Genoa v Udinese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 20 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 6
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 4
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.51 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-1.30 – +1.13
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Genoa win
45.6%
Draw
26.7%
Udinese win
27.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLDWWLLDW last 10
scored 14
from 14.7 xG
conceded 9
from 14.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.48–1.10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.50–1.09 | 1-1 12% | 48% | 52% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Genoa 1.30 xGUdinese 0.87 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Genoa attacking right
Udinese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Brooke Norton-Cuffy |
| 7' |
Genoa |
Mikael Ellertsson | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Morten Frendrup |
| 24' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 26' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Colombo |
| 34' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.42 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 36' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 37' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mikael Ellertsson |
| 38' |
 Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 40' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 40' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 42' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Brooke Norton-Cuffy |
| 43' |
Udinese |
Christian Kabasele | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 46' |
Genoa |
Junior Messias | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Leo Østigard |
| 57' |
Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 65' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.51 | Open Play | — | Goal | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 76' |
Genoa |
Mikael Ellertsson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Genoa |
Mikael Ellertsson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 79' |
Genoa |
Brooke Norton-Cuffy | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Johan Vásquez |
| 82' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Genoa |
Brooke Norton-Cuffy | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leo Østigard |
| 92' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolò Bertola |
| 95' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 97' |
Genoa |
Alex Amorim | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jeff Ekhator |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Ellertsson DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 0.20 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.11 | 0.56 | 0.25 |
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| Justin Bijlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Leo Østigard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.51 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| Morten Frendrup MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| Vitinha AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Junior Messias AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Tommaso Baldanzi Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jeff Ekhator Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Caleb Ekuban Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Amorim Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Aarón Martín Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolo Zaniolo FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.52 | 0.61 |
| Keinan Davis FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 0.62 |
| Christian Kabasele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Jesper Karlström DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp MC | 88 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue MR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hassane Kamara ML | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Arthur Atta MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jakub Piotrowski Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Juan Arizala Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolò Bertola Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Lennon Miller Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oier Zarraga Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |