Genoa v Venezia — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 17 February 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 7
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 3
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.65 – 0.05
Goals − xG
+0.40 – -0.34
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Genoa win
44.3%
Draw
32.9%
Venezia win
22.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Venezia are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WDLDWLLLLL last 10
scored 10
from 15.4 xG
conceded 19
from 17.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.35–0.91 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Genoa 1.60 xGVenezia 0.34 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Genoa attacking right
Venezia attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Genoa |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 12' |
 Venezia |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
Genoa |
Junior Messias | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Vitinha |
| 26' |
Venezia |
Gaetano Oristanio | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia |
| 31' |
Genoa |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Vitinha |
| 32' |
Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Genoa |
Fabio Miretti | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrea Pinamonti |
| 36' |
Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Venezia |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mikael Ellertsson |
| 44' |
Venezia |
Kike Pérez | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Genoa |
Mattia Bani | 0.54 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 52' |
Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 55' |
Genoa |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Fabio Miretti |
| 66' |
Venezia |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kike Pérez |
| 69' |
Venezia |
Kike Pérez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gianluca Busio |
| 71' |
Genoa |
Aarón Martín | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Morten Frendrup |
| 71' |
Genoa |
Morten Frendrup | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Koni de Winter |
| 74' |
Venezia |
Kike Pérez | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | John Yeboah |
| 79' |
Genoa |
Caleb Ekuban | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jeff Ekhator |
| 81' |
Genoa |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Caleb Ekuban |
| 85' |
Genoa |
Maxwel Cornet | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Caleb Ekuban |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattia Bani DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Morten Frendrup MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.42 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Aarón Martín DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.65 | 0.51 |
| Patrizio Masini MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Nicola Leali GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Koni de Winter DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 88 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.11 | 0.68 |
| Fabio Miretti ML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.24 |
| Junior Messias MR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Vitinha FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Caleb Ekuban Sub | 29 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.16 | 0.51 |
| Maxwel Cornet Sub | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jeff Ekhator Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| Jean Onana Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Venezia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Alessio Zerbin MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joël Schingtienne DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Fali Candé DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Kike Pérez MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| Mikael Ellertsson DML | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| Gaetano Oristanio FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Francesco Zampano DMR | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Fila FW | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mirko Maric Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Gianluca Busio Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| John Yeboah Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Issa Doumbia Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Gytkjær Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |