Getafe v Barcelona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 25 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
4 – 13
On target
0 – 4
Shots in box
3 – 11
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-0.61 – -0.05
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Getafe win
20.4%
Draw
24.2%
Barcelona win
55.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLDWLWLWLD last 10
scored 6
from 9.3 xG
conceded 11
from 12.1 xG
Barcelona are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWWLWLWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 24.5 xG
conceded 8
from 9.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.91–1.68 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.06–2.06 | 1-2 10% | 60% | 57% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Getafe 0.61 xGBarcelona 2.05 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Getafe attacking right
Barcelona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pedri |
| 4' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fermín López |
| 6' |
 Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 11' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Luis Milla |
| 13' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | João Cancelo |
| 27' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Roony Bardghji |
| 35' |
Barcelona |
Roony Bardghji | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jules Koundé |
| 44' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pedri |
| 51' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jules Koundé |
| 52' |
Barcelona |
Jules Koundé | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | João Cancelo |
| 63' |
Barcelona |
Gerard Martín | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 67' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedri |
| 72' |
Getafe |
Mario Martín | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martín Satriano |
| 73' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Robert Lewandowski |
| 80' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Luis Milla |
| 90' |
Barcelona |
Ronald Araújo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 92' |
Barcelona |
Marc Casadó | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | João Cancelo |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Martín MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Martín Satriano FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Domingos Duarte DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Juan Iglesias DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Luis Milla MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Mauro Arambarri MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Davinchi DL | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djené Dakonam DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastián Boselli DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Veljko Birmancevic FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kiko Femenía Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Luis Vázquez Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Alex Sancris Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdelkabir Abqar Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abu Kamara Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dani Olmo AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Robert Lewandowski FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.35 | 0.84 |
| Gerard Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| João Cancelo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 0.90 |
| Pau Cubarsí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| Pedri DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 1.05 |
| Joan García GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Fermín López AML | 84 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.07 | 1.11 |
| Roony Bardghji AMR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.51 |
| Jules Koundé DR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.39 | 0.51 |
| Gavi DMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Marcus Rashford Sub | 28 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.08 | 0.39 |
| Ronald Araújo Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Frenkie de Jong Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álex Balde Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc Casadó Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.46 |