Getafe v Deportivo La Coruna — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 12 Sep 2026, 18:52 UTC

Getafe

1–1

0.99 – 0.94 xG

Deportivo La Coruna

Shots

15 – 10

On target

4 – 3

Shots in box

8 – 9

xG per shot

0.07 – 0.09

Set-piece xG

0.39 – 0.13

Goals − xG

+0.01 – +0.06

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 13 Sep, 11:42 · 5h before kick-off

Getafe win

44.3%

Draw

27.7%

Deportivo La Coruna win

27.9%

442828

Raw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 13.1%
1-1 13.0%
0-0 9.8%
0-1 9.8%
2-0 8.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	40.9%	Under 2.5	59.1%
BTTS yes	46.2%	BTTS no	53.8%
Getafe 1+	73.5%	Getafe 2+	38.3%
Deportivo La Coruna 1+	62.9%	Deportivo La Coruna 2+	26.1%

Expected goals 1.33 – 0.99. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

87/100

Data quality

80/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Getafe have created 0.93 xG a match over their last five while Deportivo La Coruna have allowed 1.90.
At home Getafe average 1.17 xG a match.

Risk factors

Deportivo La Coruna have scored 2.00 a match from 1.33 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.
Deportivo La Coruna have only 4 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Getafe have an estimated 44.3% win probability, against 27.9% for Deportivo La Coruna and 27.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.33 for Getafe and 0.99 for Deportivo La Coruna.

Why Getafe

Getafe have created 0.93 xG a match over their last five while Deportivo La Coruna have allowed 1.90. At home Getafe average 1.17 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.7%. A combined 2.32 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Deportivo La Coruna can win

Deportivo La Coruna carry the stronger rating, 1546 Elo against 1501. Deportivo La Coruna have created 1.33 xG a match over their last five while Getafe have allowed 1.21. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Deportivo La Coruna average 1.78 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Getafe were missing 0.84 expected goal involvements a match against 0.10.

Key players

Getafe's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Martín Satriano (0.40), Enes Ünal (0.31), Ramón Terrats (0.29). Deportivo La Coruna's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (0.60), Luismi Cruz (0.21), Bil Nsongo (0.21).

Availability

Getafe had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.07 expected goal involvements a match. 36% of Getafe's last eleven are new to the club this window. Reported unavailable for Getafe: Zaid Romero (suspended).

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Getafe: 46% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces. Deportivo La Coruna: 41% possession, 10.8 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.11 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-13 14:48 · team_stats 2026-09-13 06:08 · availability 2026-09-13 15:42 · prediction 2026-09-12 18:52 ·

Getafe are the model's most likely outcome at 44.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 13.1%. Confidence 87/100, data quality 80/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Getafe are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WLWLDDLWLD last 10 scored 6 from 7.6 xG conceded 11 from 16.8 xG

Deportivo La Coruna have scored 13 from 12.2 expected and conceded 12 from 12.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DDWWDLDLD last 9 scored 13 from 12.2 xG conceded 12 from 12.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	442828	1.33–0.99	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
dc-xg	472726	1.40–0.98	1-0 13%	43%	47%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	472726	1.39–0.97	1-0 13%	42%	47%	Home ✗
deep	472726	1.40–0.98	1-0 13%	43%	47%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe to win	46.5%	47.6%	46.8%	1.02×	2.10
Draw	27.0%	27.7%	25.2%	1.10×	3.61
Deportivo La Coruna to win	26.4%	27.7%	28.1%	0.98×	3.61

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe & not both score	28.2%	25.5%	25.3%	1.01×	3.93
Getafe & both teams score	18.4%	18.0%	21.7%	0.83×	5.55
Draw & both teams score	17.8%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.55
Deportivo La Coruna & not both score	15.4%	18.0%	14.6%	1.24×	5.55
Deportivo La Coruna & both teams score	11.0%	13.2%	13.7%	0.97×	7.55
Draw & not both score	9.2%	8.4%	5.1%	1.64×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe & under 3.5	35.1%	34.6%	33.0%	1.05×	2.89
Getafe & over 1.5	33.6%	31.0%	34.1%	0.91×	3.22
Getafe & over 2.5	24.6%	21.6%	28.0%	0.77×	4.63
Getafe & under 2.5	22.0%	21.6%	18.9%	1.14×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	21.9%	21.6%	20.1%	1.08×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	21.9%	21.6%	20.1%	1.08×	4.63
Deportivo La Coruna & under 3.5	21.2%	21.6%	21.7%	1.00×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	17.8%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.57
Deportivo La Coruna & over 1.5	17.4%	18.0%	21.2%	0.85×	5.57
Deportivo La Coruna & under 2.5	13.5%	12.9%	11.6%	1.11×	7.77
Getafe & under 1.5	12.9%	12.9%	12.8%	1.00×	7.77
Deportivo La Coruna & over 2.5	12.9%	12.9%	16.7%	0.77×	7.77
Getafe & over 3.5	11.5%	12.9%	13.9%	0.92×	7.78
Draw & under 1.5	9.2%	8.0%	5.1%	1.56×	12.56
Deportivo La Coruna & under 1.5	9.1%	8.0%	7.1%	1.12×	12.56
Draw & over 2.5	5.1%	8.0%	5.2%	1.52×	12.57
Draw & over 3.5	5.1%	8.0%	5.2%	1.52×	12.57
Deportivo La Coruna & over 3.5	5.2%	8.0%	6.6%	1.21×	12.57

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (1UP)	60.1%	63.0%	63.2%	1.00×	1.59
Deportivo La Coruna (1UP)	42.2%	39.3%	47.1%	0.84×	2.54

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (2UP)	46.5%	49.8%	48.7%	1.02×	2.01
Deportivo La Coruna (2UP)	26.4%	24.8%	29.7%	0.83×	4.04

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	38.1%	36.0%	33.0%	1.09×	2.78
Getafe to win 2nd half	36.5%	35.9%	39.5%	0.91×	2.78
Deportivo La Coruna to win 2nd half	25.4%	26.3%	27.7%	0.95×	3.80

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo La Coruna under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.7%	86.7%	84.5%	1.03×	1.15
Deportivo La Coruna under 0.5 in 2nd half	54.6%	53.4%	48.3%	1.11×	1.87
Deportivo La Coruna over 0.5 in 2nd half	45.4%	46.6%	51.7%	0.90×	2.15
Deportivo La Coruna over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.3%	13.3%	15.5%	0.86×	7.52

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.2%	82.4%	80.0%	1.03×	1.21
Getafe over 0.5 in 2nd half	54.6%	53.4%	58.7%	0.91×	1.87
Getafe under 0.5 in 2nd half	45.4%	46.6%	41.3%	1.13×	2.15
Getafe over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.8%	17.6%	20.0%	0.88×	5.68

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo La Coruna (+2.5)	91.5%	92.1%	90.0%	1.02×	1.09
Deportivo La Coruna (+1.5)	77.6%	78.3%	79.2%	0.99×	1.28
Getafe (+0.5)	73.6%	73.7%	71.9%	1.03×	1.36
Deportivo La Coruna (+0.5)	53.5%	52.0%	53.2%	0.98×	1.92
Getafe (-0.5)	46.5%	48.0%	46.8%	1.03×	2.08
Deportivo La Coruna (-0.5)	26.4%	26.3%	28.1%	0.93×	3.80
Getafe (-1.5)	22.4%	21.7%	20.8%	1.04×	4.61
Getafe (-2.5)	8.5%	7.9%	10.0%	0.79×	12.66

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo La Coruna to concede	75.3%	78.7%	80.4%	0.98×	1.27
Deportivo La Coruna clean sheet	24.7%	21.3%	19.6%	1.09×	4.70

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo La Coruna to concede in 1st half	45.6%	50.6%	48.1%	1.05×	1.98
Deportivo La Coruna clean sheet in 1st half	54.4%	49.4%	51.9%	0.95×	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo La Coruna to concede in 2nd half	54.6%	53.0%	58.7%	0.90×	1.89
Deportivo La Coruna clean sheet in 2nd half	45.4%	47.0%	41.3%	1.14×	2.13

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo La Coruna under 3.5 goals	98.2%	97.4%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Deportivo La Coruna under 2.5 goals	92.3%	92.2%	90.0%	1.02×	1.09
Deportivo La Coruna under 1.5 goals	74.2%	71.9%	68.1%	1.05×	1.39
Deportivo La Coruna over 0.5 goals	62.6%	63.5%	69.7%	0.91×	1.58
Deportivo La Coruna under 0.5 goals	37.4%	36.5%	30.3%	1.21×	2.74
Deportivo La Coruna over 1.5 goals	25.8%	28.1%	31.9%	0.88×	3.55
Deportivo La Coruna over 2.5 goals	7.7%	7.8%	10.0%	0.78×	12.79
Deportivo La Coruna over 3.5 goals	1.8%	2.6%	2.7%	0.94×	38.84

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo La Coruna under 1.5 in 1st half	94.4%	94.3%	93.3%	1.01×	1.06
Deportivo La Coruna under 0.5 in 1st half	68.5%	68.6%	63.4%	1.08×	1.46
Deportivo La Coruna over 0.5 in 1st half	31.5%	31.4%	36.6%	0.86×	3.19
Deportivo La Coruna over 1.5 in 1st half	5.6%	5.8%	6.7%	0.85×	17.39

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo La Coruna scores equally in both	46.5%	48.3%	42.2%	1.15×	2.07
Deportivo La Coruna scores more in 2nd half	34.4%	34.2%	37.1%	0.92×	2.93
Deportivo La Coruna scores more in 1st half	19.1%	18.0%	20.8%	0.87×	5.55

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (away no bet)	63.3%	62.0%	65.1%	0.95×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	36.7%	38.0%	34.9%	1.09×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo La Coruna even goals	57.0%	56.9%	53.9%	1.05×	1.76
Deportivo La Coruna odd goals	43.0%	43.1%	46.1%	0.94×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	89.4%	87.8%	86.9%	1.01×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	10.6%	12.2%	13.1%	0.93×	8.22

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	56.1%	60.0%	62.4%	0.96×	1.67
Both halves under 1.5 goals	43.9%	40.0%	37.6%	1.06×	2.50

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	49.2%	46.0%	52.3%	0.88×	2.18
Getafe to score 2+ in a row	34.1%	29.1%	34.3%	0.85×	3.43
Deportivo La Coruna to score 2+ in a row	19.3%	16.4%	23.6%	0.69×	6.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row	16.0%	16.3%	18.9%	0.86×	6.15
Getafe to score 3+ in a row	11.6%	12.1%	13.0%	0.93×	8.25
Deportivo La Coruna to score 3+ in a row	4.5%	2.6%	6.4%	0.41×	37.89

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	12.9%	11.4%	12.8%	0.89×	8.80
1-1	12.7%	11.4%	15.1%	0.75×	8.80
0-0	9.2%	7.4%	5.1%	1.45×	13.53
0-1	9.1%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.53
2-0	9.0%	7.4%	6.2%	1.19×	13.53
2-1	8.9%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.53
1-2	6.2%	7.4%	8.3%	0.89×	13.54
0-2	4.5%	1.7%	4.6%	0.38×	57.56
0-3	1.5%	1.7%	2.0%	0.87×	57.57
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.99×	57.58
1-3	2.0%	1.7%	1.9%	0.93×	57.57
1-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.49×	57.58
2-2	4.4%	1.7%	4.4%	0.40×	57.56
2-3	1.4%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	57.57
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.5%	3.49×	57.58
3-0	4.2%	1.7%	4.6%	0.38×	57.56
3-1	4.1%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	57.56
3-2	2.0%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	57.57
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.0%	1.74×	57.58
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.4%	4.64×	57.58
4-0	1.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	57.57
4-1	1.5%	1.7%	2.0%	0.87×	57.57
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	57.58
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	57.58
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	13.89×	57.58
Any other score	1.8%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	57.57

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (2nd half DNB)	59.0%	60.7%	58.7%	1.03×	1.65
Deportivo La Coruna (2nd half DNB)	41.0%	39.3%	41.3%	0.95×	2.55

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe leading at HT (DNB)	64.5%	65.8%	62.3%	1.06×	1.52
Deportivo La Coruna leading at HT (DNB)	35.5%	34.2%	37.7%	0.91×	2.92

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe or draw (1X)	73.6%	72.3%	71.9%	1.01×	1.38
Getafe or Deportivo La Coruna (12)	73.0%	72.3%	74.8%	0.97×	1.38
Deportivo La Coruna or draw (X2)	53.5%	52.4%	53.2%	0.98×	1.91

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe or draw at HT	80.9%	84.3%	78.5%	1.07×	1.19
Deportivo La Coruna or draw at HT	65.4%	66.2%	64.5%	1.03×	1.51
Getafe or Deportivo La Coruna at HT	53.7%	47.7%	56.8%	0.84×	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe or draw (1UP)	73.6%	80.2%	78.2%	1.03×	1.25
Deportivo La Coruna or draw (1UP)	53.5%	59.2%	60.1%	0.99×	1.69

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe or draw in 2nd half	74.6%	73.7%	72.3%	1.02×	1.36
Deportivo La Coruna or draw in 2nd half	63.5%	64.1%	60.5%	1.06×	1.56
Getafe or Deportivo La Coruna in 2nd half	61.9%	64.0%	67.0%	0.95×	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.8%	69.3%	62.2%	1.12×	1.44
Neither half drawn	33.2%	30.7%	37.8%	0.81×	3.26

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (DNB)	63.8%	63.1%	62.5%	1.01×	1.59
Deportivo La Coruna (DNB)	36.2%	36.9%	37.5%	0.98×	2.71

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe to score first	53.3%	53.9%	55.4%	0.97×	1.86
Deportivo La Coruna to score first	37.5%	32.8%	39.6%	0.83×	3.05
No goal scored	9.2%	7.6%	5.1%	1.48×	13.22

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	52.8%	51.6%	44.7%	1.15×	1.94
Both teams to score	47.2%	48.4%	55.3%	0.88×	2.07

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	44.7%	41.7%	35.4%	1.18×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	34.5%	34.4%	40.3%	0.85×	2.91
Both score & under 2.5	12.7%	12.3%	15.1%	0.81×	8.15
Not both score & over 2.5	8.1%	8.4%	9.5%	0.89×	11.94

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	89.5%	85.4%	86.2%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	10.5%	14.6%	13.8%	1.05×	6.86

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	75.2%	74.9%	71.4%	1.05×	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	24.8%	25.1%	28.6%	0.88×	3.99

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	64.4%	66.6%	60.3%	1.10×	1.50
Both score 2nd half only	21.2%	20.8%	23.1%	0.90×	4.81
Both score 1st half only	10.8%	10.7%	11.2%	0.95×	9.35
Both score in both halves	3.6%	5.0%	5.6%	0.89×	20.01

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	85.6%	86.0%	83.3%	1.03×	1.16
Both teams to score by HT	14.4%	14.0%	16.7%	0.84×	7.15

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	52.8%	53.4%	45.2%	1.18×	1.87
A goal in each half	47.2%	46.6%	54.8%	0.85×	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.0%	46.9%	49.8%	0.94×	2.13
0-1 goals	31.2%	30.9%	24.8%	1.25×	3.24
4-6 goals	20.7%	23.0%	23.4%	0.98×	4.34
7+ goals	1.1%	1.9%	2.2%	0.83×	54.01

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo La Coruna to score exactly 0	37.4%	35.8%	30.3%	1.18×	2.80
Deportivo La Coruna to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.8%	38.0%	0.94×	2.80
Deportivo La Coruna to score exactly 2	18.1%	19.5%	22.0%	0.89×	5.12
Deportivo La Coruna to score 3+	7.7%	8.8%	10.0%	0.88×	11.40

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe to score exactly 1	34.5%	32.6%	38.4%	0.85×	3.06
Getafe to score exactly 0	24.7%	23.4%	19.6%	1.19×	4.28
Getafe to score exactly 2	24.2%	23.4%	22.7%	1.03×	4.28
Getafe to score 3+	16.6%	19.2%	19.7%	0.97×	5.22

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	46.3%	52.3%	43.2%	1.21×	1.91
Getafe leading at HT	34.6%	33.8%	35.5%	0.95×	2.96
Deportivo La Coruna leading at HT	19.1%	15.7%	21.5%	0.73×	6.38

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe -1: 2	53.5%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Getafe -1: X	24.1%	23.7%	—	—	4.23
Getafe -1: 1	22.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.23

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo La Coruna (0:1)	53.5%	51.2%	53.2%	0.96×	1.95
Draw (0:1)	24.1%	24.4%	26.2%	0.93×	4.10
Getafe (0:1)	22.4%	24.4%	20.8%	1.17×	4.10

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo La Coruna (0:2)	77.6%	79.6%	79.2%	1.00×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	14.0%	10.9%	11.0%	0.99×	9.21
Getafe (0:2)	8.5%	7.7%	10.0%	0.77×	12.98

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo La Coruna (0:3)	91.5%	92.7%	90.0%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.9%	5.9%	7.1%	0.83×	16.95
Getafe (0:3)	2.6%	2.4%	3.0%	0.79×	42.29

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo La Coruna (0:4)	97.4%	98.1%	97.0%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.9%	1.2%	2.4%	0.52×	81.76
Getafe (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	0.7%	1.63×	81.89

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (1:0)	73.6%	72.7%	71.9%	1.01×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	16.9%	17.1%	17.7%	0.96×	5.86
Deportivo La Coruna (1:0)	9.5%	7.0%	10.6%	0.66×	14.27

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (2:0)	90.5%	93.7%	89.4%	1.05×	1.07
Draw (2:0)	6.9%	6.6%	6.8%	0.96×	15.24
Deportivo La Coruna (2:0)	2.6%	2.4%	3.9%	0.63×	41.35

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.3%	48.2%	51.3%	0.94×	2.08
Halves equal	27.1%	26.5%	22.5%	1.18×	3.77
1st half highest scoring	26.6%	26.5%	26.3%	1.01×	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe to concede	62.6%	63.9%	69.7%	0.92×	1.56
Getafe clean sheet	37.4%	36.1%	30.3%	1.19×	2.77

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe clean sheet in 1st half	68.5%	68.9%	63.4%	1.09×	1.45
Getafe to concede in 1st half	31.5%	31.1%	36.6%	0.85×	3.22

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe clean sheet in 2nd half	54.6%	53.3%	48.3%	1.10×	1.88
Getafe to concede in 2nd half	45.4%	46.7%	51.7%	0.90×	2.14

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe under 3.5 goals	94.6%	92.1%	92.7%	0.99×	1.09
Getafe under 2.5 goals	83.4%	81.9%	80.3%	1.02×	1.22
Getafe over 0.5 goals	75.3%	77.4%	80.4%	0.96×	1.29
Getafe under 1.5 goals	59.2%	58.6%	57.8%	1.01×	1.71
Getafe over 1.5 goals	40.8%	41.4%	42.2%	0.98×	2.42
Getafe under 0.5 goals	24.7%	22.6%	19.6%	1.16×	4.42
Getafe over 2.5 goals	16.6%	18.1%	19.7%	0.92×	5.53
Getafe over 3.5 goals	5.4%	7.9%	7.3%	1.07×	12.70

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe under 1.5 in 1st half	87.5%	89.8%	86.0%	1.04×	1.11
Getafe over 0.5 in 1st half	45.6%	50.8%	48.1%	1.06×	1.97
Getafe under 0.5 in 1st half	54.4%	49.2%	51.9%	0.95×	2.03
Getafe over 1.5 in 1st half	12.5%	10.2%	14.0%	0.73×	9.79

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe scores equally in both	38.1%	37.7%	32.5%	1.16×	2.65
Getafe scores more in 2nd half	36.4%	37.6%	40.0%	0.94×	2.66
Getafe scores more in 1st half	25.5%	28.0%	27.7%	1.01×	3.57

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	50.5%	51.5%	47.2%	1.09×	1.94
Deportivo La Coruna (home no bet)	49.5%	48.5%	52.8%	0.92×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe even goals	53.0%	50.4%	47.4%	1.06×	1.98
Getafe odd goals	47.0%	49.6%	52.6%	0.94×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	37.3%	38.7%	32.1%	1.21×	2.59
HT 1-0	22.7%	24.2%	22.7%	1.06×	4.14
HT 0-1	14.1%	10.9%	16.2%	0.67×	9.14
HT 1-1	8.6%	7.1%	10.1%	0.71×	14.00
HT 2-0	6.9%	7.1%	6.2%	1.14×	14.03
Any other HT score	3.1%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.48
HT 0-2	2.7%	2.3%	3.1%	0.74×	43.51
HT 2-1	2.6%	2.3%	3.2%	0.71×	43.51
HT 1-2	1.6%	2.3%	1.5%	1.53×	43.59
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.3%	1.2%	1.83×	43.67

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe at HT / Getafe at FT	27.6%	27.0%	26.5%	1.02×	3.70
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	17.7%	16.8%	14.0%	1.20×	5.97
Draw at HT / Getafe at FT	16.9%	16.8%	18.0%	0.93×	5.97
Deportivo La Coruna at HT / Deportivo La Coruna at FT	12.9%	12.7%	12.9%	0.99×	7.89
Draw at HT / Deportivo La Coruna at FT	11.8%	12.7%	11.5%	1.10×	7.90
Getafe at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	5.2%	1.14×	16.73
Deportivo La Coruna at HT / Draw at FT	4.2%	3.5%	6.1%	0.57×	28.76
Deportivo La Coruna at HT / Getafe at FT	2.0%	3.5%	2.7%	1.26×	28.84
Getafe at HT / Deportivo La Coruna at FT	1.7%	3.5%	4.0%	0.87×	28.85

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe to score last	53.3%	52.0%	55.7%	0.93×	1.92
Deportivo La Coruna to score last	37.5%	38.5%	39.3%	0.98×	2.60
No goal scored	9.2%	7.6%	5.1%	1.48×	13.22

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	90.8%	92.5%	94.9%	0.98×	1.08
Getafe to lead by 1 at any time	60.1%	61.2%	63.2%	0.97×	1.63
Deportivo La Coruna to lead by 1 at any time	42.2%	39.2%	47.1%	0.83×	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	41.3%	39.2%	41.6%	0.94×	2.55
Getafe to lead by 2 at any time	27.7%	25.5%	26.5%	0.96×	3.92
Deportivo La Coruna to lead by 2 at any time	13.7%	10.5%	15.5%	0.68×	9.53
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.6%	10.5%	16.7%	0.63×	9.53
Getafe to lead by 3 at any time	10.1%	10.4%	12.2%	0.85×	9.60
Deportivo La Coruna to lead by 3 at any time	3.5%	1.6%	4.6%	0.36×	60.91

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.3%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.4%	83.3%	81.2%	1.03×	1.20
1-3 goals	69.0%	68.9%	69.5%	0.99×	1.45
2-6 goals	67.7%	68.9%	73.1%	0.94×	1.45
2-5 goals	65.3%	68.9%	69.5%	0.99×	1.45
2-4 goals	59.4%	59.3%	61.5%	0.96×	1.69
1-2 goals	48.2%	48.5%	45.3%	1.07×	2.06
2-3 goals	47.0%	48.5%	49.8%	0.97×	2.06
3-6 goals	41.5%	43.6%	47.6%	0.92×	2.29
3-5 goals	39.1%	39.3%	44.0%	0.89×	2.55
3-4 goals	33.2%	35.3%	36.0%	0.98×	2.83
4-6 goals	20.7%	24.8%	23.4%	1.06×	4.03
4-5 goals	18.3%	18.9%	19.8%	0.95×	5.30
5-6 goals	8.3%	9.0%	11.7%	0.77×	11.13
7+ goals	1.1%	2.6%	2.2%	1.14×	38.96

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe never behind	48.6%	56.7%	52.9%	1.07×	1.76
Deportivo La Coruna never behind	30.7%	35.4%	36.8%	0.96×	2.82

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.6%	50.9%	53.7%	0.95×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.4%	49.1%	46.3%	1.06×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.9%	57.5%	53.6%	1.07×	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	43.1%	42.5%	46.4%	0.92×	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.1%	52.0%	49.7%	1.05×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.9%	48.0%	50.3%	0.95×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.5%	95.4%	94.1%	1.01×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	90.8%	92.2%	94.9%	0.97×	1.09
Under 4.5 goals	90.6%	92.2%	86.2%	1.07×	1.09
Under 3.5 goals	78.2%	77.2%	74.5%	1.04×	1.30
Over 1.5 goals	68.8%	66.0%	75.2%	0.88×	1.52
Under 2.5 goals	57.4%	58.5%	50.3%	1.16×	1.71
Over 2.5 goals	42.6%	41.5%	49.7%	0.84×	2.41
Under 1.5 goals	31.2%	34.0%	24.8%	1.37×	2.94
Over 3.5 goals	21.8%	22.8%	25.5%	0.89×	4.39
Under 0.5 goals	9.2%	7.8%	5.1%	1.53×	12.81
Over 4.5 goals	9.4%	7.8%	13.8%	0.56×	12.81
Over 5.5 goals	3.5%	4.6%	5.9%	0.79×	21.72

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.9%	97.2%	97.7%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.3%	97.1%	93.6%	1.04×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	89.3%	86.6%	84.3%	1.03×	1.16
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	72.5%	72.3%	66.3%	1.09×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	57.7%	55.2%	66.7%	0.83×	1.81
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	42.3%	44.8%	33.3%	1.35×	2.23
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	27.5%	27.7%	33.7%	0.82×	3.60
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	10.7%	13.4%	15.7%	0.86×	7.46
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.7%	2.9%	6.4%	0.45×	35.05
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.1%	2.8%	2.3%	1.22×	35.12

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.2%	92.7%	89.9%	1.03×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	74.0%	71.3%	70.8%	1.01×	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	62.8%	63.5%	67.9%	0.94×	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	37.3%	36.5%	32.1%	1.14×	2.74
Over 1.5 in 1st half	26.0%	28.7%	29.2%	0.98×	3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.8%	7.3%	10.1%	0.72×	13.68

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	83.5%	82.8%	79.7%	1.04×	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	75.2%	79.7%	81.8%	0.97×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	59.3%	54.8%	53.7%	1.02×	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	40.7%	45.2%	46.3%	0.98×	2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.8%	20.3%	18.2%	1.12×	4.92
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	16.5%	17.2%	20.4%	0.85×	5.81

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo La Coruna not to score in both halves	85.7%	85.7%	81.4%	1.05×	1.17
Getafe not to score in both halves	75.1%	78.1%	73.7%	1.06×	1.28
Getafe to score in both halves	24.9%	21.9%	26.3%	0.83×	4.57
Deportivo La Coruna to score in both halves	14.3%	14.3%	18.6%	0.77×	6.99

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	47.2%	50.4%	55.3%	0.91×	1.98
Only Getafe scores	28.2%	26.1%	25.3%	1.03×	3.83
Only Deportivo La Coruna scores	15.4%	16.0%	14.6%	1.10×	6.25
Neither team scores	9.2%	7.1%	5.1%	1.40×	14.00

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.2%	24.7%	25.7%	0.96×	4.05
Exactly 1 goals	22.0%	22.4%	19.8%	1.13×	4.46
Exactly 3 goals	20.8%	22.4%	24.3%	0.92×	4.46
Exactly 4 goals	12.4%	12.0%	11.8%	1.02×	8.30
Exactly 0 goals	9.2%	7.8%	5.1%	1.53×	12.83
Exactly 5 goals	5.9%	7.8%	8.1%	0.96×	12.84
6 or more goals	3.5%	4.5%	5.9%	0.77×	22.20

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	37.3%	37.1%	32.1%	1.16×	2.70
1 goal in 1st half	36.8%	37.1%	38.8%	0.96×	2.70
2 goals in 1st half	18.2%	15.3%	19.2%	0.79×	6.55
3+ goals in 1st half	7.8%	7.3%	10.1%	0.72×	13.68

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	40.7%	44.3%	46.3%	0.96×	2.26
1 goal in 2nd half	34.6%	33.4%	35.6%	0.94×	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	24.8%	23.2%	18.2%	1.27×	4.32

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo La Coruna not to win both halves	95.2%	97.2%	94.6%	1.03×	1.03
Getafe not to win both halves	87.4%	87.9%	88.1%	1.00×	1.14
Getafe to win both halves	12.6%	12.1%	11.9%	1.02×	8.27
Deportivo La Coruna to win both halves	4.8%	2.8%	5.4%	0.53×	35.21

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo La Coruna to win neither half	60.4%	64.9%	56.2%	1.16×	1.54
Getafe to win either half	58.5%	59.5%	63.0%	0.94×	1.68
Getafe to win neither half	41.5%	40.5%	37.0%	1.10×	2.47
Deportivo La Coruna to win either half	39.6%	35.1%	43.8%	0.80×	2.85

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo La Coruna not to win to nil	84.6%	83.2%	85.4%	0.97×	1.20
Getafe not to win to nil	71.8%	75.1%	74.7%	1.01×	1.33
Getafe to win to nil	28.2%	24.9%	25.3%	0.98×	4.02
Deportivo La Coruna to win to nil	15.4%	16.8%	14.6%	1.16×	5.94

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.0%	27.7%	25.2%	1.10×	3.61
Getafe by 1	24.1%	24.2%	26.2%	0.92×	4.14
Deportivo La Coruna by 1	16.9%	16.9%	17.7%	0.95×	5.92
Getafe by 2	14.0%	11.7%	11.0%	1.07×	8.52
Getafe by 3+	8.5%	7.3%	10.0%	0.73×	13.73
Deportivo La Coruna by 2	6.9%	7.3%	6.8%	1.06×	13.74
Deportivo La Coruna by 3+	2.6%	2.8%	3.9%	0.73×	35.54

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Getafe 0.99 xGDeportivo La Coruna 0.94 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Getafe attacking right Deportivo La Coruna attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
8'	Getafe	Enes Ünal	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Martín Satriano
8'	Getafe	Martín Satriano	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Johan Mojica
15'	Getafe	Martín Satriano	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Mario Martín
18'	Getafe	Iván Azón	0.10	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Martín Satriano
24'	Getafe	Martín Satriano	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Iván Azón
27'	Getafe	Nemanja Gudelj	0.02	Set Piece	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
34'	Deportivo La Coruna	Giacomo Quagliata	0.28	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
35'	Getafe	Ramón Terrats	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Martín Satriano
37'	Getafe	Ramón Terrats	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Enes Ünal
39'	Deportivo La Coruna	Giacomo Quagliata	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Luismi Cruz
40'	Deportivo La Coruna	Mario Soriano	0.11	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Luismi Cruz
47'	Deportivo La Coruna	Luismi Cruz	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Giacomo Quagliata
49'	Deportivo La Coruna	Bil Nsongo	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Luismi Cruz
52'	Getafe	Mario Martín	0.34	From Corner	Left Foot	Shot On Post	Nemanja Gudelj
59'	Getafe	Johan Mojica	0.03	Direct Freekick	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
62'	Getafe	Enes Ünal	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
64'	Deportivo La Coruna	Giménez	0.05	From Corner	—	Blocked Shot	Luismi Cruz
65'	Getafe	Ramón Terrats	0.14	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Iván Azón
75'	Deportivo La Coruna	Giacomo Quagliata	0.03	From Corner	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Lucas Noubi
75'	Getafe	Francho Serrano	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Orel Mangala
77'	Deportivo La Coruna	Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	0.29	Open Play	—	Goal	Yeremay Hernández
84'	Deportivo La Coruna	Zakaria Eddahchouri	0.01	Open Play	—	Blocked Shot	Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
87'	Deportivo La Coruna	Giménez	0.05	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Mario Soriano
89'	Getafe	Mario Martín	0.04	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Djené Dakonam
92'	Getafe	Saba Sazonov	0.04	Open Play	—	Blocked Shot	Johan Mojica

Players

Getafe

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Mario Martín MC	90	0	0	2	1	0.38	0.03	0.26
Enes Ünal FW	90	0	0	2	1	0.08	0.04	0.24
Martín Satriano ML	90	0	0	3	3	0.07	0.25	0.32
Johan Mojica DL	90	0	0	1	2	0.03	0.06	0.07
Nemanja Gudelj DC	90	0	0	1	1	0.02	0.34	0.00
Djené Dakonam DC	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.04	0.28
David Soria GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04
Orel Mangala MC	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.01	0.16
Ramón Terrats MR	87	1	0	3	0	0.26	0.00	0.26
Sebastián Boselli DR	87	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.12
Iván Azón FW	79	0	1	1	2	0.10	0.16	0.30
Francho Serrano Sub	11	0	0	1	0	0.01	0.00	0.05
Saba Sazonov Sub	3	0	0	1	0	0.04	0.00	0.08
Joselu Pérez Sub	3	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Davinchi Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04

Deportivo La Coruna

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Giacomo Quagliata DL	90	0	0	3	1	0.33	0.02	0.33
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang FW	90	1	0	1	2	0.29	0.29	0.69
Mario Soriano MC	90	0	0	1	1	0.11	0.05	0.49
Giménez DC	90	0	0	2	0	0.10	0.00	0.04
Leo Román GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04
Ximo Navarro DR	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04
Lucas Noubi DC	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.03	0.04
Lorenzo Amatucci MC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.07
Bil Nsongo FW	74	0	0	1	0	0.07	0.00	0.07
Luismi Cruz MC	74	0	0	1	4	0.02	0.26	0.23
Marc Casadó DMC	65	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.05
Adama Traoré Sub	25	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.31
Zakaria Eddahchouri Sub	16	0	0	1	0	0.01	0.00	0.01
Yeremay Hernández Sub	16	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.29	0.29

Getafe v Deportivo La Coruna — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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