Getafe v Malaga — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Getafe

11:00

Malaga

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 343h before kick-off

Getafe win

44.4%

model 41.0%

Draw

27.8%

model 29.2%

Malaga win

27.8%

model 29.8%

442828

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 13.7%
1-1 13.3%
0-0 11.5%
0-1 11.2%
2-0 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	36.6%	Under 2.5	63.4%
BTTS yes	43.2%	BTTS no	56.8%
Getafe 1+	69.6%	Getafe 2+	33.4%
Malaga 1+	62.0%	Malaga 2+	25.2%

Expected goals 1.19 – 0.97. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

95/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Not both teams to score

GG/NG · usually 45%

56.3% fair odds 1.78

moderate signal · 821 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Malaga not to score in both halves

Score both halves · usually 82%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

At home Getafe average 1.00 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Getafe have an estimated 44.4% win probability, against 27.8% for Malaga and 27.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.19 for Getafe and 0.97 for Malaga.

Why Getafe

At home Getafe average 1.00 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.8%. A combined 2.16 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.19 to 0.97. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Malaga can win

Malaga carry the stronger rating, 1596 Elo against 1493. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Getafe were missing 0.75 expected goal involvements a match against 0.15.

Key players

Getafe's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Martín Satriano (0.39), Enes Ünal (0.32), Ramón Terrats (0.27). Malaga's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Chupe (0.43), Carlos Dotor (0.25), David Larrubia (0.15).

Availability

45% of Getafe's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Getafe: 48% possession, 7.6 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.18 xG a match from set pieces. Malaga: 50% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.26 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Getafe are the model's most likely outcome at 44.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 13.7%. Confidence 95/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Getafe are finishing below their chances — 2.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WLLDWLWLWL last 10 scored 6 from 8.1 xG conceded 10 from 12.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	412930	1.19–0.97	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	453024	1.17–0.77	1-0 17%	31%	37%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe to win	46.2%	47.4%	47.1%	1.01×	2.11
Draw	30.1%	30.4%	25.0%	1.22×	3.29
Malaga to win	23.7%	24.5%	28.1%	0.87×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe & not both score	32.3%	29.7%	25.5%	1.17×	3.37
Draw & both teams score	16.2%	17.9%	20.1%	0.89×	5.58
Malaga & not both score	16.2%	17.9%	14.6%	1.23×	5.58
Getafe & both teams score	13.9%	13.3%	21.7%	0.61×	7.54
Draw & not both score	13.9%	13.3%	5.0%	2.64×	7.54
Malaga & both teams score	7.6%	8.4%	13.7%	0.61×	11.93

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe & under 3.5	38.5%	34.9%	33.3%	1.05×	2.86
Getafe & over 1.5	29.5%	26.0%	34.3%	0.76×	3.84
Getafe & under 2.5	26.7%	26.0%	19.1%	1.37×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	26.8%	26.0%	19.8%	1.31×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	26.8%	26.0%	19.8%	1.31×	3.84
Malaga & under 3.5	20.9%	21.6%	21.8%	0.99×	4.62
Getafe & over 2.5	19.5%	18.0%	28.1%	0.64×	5.56
Getafe & under 1.5	16.7%	18.0%	12.9%	1.39×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.2%	18.0%	20.1%	0.90×	5.56
Malaga & under 2.5	14.9%	12.9%	11.7%	1.10×	7.77
Draw & under 1.5	13.9%	12.9%	5.0%	2.57×	7.77
Malaga & over 1.5	13.0%	12.9%	21.1%	0.61×	7.77
Malaga & under 1.5	10.7%	12.9%	7.2%	1.80×	7.77
Malaga & over 2.5	8.9%	7.9%	16.6%	0.48×	12.70
Getafe & over 3.5	7.7%	7.9%	13.9%	0.57×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	3.3%	4.8%	5.3%	0.91×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	3.3%	4.8%	5.3%	0.91×	20.93
Malaga & over 3.5	2.8%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (1UP)	57.4%	58.2%	63.4%	0.92×	1.72
Malaga (1UP)	36.9%	34.0%	47.0%	0.72×	2.94

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (2UP)	46.2%	49.6%	48.9%	1.01×	2.02
Malaga (2UP)	23.7%	23.5%	29.7%	0.79×	4.25

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	44.1%	41.3%	33.0%	1.25×	2.42
Getafe to win 2nd half	34.5%	34.3%	39.5%	0.87×	2.92
Malaga to win 2nd half	21.4%	22.9%	27.7%	0.83×	4.36

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga (+2.5)	93.1%	92.1%	90.1%	1.02×	1.09
Malaga (+1.5)	79.5%	78.5%	79.2%	0.99×	1.27
Getafe (+0.5)	76.3%	78.4%	71.9%	1.09×	1.28
Malaga (+0.5)	53.8%	52.4%	52.9%	0.99×	1.91
Getafe (-0.5)	46.2%	47.6%	47.1%	1.01×	2.10
Malaga (-0.5)	23.7%	21.6%	28.1%	0.77×	4.64
Getafe (-1.5)	20.5%	21.5%	20.8%	1.03×	4.65
Getafe (-2.5)	6.9%	7.9%	9.9%	0.80×	12.65

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga to concede	70.0%	72.5%	80.6%	0.90×	1.38
Malaga clean sheet	30.0%	27.5%	19.4%	1.41×	3.64

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga clean sheet in 1st half	57.1%	57.9%	51.8%	1.12×	1.73
Malaga to concede in 1st half	42.9%	42.1%	48.2%	0.87×	2.37

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga under 6.5 corners	90.0%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Malaga under 5.5 corners	82.1%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Malaga under 4.5 corners	70.2%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Malaga over 2.5 corners	64.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Malaga under 3.5 corners	54.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Malaga over 3.5 corners	46.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Malaga under 2.5 corners	35.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Malaga over 4.5 corners	29.8%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Malaga over 5.5 corners	17.9%	18.5%	—	—	5.39
Malaga over 6.5 corners	10.0%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga under 3.5 goals	99.2%	97.6%	97.4%	1.00×	1.03
Malaga under 2.5 goals	95.6%	97.5%	90.2%	1.08×	1.03
Malaga under 1.5 goals	81.9%	81.4%	68.3%	1.19×	1.23
Malaga over 0.5 goals	53.8%	53.7%	69.6%	0.77×	1.86
Malaga under 0.5 goals	46.2%	46.3%	30.4%	1.53×	2.16
Malaga over 1.5 goals	18.1%	18.6%	31.7%	0.59×	5.38
Malaga over 2.5 goals	4.4%	2.5%	9.8%	0.25×	40.75
Malaga over 3.5 goals	0.8%	2.4%	2.6%	0.93×	40.94

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga under 1.5 in 1st half	95.6%	95.6%	93.5%	1.02×	1.05
Malaga under 0.5 in 1st half	72.0%	68.5%	63.5%	1.08×	1.46
Malaga over 0.5 in 1st half	28.0%	31.5%	36.5%	0.86×	3.17
Malaga over 1.5 in 1st half	4.4%	4.4%	6.5%	0.67×	22.82

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (away no bet)	60.6%	62.1%	65.3%	0.95×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	39.4%	37.9%	34.7%	1.09×	2.64

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga even goals	60.7%	59.0%	54.1%	1.09×	1.70
Malaga odd goals	39.3%	41.0%	45.9%	0.89×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	93.4%	92.7%	87.2%	1.06×	1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals	6.6%	7.3%	12.8%	0.57×	13.68

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	54.7%	50.8%	37.6%	1.35×	1.97
Not both halves under 1.5	45.3%	49.2%	62.4%	0.79×	2.03

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	40.4%	38.2%	52.3%	0.73×	2.62
Getafe to score 2+ in a row	29.0%	25.2%	34.3%	0.73×	3.97
Malaga to score 2+ in a row	13.8%	12.1%	23.5%	0.52×	8.24
Either team to score 3+ in a row	11.6%	12.1%	18.9%	0.64×	8.28
Getafe to score 3+ in a row	9.0%	5.7%	13.1%	0.43×	17.63
Malaga to score 3+ in a row	2.7%	2.6%	6.3%	0.41×	38.79

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe corners (+3.5)	92.7%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Getafe corners (+2.5)	87.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Getafe corners (+1.5)	80.4%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Malaga corners (+3.5)	73.8%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Malaga corners (+2.5)	63.7%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Malaga corners (+1.5)	52.2%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Getafe corners (-1.5)	47.8%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Getafe corners (-2.5)	36.3%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Getafe corners (-3.5)	26.2%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Malaga corners (-1.5)	19.6%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Malaga corners (-2.5)	12.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Malaga corners (-3.5)	7.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	53.0%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	27.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	19.1%	22.7%	—	—	4.41

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	86.8%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	80.9%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	73.2%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	63.8%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	58.6%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	53.0%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	47.0%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	41.4%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	36.2%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	26.8%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
Over 11.5 corners	19.1%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Over 12.5 corners	13.2%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	16.7%	13.8%	12.9%	1.06×	7.27
0-0	13.9%	11.5%	5.0%	2.28×	8.73
1-1	12.9%	11.4%	14.9%	0.77×	8.73
0-1	10.7%	11.4%	7.2%	1.60×	8.74
2-0	10.0%	11.4%	6.3%	1.82×	8.74
2-1	7.8%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.47
1-2	5.0%	1.7%	8.4%	0.20×	58.50
0-2	4.1%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.50
0-3	1.1%	1.7%	2.0%	0.85×	58.52
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.95×	58.52
1-3	1.3%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.52
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.40×	58.52
2-2	3.0%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.51
2-3	0.8%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.52
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.40×	58.52
3-0	4.0%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.50
3-1	3.1%	1.7%	3.6%	0.47×	58.51
3-2	1.2%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.52
3-3	0.3%	1.7%	1.0%	1.70×	58.52
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.54×	58.52
4-0	1.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.52
4-1	0.9%	1.7%	2.0%	0.85×	58.52
4-2	0.4%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.52
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.8%	2.27×	58.52
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	13.62×	58.52
Any other score	0.9%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.52

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe leading at HT (DNB)	65.8%	73.9%	62.4%	1.19×	1.35
Malaga leading at HT (DNB)	34.2%	26.1%	37.6%	0.69×	3.84

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe or draw (1X)	76.3%	75.5%	71.9%	1.05×	1.32
Getafe or Malaga (12)	69.9%	69.6%	75.0%	0.93×	1.44
Malaga or draw (X2)	53.8%	52.6%	52.9%	0.99×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe or draw at HT	82.6%	84.4%	78.6%	1.07×	1.19
Malaga or draw at HT	66.5%	66.3%	64.5%	1.03×	1.51
Getafe or Malaga at HT	51.0%	47.5%	56.7%	0.84×	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe or draw (1UP)	76.3%	83.9%	78.2%	1.07×	1.19
Malaga or draw (1UP)	53.8%	59.3%	59.9%	0.99×	1.69

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe or draw in 2nd half	78.6%	77.1%	72.3%	1.07×	1.30
Malaga or draw in 2nd half	65.5%	65.7%	60.5%	1.09×	1.52
Getafe or Malaga in 2nd half	55.9%	58.7%	67.0%	0.88×	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	71.5%	70.4%	62.4%	1.13×	1.42
Neither half drawn	28.5%	29.6%	37.6%	0.79×	3.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (DNB)	66.1%	67.2%	62.6%	1.07×	1.49
Malaga (DNB)	33.9%	32.9%	37.4%	0.88×	3.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe to score first	52.5%	53.9%	55.6%	0.97×	1.86
Malaga to score first	33.7%	27.0%	39.5%	0.68×	3.70
No goal scored	13.9%	10.5%	5.0%	2.09×	9.52

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	62.4%	56.5%	44.8%	1.26×	1.77
Both teams to score	37.6%	43.5%	55.2%	0.79×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	55.5%	47.2%	35.5%	1.33×	2.12
Both score & over 2.5	24.8%	27.8%	40.4%	0.69×	3.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.9%	12.3%	14.9%	0.83×	8.12
Not both score & over 2.5	6.9%	8.4%	9.4%	0.89×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	93.9%	89.1%	86.3%	1.03×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	6.1%	10.9%	13.7%	0.80×	9.20

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	83.0%	73.8%	71.6%	1.03×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	17.0%	26.2%	28.4%	0.92×	3.81

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	73.0%	68.4%	60.4%	1.13×	1.46
Both score 2nd half only	14.9%	10.6%	23.0%	0.46×	9.44
Both score 1st half only	10.0%	6.8%	11.3%	0.60×	14.64
Both score in both halves	2.0%	4.8%	5.5%	0.87×	20.72

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	88.0%	86.0%	83.3%	1.03×	1.16
Both teams to score by HT	12.0%	14.0%	16.7%	0.84×	7.12

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	61.0%	58.6%	45.3%	1.29×	1.71
A goal in each half	39.0%	41.4%	54.7%	0.76×	2.41

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.9%	42.1%	49.9%	0.84×	2.38
0-1 goals	41.3%	42.1%	24.8%	1.69×	2.38
4-6 goals	13.4%	17.0%	23.3%	0.73×	5.90
7+ goals	0.4%	1.8%	2.1%	0.85×	55.22

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga to score exactly 0	46.2%	42.9%	30.4%	1.41×	2.33
Malaga to score exactly 1	35.7%	36.0%	38.0%	0.95×	2.78
Malaga to score exactly 2	13.8%	12.8%	22.1%	0.58×	7.80
Malaga to score 3+	4.4%	4.5%	9.8%	0.46×	22.01

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe to score exactly 1	36.1%	35.6%	38.4%	0.93×	2.81
Getafe to score exactly 0	30.0%	32.6%	19.4%	1.68×	3.06
Getafe to score exactly 2	21.7%	23.3%	22.7%	1.02×	4.30
Getafe to score 3+	12.1%	14.3%	19.7%	0.73×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	49.0%	52.5%	43.3%	1.21×	1.91
Getafe leading at HT	33.5%	33.7%	35.5%	0.95×	2.97
Malaga leading at HT	17.5%	15.6%	21.4%	0.73×	6.39

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe -1: 2	53.8%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Getafe -1: X	25.7%	26.6%	—	—	3.77
Getafe -1: 1	20.5%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga (0:1)	53.8%	51.2%	52.9%	0.97×	1.95
Draw (0:1)	25.7%	27.0%	26.3%	1.03×	3.70
Getafe (0:1)	20.5%	24.3%	20.8%	1.17×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga (0:2)	79.5%	79.5%	79.2%	1.00×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.5%	11.0%	11.0%	1.00×	9.10
Getafe (0:2)	6.9%	7.7%	9.9%	0.78×	12.96

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga (0:3)	93.1%	92.6%	90.1%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.1%	5.8%	7.0%	0.83×	17.22
Getafe (0:3)	1.9%	2.4%	3.0%	0.79×	42.13

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga (0:4)	98.1%	98.1%	97.0%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	2.4%	0.50×	83.44
Getafe (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	0.8%	1.59×	83.57

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (1:0)	76.3%	78.4%	71.9%	1.09×	1.28
Draw (1:0)	16.5%	17.0%	17.7%	0.96×	5.87
Malaga (1:0)	7.2%	6.9%	10.5%	0.66×	14.47

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (2:0)	92.8%	94.0%	89.5%	1.05×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.6%	6.4%	6.9%	0.93×	15.55
Malaga (2:0)	1.6%	2.3%	3.8%	0.60×	44.41

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	39.7%	39.7%	51.2%	0.78×	2.52
Halves equal	30.9%	29.3%	22.4%	1.31×	3.42
1st half highest scoring	29.4%	26.5%	26.5%	1.00×	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe to concede	53.8%	53.1%	69.6%	0.76×	1.88
Getafe clean sheet	46.2%	46.9%	30.4%	1.54×	2.13

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe clean sheet in 1st half	72.0%	68.1%	63.5%	1.07×	1.47
Getafe to concede in 1st half	28.0%	31.9%	36.5%	0.87×	3.14

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe over 2.5 corners	81.7%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Getafe under 6.5 corners	74.0%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Getafe over 3.5 corners	67.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Getafe under 5.5 corners	62.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Getafe over 4.5 corners	52.2%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Getafe under 4.5 corners	47.8%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Getafe over 5.5 corners	37.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Getafe under 3.5 corners	32.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Getafe over 6.5 corners	26.0%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Getafe under 2.5 corners	18.3%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe under 3.5 goals	96.6%	96.4%	92.7%	1.04×	1.04
Getafe under 2.5 goals	87.9%	87.2%	80.3%	1.09×	1.15
Getafe over 0.5 goals	70.0%	67.9%	80.6%	0.84×	1.47
Getafe under 1.5 goals	66.2%	67.8%	57.7%	1.18×	1.47
Getafe over 1.5 goals	33.8%	32.2%	42.3%	0.76×	3.11
Getafe under 0.5 goals	30.0%	32.1%	19.4%	1.65×	3.11
Getafe over 2.5 goals	12.1%	12.8%	19.7%	0.65×	7.84
Getafe over 3.5 goals	3.4%	3.6%	7.3%	0.50×	27.43

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe under 1.5 in 1st half	89.1%	90.0%	86.0%	1.05×	1.11
Getafe under 0.5 in 1st half	57.1%	57.5%	51.8%	1.11×	1.74
Getafe over 0.5 in 1st half	42.9%	42.5%	48.2%	0.88×	2.35
Getafe over 1.5 in 1st half	10.9%	10.0%	14.0%	0.72×	9.99

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	55.9%	56.7%	47.0%	1.20×	1.77
Malaga (home no bet)	44.1%	43.3%	53.0%	0.82×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe even goals	54.5%	50.6%	47.4%	1.07×	1.98
Getafe odd goals	45.5%	49.4%	52.6%	0.94×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	41.1%	41.2%	32.1%	1.28×	2.43
HT 1-0	23.0%	24.2%	22.8%	1.06×	4.13
HT 0-1	13.5%	11.0%	16.4%	0.67×	9.10
HT 1-1	7.6%	7.1%	10.2%	0.69×	14.17
HT 2-0	6.4%	7.0%	6.3%	1.12×	14.19
HT 0-2	2.2%	2.3%	2.9%	0.79×	43.90
Any other HT score	2.4%	2.3%	4.5%	0.50×	43.89
HT 2-1	2.1%	2.3%	3.1%	0.72×	43.91
HT 1-2	1.2%	2.3%	1.5%	1.51×	43.98
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.3%	1.3%	1.81×	44.05

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe at HT / Getafe at FT	27.8%	26.7%	26.5%	1.01×	3.75
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	21.6%	21.7%	13.8%	1.57×	4.60
Draw at HT / Getafe at FT	16.9%	16.8%	18.1%	0.93×	5.95
Malaga at HT / Malaga at FT	12.1%	12.7%	12.7%	1.00×	7.90
Draw at HT / Malaga at FT	10.5%	12.6%	11.6%	1.09×	7.91
Getafe at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	5.2%	0.67×	28.81
Malaga at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.5%	6.2%	0.56×	28.84
Malaga at HT / Getafe at FT	1.5%	3.5%	2.8%	1.25×	28.93
Getafe at HT / Malaga at FT	1.1%	3.5%	4.0%	0.86×	28.95

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe to score last	52.5%	51.9%	55.8%	0.93×	1.93
Malaga to score last	33.7%	33.2%	39.2%	0.85×	3.01
No goal scored	13.9%	9.9%	5.0%	1.97×	10.10

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	86.1%	90.3%	95.0%	0.95×	1.11
Getafe to lead by 1 at any time	57.4%	55.2%	63.4%	0.87×	1.81
Malaga to lead by 1 at any time	36.9%	34.8%	47.0%	0.74×	2.88
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	34.4%	29.4%	41.5%	0.71×	3.40
Getafe to lead by 2 at any time	24.4%	19.6%	26.5%	0.74×	5.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	10.1%	10.4%	16.6%	0.62×	9.66
Malaga to lead by 2 at any time	10.1%	10.4%	15.3%	0.67×	9.66
Getafe to lead by 3 at any time	8.0%	6.6%	12.2%	0.54×	15.20
Malaga to lead by 3 at any time	2.1%	1.6%	4.5%	0.34×	64.42

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe most corners	59.8%	55.4%	—	—	1.80
Malaga most corners	29.0%	31.0%	—	—	3.22
Corners level	11.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.6%	83.5%	89.3%	0.94×	1.20
1-4 goals	81.1%	83.5%	81.6%	1.02×	1.20
1-3 goals	72.3%	72.4%	69.8%	1.04×	1.38
2-6 goals	58.3%	59.2%	73.1%	0.81×	1.69
2-5 goals	57.2%	59.2%	69.5%	0.85×	1.69
1-2 goals	54.5%	53.2%	45.4%	1.17×	1.88
2-4 goals	53.7%	53.2%	61.7%	0.86×	1.88
2-3 goals	44.9%	43.6%	49.9%	0.87×	2.29
3-6 goals	31.2%	35.4%	47.7%	0.74×	2.83
3-5 goals	30.1%	35.4%	44.0%	0.80×	2.83
3-4 goals	26.6%	30.2%	36.3%	0.83×	3.31
4-6 goals	13.4%	14.9%	23.3%	0.64×	6.72
4-5 goals	12.3%	14.9%	19.7%	0.75×	6.73
5-6 goals	4.6%	2.5%	11.5%	0.22×	39.30
7+ goals	0.4%	2.5%	2.1%	1.19×	39.50

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe never behind	49.3%	56.7%	53.0%	1.07×	1.76
Malaga never behind	28.7%	30.0%	36.6%	0.82×	3.33

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.0%	50.8%	53.7%	0.95×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.0%	49.2%	46.3%	1.06×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.4%	57.6%	53.5%	1.08×	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	41.6%	42.4%	46.5%	0.91×	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	55.7%	59.3%	49.7%	1.19×	1.69
Odd goals in 2nd half	44.3%	40.7%	50.3%	0.81×	2.46

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.4%	95.5%	94.2%	1.01×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	95.0%	92.3%	86.4%	1.07×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	86.1%	87.6%	95.0%	0.92×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	86.2%	87.6%	74.7%	1.17×	1.14
Under 2.5 goals	68.3%	66.2%	50.3%	1.32×	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	58.7%	58.8%	75.2%	0.78×	1.70
Under 1.5 goals	41.3%	41.2%	24.8%	1.66×	2.43
Over 2.5 goals	31.7%	33.8%	49.7%	0.68×	2.96
Under 0.5 goals	13.9%	12.4%	5.0%	2.46×	8.09
Over 3.5 goals	13.8%	12.4%	25.3%	0.49×	8.09
Over 4.5 goals	5.0%	7.7%	13.6%	0.57×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	1.6%	4.5%	5.8%	0.78×	22.26

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.6%	97.3%	97.8%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.4%	97.3%	93.7%	1.04×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	94.5%	92.5%	84.6%	1.09×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	83.2%	81.1%	66.5%	1.22×	1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	56.6%	55.5%	33.3%	1.67×	1.80
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	43.4%	44.5%	66.7%	0.67×	2.25
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	16.8%	18.9%	33.5%	0.56×	5.28
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	5.5%	7.5%	15.4%	0.49×	13.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	1.6%	2.7%	6.3%	0.44×	36.37
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.4%	2.7%	2.2%	1.24×	36.41

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	93.9%	92.9%	89.9%	1.03×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	77.6%	78.9%	70.9%	1.11×	1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half	58.9%	63.7%	67.9%	0.94×	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	41.1%	36.3%	32.1%	1.13×	2.76
Over 1.5 in 1st half	22.4%	21.1%	29.1%	0.73×	4.74
Over 2.5 in 1st half	6.1%	7.1%	10.1%	0.71×	14.07

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	90.3%	88.8%	79.9%	1.11×	1.13
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	70.4%	77.6%	53.8%	1.44×	1.29
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	66.2%	67.0%	81.8%	0.82×	1.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	33.8%	33.0%	18.2%	1.81×	3.03
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	29.6%	22.4%	46.2%	0.48×	4.47
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	9.7%	11.2%	20.1%	0.56×	8.94

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga not to score in both halves	90.0%	86.2%	81.6%	1.06×	1.16
Getafe not to score in both halves	79.7%	78.3%	73.6%	1.06×	1.28
Getafe to score in both halves	20.3%	21.7%	26.4%	0.82×	4.62
Malaga to score in both halves	10.0%	13.8%	18.4%	0.75×	7.26

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	37.6%	39.8%	55.2%	0.72×	2.51
Only Getafe scores	32.3%	33.4%	25.5%	1.31×	3.00
Only Malaga scores	16.2%	16.1%	14.6%	1.10×	6.22
Neither team scores	13.9%	11.0%	5.0%	2.18×	9.13

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 1 goals	27.4%	24.9%	20.0%	1.25×	4.01
Exactly 2 goals	27.1%	24.9%	25.6%	0.97×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	17.8%	17.4%	24.5%	0.71×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	13.9%	12.1%	5.0%	2.41×	8.28
Exactly 4 goals	8.8%	7.6%	11.9%	0.64×	13.09
Exactly 5 goals	3.5%	4.4%	7.9%	0.56×	22.69
6 or more goals	1.6%	4.4%	5.8%	0.76×	22.72

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	36.7%	40.0%	35.7%	1.12×	2.50
No goals in 2nd half	33.8%	33.7%	18.2%	1.85×	2.97
2+ goals in 2nd half	29.6%	29.9%	46.2%	0.65×	3.34

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga not to win both halves	96.3%	97.2%	94.7%	1.03×	1.03
Getafe not to win both halves	88.4%	88.0%	88.2%	1.00×	1.14
Getafe to win both halves	11.6%	12.0%	11.8%	1.01×	8.36
Malaga to win both halves	3.7%	2.8%	5.3%	0.53×	35.47

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga to win neither half	64.9%	65.3%	56.2%	1.16×	1.53
Getafe to win either half	56.4%	59.4%	63.1%	0.94×	1.68
Getafe to win neither half	43.6%	40.6%	36.9%	1.10×	2.46
Malaga to win either half	35.1%	34.7%	43.8%	0.79×	2.88

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga not to win to nil	83.8%	83.0%	85.4%	0.97×	1.20
Getafe not to win to nil	67.7%	69.6%	74.5%	0.93×	1.44
Getafe to win to nil	32.3%	30.4%	25.5%	1.19×	3.29
Malaga to win to nil	16.2%	17.0%	14.6%	1.17×	5.89

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe by 1	25.7%	27.8%	26.3%	1.06×	3.60
Draw	30.1%	27.6%	25.0%	1.10×	3.63
Malaga by 1	16.5%	16.9%	17.7%	0.96×	5.90
Getafe by 2	13.5%	11.8%	11.0%	1.07×	8.47
Getafe by 3+	6.9%	7.2%	9.9%	0.73×	13.80
Malaga by 2	5.6%	7.2%	6.9%	1.05×	13.81
Malaga by 3+	1.6%	2.7%	3.8%	0.72×	37.09