Genoa v Napoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 14
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
6 – 9
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.90 – 0.83
Goals − xG
+0.68 – +1.05
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Genoa win
15.9%
Draw
24.9%
Napoli win
59.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWDLWWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 14.6 xG
conceded 11
from 13.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.68–1.58 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.93–1.42 | 0-1 14% | 42% | 46% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Genoa 1.32 xGNapoli 1.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Genoa attacking right
Napoli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 11' |
 Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Stanislav Lobotka |
| 12' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Morten Frendrup |
| 17' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Eljif Elmas |
| 19' |
Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 19' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eljif Elmas |
| 21' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Amir Rrahmani |
| 25' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 27' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.10 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Leo Østigard |
| 30' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Stanislav Lobotka |
| 39' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Genoa |
Brooke Norton-Cuffy | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 56' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.20 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 60' |
Napoli |
Leonardo Spinazzola | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rasmus Højlund |
| 62' |
Napoli |
Miguel Gutiérrez | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Napoli |
Stanislav Lobotka | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 72' |
Napoli |
Leonardo Spinazzola | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giovane |
| 76' |
Genoa |
Mikael Ellertsson | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Napoli |
Antonio Vergara | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Miguel Gutiérrez |
| 91' |
Napoli |
Miguel Gutiérrez | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 97' |
Genoa |
Junior Messias | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Brooke Norton-Cuffy |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitinha FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Mikael Ellertsson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Justin Bijlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leo Østigard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| Morten Frendrup MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy MC | 76 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.82 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Aarón Martín DML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 66 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Caleb Ekuban Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Junior Messias Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Patrizio Masini Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maxwel Cornet Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Napoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Højlund FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.29 | 0.12 | 0.78 |
| Leonardo Spinazzola DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Miguel Gutiérrez DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.32 |
| Stanislav Lobotka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.34 |
| Antonio Vergara AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Alex Meret GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Amir Rrahmani DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.18 |
| Eljif Elmas AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.39 |
| Juan Jesus DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Alessandro Buongiorno DC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Scott McTominay MC | 48 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Giovane Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Sam Beukema Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathías Olivera Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |