Genoa v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 7
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.23 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.80 – 0.15
Goals − xG
-0.56 – +0.72
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Genoa win
20.8%
Draw
26.6%
Roma win
52.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Roma are finishing above their chances — 2.6 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWDWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 24.4 xG
conceded 8
from 8.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.86–1.53 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.09–1.55 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 52% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Genoa 2.56 xGRoma 0.28 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Genoa attacking right
Roma attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20' |
 Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
 Genoa |
Junior Messias | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 26' |
Genoa |
Patrizio Masini | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Roma |
Devyne Rensch | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Konstantinos Tsimikas |
| 43' |
Genoa |
Junior Messias | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Johan Vásquez |
| 44' |
Genoa |
Caleb Ekuban | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Junior Messias |
| 51' |
Genoa |
Junior Messias | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 52' |
Genoa |
Caleb Ekuban | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jeff Ekhator |
| 54' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Goal | — |
| 54' |
Roma |
Gianluca Mancini | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 60' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Gianluca Mancini |
| 69' |
Genoa |
Mikael Ellertsson | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Roma |
Kouadio Kone | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vitinha |
| 76' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mikael Ellertsson |
| 79' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.81 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Patrizio Masini |
| 89' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jan Ziólkowski |
| 90' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aarón Martín |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrizio Masini MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.81 | 0.92 |
| Stefano Sabelli DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.51 |
| Morten Frendrup MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Leo Østigard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Justin Bijlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mikael Ellertsson DMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Caleb Ekuban AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Junior Messias AMC | 66 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| Jeff Ekhator FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 1.39 |
| Lorenzo Colombo Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 1.43 |
| Vitinha Sub | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.02 | 1.41 |
| Aarón Martín Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donyell Malen FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kouadio Kone MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Niccolò Pisilli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Devyne Rensch DMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini AMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Lorenzo Venturino AMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Bryan Cristante Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Neil El Aynaoui Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Daniele Ghilardi Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan Ziólkowski Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Robinio Vaz Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |