.4%	0.63×	5.23

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to concede in 1st half	52.2%	55.6%	41.2%	1.35×	1.80
Genoa clean sheet in 1st half	47.8%	44.4%	58.8%	0.75×	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to concede in 2nd half	62.0%	59.8%	50.1%	1.20×	1.67
Genoa clean sheet in 2nd half	38.0%	40.2%	49.9%	0.80×	2.49

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa under 6.5 corners	83.7%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Genoa under 5.5 corners	74.3%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Genoa over 2.5 corners	70.9%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Genoa under 4.5 corners	61.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Genoa over 3.5 corners	54.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Genoa under 3.5 corners	46.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Genoa over 4.5 corners	38.4%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Genoa under 2.5 corners	29.1%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Genoa over 5.5 corners	25.7%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Genoa over 6.5 corners	16.3%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa under 3.5 goals	98.9%	96.4%	95.3%	1.01×	1.04
Genoa under 2.5 goals	94.4%	92.2%	84.9%	1.09×	1.08
Genoa under 1.5 goals	78.8%	77.7%	60.3%	1.29×	1.29
Genoa over 0.5 goals	57.6%	58.6%	71.7%	0.82×	1.71
Genoa under 0.5 goals	42.4%	41.4%	28.3%	1.46×	2.42
Genoa over 1.5 goals	21.2%	22.3%	39.7%	0.56×	4.49
Genoa over 2.5 goals	5.6%	7.8%	15.1%	0.51×	12.90
Genoa over 3.5 goals	1.1%	3.6%	4.7%	0.77×	27.61

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa under 1.5 in 1st half	96.7%	97.1%	89.3%	1.09×	1.03
Genoa under 0.5 in 1st half	75.3%	76.7%	57.9%	1.33×	1.30
Genoa over 0.5 in 1st half	24.7%	23.3%	42.1%	0.55×	4.30
Genoa over 1.5 in 1st half	3.3%	2.9%	10.7%	0.27×	34.74

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa scores equally in both	49.6%	47.3%	41.7%	1.14×	2.11
Genoa scores more in 2nd half	35.4%	37.7%	36.3%	1.04×	2.65
Genoa scores more in 1st half	15.0%	15.0%	22.2%	0.68×	6.67

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (home no bet)	70.7%	66.7%	56.0%	1.19×	1.50
Draw (home no bet)	29.3%	33.3%	44.0%	0.76×	3.01

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa even goals	59.0%	55.3%	56.2%	0.98×	1.81
Genoa odd goals	41.0%	44.7%	43.8%	1.02×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	36.0%	39.0%	33.7%	1.16×	2.56
HT 0-1	26.6%	28.2%	18.1%	1.56×	3.55
HT 1-0	10.2%	11.0%	18.5%	0.59×	9.13
HT 0-2	9.8%	6.9%	5.4%	1.28×	14.43
HT 1-1	7.5%	6.9%	10.3%	0.67×	14.47
Any other HT score	4.2%	2.4%	3.4%	0.71×	42.02
HT 1-2	2.8%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	42.11
HT 2-0	1.4%	2.4%	5.8%	0.41×	42.20
HT 2-1	1.1%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.23
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.4%	0.7%	3.28×	42.27

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus at HT / Juventus at FT	36.3%	41.3%	19.1%	2.17×	2.42
Draw at HT / Juventus at FT	19.2%	16.8%	12.8%	1.31×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.4%	16.7%	16.1%	1.04×	5.98
Draw at HT / Genoa at FT	9.3%	6.0%	15.8%	0.38×	16.56
Genoa at HT / Genoa at FT	7.8%	6.0%	22.1%	0.27×	16.60
Juventus at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	5.9%	1.02×	16.67
Genoa at HT / Draw at FT	3.2%	3.5%	4.7%	0.75×	28.67
Genoa at HT / Juventus at FT	2.0%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.72
Juventus at HT / Genoa at FT	1.6%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.73

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to score last	61.4%	62.1%	44.1%	1.41×	1.61
Genoa to score last	30.9%	32.5%	48.1%	0.67×	3.08
No goal scored	7.7%	7.5%	7.9%	0.94×	13.39

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.3%	92.6%	92.1%	1.01×	1.08
Juventus to lead by 1 at any time	69.2%	69.5%	50.4%	1.38×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	47.1%	44.5%	43.7%	1.02×	2.25
Juventus to lead by 2 at any time	37.7%	34.6%	20.2%	1.72×	2.89
Genoa to lead by 1 at any time	34.8%	29.9%	55.3%	0.54×	3.34
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.5%	15.0%	15.1%	0.99×	6.69
Juventus to lead by 3 at any time	16.4%	14.9%	6.5%	2.30×	6.70
Genoa to lead by 2 at any time	9.5%	6.7%	24.0%	0.28×	14.82
Genoa to lead by 3 at any time	2.1%	1.6%	8.8%	0.18×	62.63

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus most corners	58.0%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Genoa most corners	31.9%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	10.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.7%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.6%	83.4%	80.7%	1.03×	1.20
2-6 goals	71.0%	72.4%	72.1%	1.00×	1.38
2-5 goals	67.9%	68.8%	70.1%	0.98×	1.45
1-3 goals	66.7%	68.8%	67.5%	1.02×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.8%	63.3%	61.6%	1.03×	1.58
2-3 goals	46.9%	48.5%	48.4%	1.00×	2.06
3-6 goals	45.6%	48.5%	47.3%	1.02×	2.06
1-2 goals	45.1%	48.5%	44.1%	1.10×	2.06
3-5 goals	42.6%	43.6%	45.3%	0.96×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.5%	39.2%	36.7%	1.07×	2.55
4-6 goals	24.0%	24.5%	23.9%	1.03×	4.08
4-5 goals	21.0%	24.5%	21.8%	1.12×	4.09
5-6 goals	10.1%	14.8%	10.7%	1.39×	6.76
7+ goals	1.6%	2.6%	1.0%	2.66×	39.15

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus never behind	57.5%	62.5%	44.7%	1.40×	1.60
Genoa never behind	23.1%	24.7%	49.6%	0.50×	4.06

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.3%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.5%	57.9%	56.5%	1.02×	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	43.5%	42.1%	43.5%	0.97×	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.3%	51.9%	50.7%	1.02×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.7%	48.1%	49.3%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.4%	95.4%	97.0%	0.98×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.3%	92.3%	92.1%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.3%	87.6%	88.5%	0.99×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	74.4%	72.5%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	72.6%	72.5%	73.0%	0.99×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	52.8%	52.5%	51.9%	1.01×	1.90
Over 2.5 goals	47.2%	47.5%	48.1%	0.99×	2.11
Under 1.5 goals	27.4%	27.5%	27.0%	1.02×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	25.6%	27.5%	24.7%	1.11×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	11.7%	12.4%	11.5%	1.08×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	7.7%	7.7%	7.9%	0.98×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	4.6%	4.6%	3.0%	1.53×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.4%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.0%	97.2%	96.7%	1.00×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.4%	86.7%	86.7%	1.00×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	67.3%	67.4%	67.7%	1.00×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	63.3%	61.9%	64.1%	0.97×	1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	36.7%	38.1%	35.9%	1.06×	2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	32.7%	32.6%	32.3%	1.01×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.6%	13.3%	13.3%	1.00×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.0%	2.8%	3.3%	0.86×	35.51
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.6%	2.8%	1.0%	2.86×	35.61

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.6%	92.6%	91.2%	1.01×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	72.8%	71.6%	70.1%	1.02×	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	64.0%	63.2%	66.3%	0.95×	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	36.0%	36.8%	33.7%	1.09×	2.72
Over 1.5 in 1st half	27.2%	28.4%	29.9%	0.95×	3.52
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.4%	7.4%	8.8%	0.84×	13.51

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.8%	79.2%	82.4%	0.96×	1.26
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.6%	79.2%	78.6%	1.01×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.4%	53.1%	56.9%	0.93×	1.89
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.6%	46.9%	43.1%	1.09×	2.13
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.4%	20.8%	21.4%	0.98×	4.80
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.2%	20.8%	17.6%	1.18×	4.81

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa not to score in both halves	89.2%	85.7%	75.8%	1.13×	1.17
Juventus not to score in both halves	67.6%	69.9%	78.4%	0.89×	1.43
Juventus to score in both halves	32.4%	30.1%	21.6%	1.39×	3.32
Genoa to score in both halves	10.8%	14.3%	24.3%	0.59×	6.99

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	47.1%	50.7%	49.2%	1.03×	1.97
Only Juventus scores	34.7%	33.3%	20.5%	1.62×	3.00
Only Genoa scores	10.5%	11.0%	22.6%	0.49×	9.07
Neither team scores	7.7%	7.1%	7.9%	0.90×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.3%	24.9%	25.0%	1.00×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.6%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	19.7%	17.5%	19.2%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	13.9%	12.1%	13.3%	0.91×	8.24
Exactly 0 goals	7.7%	7.6%	7.9%	0.96×	13.14
Exactly 5 goals	7.1%	7.6%	8.6%	0.88×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.6%	4.5%	3.0%	1.49×	22.37

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.8%	37.3%	36.5%	1.02×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	36.0%	37.3%	33.7%	1.11×	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	18.8%	15.7%	21.2%	0.74×	6.37
3+ goals in 1st half	8.4%	7.4%	8.8%	0.84×	13.51

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.6%	45.1%	43.1%	1.05×	2.22
1 goal in 2nd half	33.0%	33.9%	35.7%	0.95×	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	21.4%	22.9%	21.4%	1.07×	4.37

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa not to win both halves	97.2%	97.2%	89.9%	1.08×	1.03
Juventus not to win both halves	81.2%	83.7%	91.1%	0.92×	1.19
Juventus to win both halves	18.8%	16.3%	8.9%	1.83×	6.14
Genoa to win both halves	2.8%	2.8%	10.1%	0.28×	35.67

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to win neither half	68.6%	67.7%	46.7%	1.45×	1.48
Juventus to win either half	68.0%	67.7%	48.4%	1.40×	1.48
Juventus to win neither half	32.0%	32.3%	51.6%	0.63×	3.10
Genoa to win either half	31.4%	32.3%	53.3%	0.61×	3.10

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa not to win to nil	89.5%	88.1%	77.4%	1.14×	1.14
Juventus not to win to nil	65.3%	69.6%	79.5%	0.88×	1.44
Juventus to win to nil	34.7%	30.4%	20.5%	1.48×	3.29
Genoa to win to nil	10.5%	11.9%	22.6%	0.53×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus by 1	25.4%	27.9%	19.3%	1.44×	3.59
Draw	23.8%	24.1%	26.4%	0.91×	4.15
Juventus by 2	17.8%	17.0%	8.6%	1.97×	5.87
Juventus by 3+	14.3%	11.8%	5.9%	2.00×	8.50
Genoa by 1	12.8%	11.8%	22.7%	0.52×	8.51
Genoa by 2	4.5%	2.7%	10.0%	0.27×	36.76
Genoa by 3+	1.4%	2.7%	7.7%	0.35×	36.86