Getafe v Malaga — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 20 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 11
On target
7 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 6
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.37 – 0.20
Goals − xG
-0.19 – -0.66
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyGetafe win
43.3%
model 43.6%
Draw
29.4%
model 30.7%
Malaga win
27.3%
model 25.7%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-0 16.3%
- 0-0 14.2%
- 1-1 13.1%
- 0-1 11.4%
- 2-0 9.3%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 31.0% | Under 2.5 | 69.0% |
| BTTS yes | 37.7% | BTTS no | 62.3% |
| Getafe 1+ | 68.2% | Getafe 2+ | 31.8% |
| Malaga 1+ | 55.3% | Malaga 2+ | 19.3% |
Expected goals 1.15 – 0.81. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
99/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)
Over/Under (whole line) · usually 33%
55.7% fair odds 1.80
strong signal · 764 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Malaga (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 79%
83.6% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- At home Getafe average 1.10 xG a match.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Getafe have an estimated 43.3% win probability, against 29.4% for the draw and 27.3% for Malaga. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.15 for Getafe and 0.81 for Malaga.
Why Getafe
At home Getafe average 1.10 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 29.4%. A combined 1.95 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Malaga can win
Malaga carry the stronger rating, 1567 Elo against 1494. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Getafe were missing 1.21 expected goal involvements a match against 0.21.
Key players
Getafe's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Martín Satriano (0.34), Enes Ünal (0.30), Ramón Terrats (0.28). Malaga's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Chupe (0.46), David Larrubia (0.17), Pablo Martínez (0.15).
Availability
2 of Getafe's top three contributors did not start their last match. Getafe had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.12 expected goal involvements a match. 45% of Getafe's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Getafe: 38% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.26 xG a match from set pieces. Malaga: 51% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.26 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-19 13:53 · team_stats 2026-09-19 06:04 · availability 2026-09-19 15:09 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Getafe are the model's most likely outcome at 43.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 16.3%. Confidence 99/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Getafe are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLWLDDLWLD last 10
scored 6
from 7.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.8 xG
Malaga are finishing below their chances — 2.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLDDLLDLD last 10
scored 7
from 9.1 xG
conceded 19
from 19.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.15–0.81 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg | 1.09–0.78 | 1-0 17% | 29% | 36% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.11–0.80 | 1-0 16% | 30% | 37% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe to win | 46.2% | 47.2% | 46.6% | 1.01× | 2.12 |
| Draw | 30.1% | 30.5% | 24.9% | 1.22× | 3.28 |
| Malaga to win | 23.7% | 24.5% | 28.6% | 0.86× | 4.09 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe & not both score | 32.3% | 29.6% | 25.1% | 1.18× | 3.38 |
| Draw & both teams score | 16.2% | 18.0% | 20.1% | 0.89× | 5.57 |
| Malaga & not both score | 16.2% | 18.0% | 14.7% | 1.22× | 5.57 |
| Getafe & both teams score | 13.9% | 13.3% | 21.7% | 0.61× | 7.52 |
| Draw & not both score | 13.9% | 13.3% | 5.0% | 2.66× | 7.52 |
| Malaga & both teams score | 7.6% | 8.3% | 14.0% | 0.60× | 12.00 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe & under 3.5 | 38.5% | 34.8% | 32.7% | 1.06× | 2.87 |
| Getafe & over 1.5 | 29.5% | 26.1% | 33.9% | 0.77× | 3.84 |
| Getafe & under 2.5 | 26.7% | 26.1% | 18.7% | 1.39× | 3.84 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 26.8% | 26.1% | 20.0% | 1.31× | 3.84 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 26.8% | 26.1% | 20.0% | 1.31× | 3.84 |
| Malaga & under 3.5 | 20.9% | 21.6% | 21.8% | 0.99× | 4.63 |
| Getafe & over 2.5 | 19.5% | 18.0% | 28.0% | 0.64× | 5.56 |
| Getafe & under 1.5 | 16.7% | 18.0% | 12.8% | 1.41× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 16.2% | 18.0% | 20.1% | 0.90× | 5.56 |
| Malaga & under 2.5 | 14.9% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 1.10× | 7.77 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 13.9% | 12.9% | 5.0% | 2.58× | 7.77 |
| Malaga & over 1.5 | 13.0% | 12.9% | 21.5% | 0.60× | 7.77 |
| Malaga & under 1.5 | 10.7% | 12.9% | 7.2% | 1.79× | 7.78 |
| Malaga & over 2.5 | 8.9% | 7.9% | 17.0% | 0.47× | 12.62 |
| Getafe & over 3.5 | 7.7% | 7.9% | 14.0% | 0.57× | 12.63 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 0.94× | 20.84 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 0.94× | 20.84 |
| Malaga & over 3.5 | 2.8% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 0.69× | 20.84 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe (1UP) | 57.4% | 58.2% | 63.0% | 0.92× | 1.72 |
| Malaga (1UP) | 36.9% | 34.1% | 47.3% | 0.72× | 2.93 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe (2UP) | 46.2% | 49.3% | 48.4% | 1.02× | 2.03 |
| Malaga (2UP) | 23.7% | 23.5% | 30.1% | 0.78× | 4.25 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half drawn | 44.1% | 41.1% | 33.2% | 1.24× | 2.43 |
| Getafe to win 2nd half | 34.5% | 34.3% | 39.1% | 0.88× | 2.91 |
| Malaga to win 2nd half | 21.4% | 23.0% | 27.8% | 0.83× | 4.35 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga under 1.5 in 2nd half | 92.6% | 92.0% | 84.5% | 1.09× | 1.09 |
| Malaga under 0.5 in 2nd half | 64.2% | 59.8% | 47.9% | 1.25× | 1.67 |
| Malaga over 0.5 in 2nd half | 35.8% | 40.2% | 52.1% | 0.77× | 2.49 |
| Malaga over 1.5 in 2nd half | 7.4% | 8.0% | 15.5% | 0.52× | 12.45 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe under 1.5 in 2nd half | 86.4% | 87.6% | 80.0% | 1.10× | 1.14 |
| Getafe under 0.5 in 2nd half | 52.6% | 53.3% | 41.5% | 1.29× | 1.88 |
| Getafe over 0.5 in 2nd half | 47.4% | 46.7% | 58.5% | 0.80× | 2.14 |
| Getafe over 1.5 in 2nd half | 13.6% | 12.4% | 20.0% | 0.62× | 8.07 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga (+2.5) | 93.1% | 92.1% | 89.9% | 1.02× | 1.09 |
| Malaga (+1.5) | 79.5% | 78.5% | 79.3% | 0.99× | 1.27 |
| Getafe (+0.5) | 76.3% | 78.5% | 71.4% | 1.10× | 1.27 |
| Malaga (+0.5) | 53.8% | 52.5% | 53.4% | 0.98× | 1.91 |
| Getafe (-0.5) | 46.2% | 47.5% | 46.6% | 1.02× | 2.11 |
| Malaga (-0.5) | 23.7% | 21.5% | 28.6% | 0.75× | 4.65 |
| Getafe (-1.5) | 20.5% | 21.5% | 20.7% | 1.04× | 4.65 |
| Getafe (-2.5) | 6.9% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 0.78× | 12.68 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga to concede | 70.0% | 72.5% | 80.4% | 0.90× | 1.38 |
| Malaga clean sheet | 30.0% | 27.5% | 19.6% | 1.40× | 3.64 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga clean sheet in 1st half | 57.1% | 58.1% | 52.0% | 1.12× | 1.72 |
| Malaga to concede in 1st half | 42.9% | 41.9% | 48.0% | 0.87× | 2.39 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga clean sheet in 2nd half | 52.6% | 52.8% | 41.5% | 1.27× | 1.89 |
| Malaga to concede in 2nd half | 47.4% | 47.2% | 58.5% | 0.81× | 2.12 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga under 6.5 corners | 89.0% | 85.2% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Malaga under 5.5 corners | 80.7% | 81.4% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Malaga under 4.5 corners | 68.4% | 67.6% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Malaga over 2.5 corners | 66.6% | 67.6% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Malaga under 3.5 corners | 52.0% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Malaga over 3.5 corners | 48.0% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Malaga under 2.5 corners | 33.4% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.08 |
| Malaga over 4.5 corners | 31.6% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.08 |
| Malaga over 5.5 corners | 19.3% | 18.6% | — | — | 5.37 |
| Malaga over 6.5 corners | 11.0% | 14.8% | — | — | 6.78 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga under 3.5 goals | 99.2% | 97.5% | 97.2% | 1.00× | 1.03 |
| Malaga under 2.5 goals | 95.6% | 97.5% | 89.7% | 1.09× | 1.03 |
| Malaga under 1.5 goals | 81.9% | 81.4% | 67.9% | 1.20× | 1.23 |
| Malaga over 0.5 goals | 53.8% | 53.6% | 70.1% | 0.76× | 1.87 |
| Malaga under 0.5 goals | 46.2% | 46.4% | 29.9% | 1.55× | 2.15 |
| Malaga over 1.5 goals | 18.1% | 18.6% | 32.1% | 0.58× | 5.37 |
| Malaga over 2.5 goals | 4.4% | 2.5% | 10.3% | 0.24× | 39.79 |
| Malaga over 3.5 goals | 0.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 0.89× | 39.98 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga under 1.5 in 1st half | 95.6% | 95.6% | 92.8% | 1.03× | 1.05 |
| Malaga under 0.5 in 1st half | 72.0% | 68.2% | 63.3% | 1.08× | 1.47 |
| Malaga over 0.5 in 1st half | 28.0% | 31.8% | 36.7% | 0.87× | 3.15 |
| Malaga over 1.5 in 1st half | 4.4% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 0.61× | 22.82 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga scores equally in both | 53.2% | 50.3% | 41.8% | 1.20× | 1.99 |
| Malaga scores more in 2nd half | 27.6% | 26.5% | 37.3% | 0.71× | 3.78 |
| Malaga scores more in 1st half | 19.3% | 18.2% | 21.0% | 0.87× | 5.50 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe (away no bet) | 60.6% | 61.9% | 65.1% | 0.95× | 1.62 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 39.4% | 38.1% | 34.9% | 1.09× | 2.63 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga even goals | 60.7% | 59.1% | 53.5% | 1.10× | 1.69 |
| Malaga odd goals | 39.3% | 40.9% | 46.5% | 0.88× | 2.44 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 93.4% | 92.8% | 86.5% | 1.07× | 1.08 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 6.6% | 7.2% | 13.5% | 0.53× | 13.84 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 54.7% | 50.8% | 37.3% | 1.36× | 1.97 |
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 45.3% | 49.2% | 62.7% | 0.79× | 2.03 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 40.4% | 38.2% | 52.6% | 0.73× | 2.62 |
| Getafe to score 2+ in a row | 29.0% | 25.4% | 34.4% | 0.74× | 3.94 |
| Malaga to score 2+ in a row | 13.8% | 12.2% | 23.9% | 0.51× | 8.19 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 11.6% | 12.2% | 19.1% | 0.64× | 8.23 |
| Getafe to score 3+ in a row | 9.0% | 5.7% | 13.0% | 0.44× | 17.47 |
| Malaga to score 3+ in a row | 2.7% | 2.5% | 6.6% | 0.38× | 39.63 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe corners (+3.5) | 91.5% | 89.6% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Getafe corners (+2.5) | 86.0% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Getafe corners (+1.5) | 78.2% | 74.8% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Malaga corners (+3.5) | 76.5% | 74.8% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Malaga corners (+2.5) | 66.8% | 65.9% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Malaga corners (+1.5) | 55.4% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Getafe corners (-1.5) | 44.6% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Getafe corners (-2.5) | 33.2% | 34.1% | — | — | 2.93 |
| Getafe corners (-3.5) | 23.5% | 25.2% | — | — | 3.96 |
| Malaga corners (-1.5) | 21.8% | 25.2% | — | — | 3.97 |
| Malaga corners (-2.5) | 14.0% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.44 |
| Malaga corners (-3.5) | 8.5% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.58 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 53.8% | 45.3% | — | — | 2.21 |
| 9-11 corners | 27.7% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
| 12+ corners | 18.5% | 22.6% | — | — | 4.43 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 87.3% | 83.1% | — | — | 1.20 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 81.5% | 80.7% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 73.9% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 64.6% | 63.3% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 57.9% | 57.9% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 53.8% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 46.2% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 42.1% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.38 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 35.4% | 36.7% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 26.1% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 18.5% | 19.3% | — | — | 5.19 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 12.7% | 16.9% | — | — | 5.91 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.1% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 16.7% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 1.08× | 7.24 |
| 0-0 | 13.9% | 11.5% | 5.0% | 2.30× | 8.72 |
| 1-1 | 12.9% | 11.5% | 15.1% | 0.76× | 8.73 |
| 0-1 | 10.7% | 11.5% | 7.2% | 1.60× | 8.73 |
| 2-0 | 10.0% | 11.5% | 6.1% | 1.88× | 8.73 |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 0.76× | 13.50 |
| 1-2 | 5.0% | 1.7% | 8.3% | 0.21× | 58.33 |
| 0-2 | 4.1% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 0.37× | 58.33 |
| 0-3 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.83× | 58.35 |
| 0-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 2.01× | 58.35 |
| 1-3 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.83× | 58.35 |
| 1-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.52× | 58.35 |
| 2-2 | 3.0% | 1.7% | 4.3% | 0.40× | 58.34 |
| 2-3 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.74× | 58.35 |
| 2-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 2.82× | 58.35 |
| 3-0 | 4.0% | 1.7% | 4.5% | 0.38× | 58.33 |
| 3-1 | 3.1% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 0.49× | 58.34 |
| 3-2 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 0.54× | 58.35 |
| 3-3 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.76× | 58.35 |
| 3-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 4.70× | 58.35 |
| 4-0 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.01× | 58.35 |
| 4-1 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.83× | 58.35 |
| 4-2 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.28× | 58.35 |
| 4-3 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.35× | 58.35 |
| 4-4 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 14.09× | 58.35 |
| Any other score | 0.9% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 0.56× | 58.35 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe (2nd half DNB) | 61.7% | 61.3% | 58.5% | 1.05× | 1.63 |
| Malaga (2nd half DNB) | 38.3% | 38.7% | 41.5% | 0.93× | 2.58 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe leading at HT (DNB) | 65.8% | 73.3% | 62.1% | 1.18× | 1.36 |
| Malaga leading at HT (DNB) | 34.2% | 26.7% | 37.9% | 0.70× | 3.75 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe or draw (1X) | 76.3% | 75.5% | 71.4% | 1.06× | 1.32 |
| Getafe or Malaga (12) | 69.9% | 69.6% | 75.1% | 0.93× | 1.44 |
| Malaga or draw (X2) | 53.8% | 52.8% | 53.4% | 0.99× | 1.89 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe or draw at HT | 82.6% | 84.4% | 78.4% | 1.08× | 1.18 |
| Malaga or draw at HT | 66.5% | 66.4% | 64.6% | 1.03× | 1.51 |
| Getafe or Malaga at HT | 51.0% | 47.6% | 56.8% | 0.84× | 2.10 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe or draw (1UP) | 76.3% | 84.0% | 77.8% | 1.08× | 1.19 |
| Malaga or draw (1UP) | 53.8% | 59.6% | 60.2% | 0.99× | 1.68 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe or draw in 2nd half | 78.6% | 77.0% | 72.2% | 1.07× | 1.30 |
| Malaga or draw in 2nd half | 65.5% | 65.7% | 60.9% | 1.08× | 1.52 |
| Getafe or Malaga in 2nd half | 55.9% | 58.9% | 66.8% | 0.88× | 1.70 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 71.5% | 69.4% | 62.4% | 1.11× | 1.44 |
| Neither half drawn | 28.5% | 30.6% | 37.6% | 0.81× | 3.27 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe (DNB) | 66.1% | 67.2% | 62.0% | 1.08× | 1.49 |
| Malaga (DNB) | 33.9% | 32.8% | 38.0% | 0.86× | 3.05 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe to score first | 52.5% | 53.8% | 55.4% | 0.97× | 1.86 |
| Malaga to score first | 33.7% | 27.2% | 39.8% | 0.68× | 3.68 |
| No goal scored | 13.9% | 10.4% | 5.0% | 2.09× | 9.58 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score | 62.4% | 56.5% | 44.5% | 1.27× | 1.77 |
| Both teams to score | 37.6% | 43.5% | 55.5% | 0.78× | 2.30 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 55.5% | 47.3% | 35.2% | 1.34× | 2.12 |
| Both score & over 2.5 | 24.8% | 27.8% | 40.5% | 0.69× | 3.59 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 12.9% | 12.4% | 15.1% | 0.82× | 8.10 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 0.88× | 12.03 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 93.9% | 89.0% | 86.1% | 1.03× | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 6.1% | 11.0% | 13.9% | 0.79× | 9.12 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 83.0% | 74.6% | 71.2% | 1.05× | 1.34 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 17.0% | 25.4% | 28.8% | 0.88× | 3.93 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 73.0% | 68.8% | 60.0% | 1.15× | 1.45 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 14.9% | 10.7% | 23.3% | 0.46× | 9.34 |
| Both score 1st half only | 10.0% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 0.62× | 14.29 |
| Both score in both halves | 2.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 0.86× | 20.64 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 88.0% | 86.6% | 83.2% | 1.04× | 1.16 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 12.0% | 13.4% | 16.8% | 0.80× | 7.46 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half without a goal | 61.0% | 59.0% | 45.2% | 1.30× | 1.70 |
| A goal in each half | 39.0% | 41.0% | 54.8% | 0.75× | 2.44 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 44.9% | 42.0% | 49.6% | 0.85× | 2.38 |
| 0-1 goals | 41.3% | 42.0% | 24.7% | 1.70× | 2.38 |
| 4-6 goals | 13.4% | 16.9% | 23.6% | 0.72× | 5.93 |
| 7+ goals | 0.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 0.78× | 55.18 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga to score exactly 0 | 46.2% | 42.9% | 29.9% | 1.43× | 2.33 |
| Malaga to score exactly 1 | 35.7% | 35.9% | 38.1% | 0.94× | 2.79 |
| Malaga to score exactly 2 | 13.8% | 12.9% | 21.9% | 0.59× | 7.78 |
| Malaga to score 3+ | 4.4% | 4.6% | 10.3% | 0.45× | 21.73 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe to score exactly 1 | 36.1% | 35.6% | 38.4% | 0.93× | 2.81 |
| Getafe to score exactly 0 | 30.0% | 32.6% | 19.6% | 1.66× | 3.07 |
| Getafe to score exactly 2 | 21.7% | 23.3% | 22.6% | 1.03× | 4.29 |
| Getafe to score 3+ | 12.1% | 14.3% | 19.6% | 0.73× | 6.98 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 49.0% | 52.4% | 43.2% | 1.21× | 1.91 |
| Getafe leading at HT | 33.5% | 33.6% | 35.4% | 0.95× | 2.98 |
| Malaga leading at HT | 17.5% | 15.6% | 21.6% | 0.72× | 6.43 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe -1: 2 | 53.8% | 52.3% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Getafe -1: X | 25.7% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
| Getafe -1: 1 | 20.5% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.25 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga (0:1) | 53.8% | 51.4% | 53.4% | 0.96× | 1.94 |
| Draw (0:1) | 25.7% | 27.0% | 26.0% | 1.04× | 3.70 |
| Getafe (0:1) | 20.5% | 24.2% | 20.7% | 1.17× | 4.13 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga (0:2) | 79.5% | 79.4% | 79.3% | 1.00× | 1.26 |
| Draw (0:2) | 13.5% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 1.03× | 9.11 |
| Getafe (0:2) | 6.9% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 0.76× | 13.02 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga (0:3) | 93.1% | 92.7% | 89.9% | 1.03× | 1.08 |
| Draw (0:3) | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 0.82× | 17.29 |
| Getafe (0:3) | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 0.75× | 42.27 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga (0:4) | 98.1% | 98.1% | 96.8% | 1.01× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 0.50× | 82.75 |
| Getafe (0:4) | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.42× | 82.87 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe (1:0) | 76.3% | 78.5% | 71.4% | 1.10× | 1.27 |
| Draw (1:0) | 16.5% | 17.0% | 17.8% | 0.96× | 5.87 |
| Malaga (1:0) | 7.2% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 0.63× | 14.47 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe (2:0) | 92.8% | 94.0% | 89.1% | 1.06× | 1.06 |
| Draw (2:0) | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 0.89× | 15.64 |
| Malaga (2:0) | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 0.59× | 43.54 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 39.7% | 39.7% | 51.2% | 0.78× | 2.52 |
| Halves equal | 30.9% | 29.7% | 22.3% | 1.33× | 3.37 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 29.4% | 26.4% | 26.6% | 0.99× | 3.79 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe to concede | 53.8% | 53.2% | 70.1% | 0.76× | 1.88 |
| Getafe clean sheet | 46.2% | 46.8% | 29.9% | 1.56× | 2.14 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe clean sheet in 1st half | 72.0% | 68.0% | 63.3% | 1.07× | 1.47 |
| Getafe to concede in 1st half | 28.0% | 32.0% | 36.7% | 0.87× | 3.12 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe clean sheet in 2nd half | 64.2% | 59.6% | 47.9% | 1.24× | 1.68 |
| Getafe to concede in 2nd half | 35.8% | 40.4% | 52.1% | 0.78× | 2.48 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe over 2.5 corners | 80.2% | 81.0% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Getafe under 6.5 corners | 76.2% | 76.5% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Getafe over 3.5 corners | 65.3% | 66.7% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Getafe under 5.5 corners | 64.7% | 62.2% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Getafe under 4.5 corners | 50.4% | 52.6% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Getafe over 4.5 corners | 49.6% | 47.4% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Getafe over 5.5 corners | 35.3% | 37.8% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Getafe under 3.5 corners | 34.7% | 33.3% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Getafe over 6.5 corners | 23.8% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
| Getafe under 2.5 corners | 19.8% | 19.0% | — | — | 5.26 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe under 3.5 goals | 96.6% | 96.4% | 92.5% | 1.04× | 1.04 |
| Getafe under 2.5 goals | 87.9% | 87.3% | 80.4% | 1.09× | 1.15 |
| Getafe over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | 67.9% | 80.4% | 0.85× | 1.47 |
| Getafe under 1.5 goals | 66.2% | 67.9% | 57.9% | 1.17× | 1.47 |
| Getafe over 1.5 goals | 33.8% | 32.1% | 42.1% | 0.76× | 3.12 |
| Getafe under 0.5 goals | 30.0% | 32.1% | 19.6% | 1.64× | 3.12 |
| Getafe over 2.5 goals | 12.1% | 12.7% | 19.6% | 0.65× | 7.86 |
| Getafe over 3.5 goals | 3.4% | 3.7% | 7.5% | 0.48× | 27.40 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe under 1.5 in 1st half | 89.1% | 90.0% | 86.0% | 1.05× | 1.11 |
| Getafe under 0.5 in 1st half | 57.1% | 57.9% | 52.0% | 1.11× | 1.73 |
| Getafe over 0.5 in 1st half | 42.9% | 42.1% | 48.0% | 0.88× | 2.37 |
| Getafe over 1.5 in 1st half | 10.9% | 10.0% | 14.0% | 0.71× | 10.01 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe scores equally in both | 41.9% | 42.4% | 32.3% | 1.31× | 2.36 |
| Getafe scores more in 2nd half | 31.7% | 32.9% | 39.9% | 0.82× | 3.04 |
| Getafe scores more in 1st half | 26.4% | 28.0% | 27.9% | 1.00× | 3.57 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (home no bet) | 55.9% | 56.4% | 46.6% | 1.21× | 1.77 |
| Malaga (home no bet) | 44.1% | 43.6% | 53.4% | 0.82× | 2.29 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe even goals | 54.5% | 50.7% | 47.6% | 1.07× | 1.97 |
| Getafe odd goals | 45.5% | 49.3% | 52.4% | 0.94× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 41.1% | 41.4% | 32.1% | 1.29× | 2.42 |
| HT 1-0 | 23.0% | 24.1% | 22.6% | 1.07× | 4.15 |
| HT 0-1 | 13.5% | 10.8% | 15.9% | 0.68× | 9.25 |
| HT 1-1 | 7.6% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 0.70× | 14.10 |
| HT 2-0 | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 1.14× | 14.11 |
| HT 0-2 | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 0.66× | 42.83 |
| Any other HT score | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 0.50× | 42.82 |
| HT 2-1 | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 0.74× | 42.84 |
| HT 1-2 | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.47× | 42.90 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.3% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.91× | 42.97 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe at HT / Getafe at FT | 27.8% | 27.1% | 26.5% | 1.02× | 3.69 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 21.6% | 21.5% | 13.9% | 1.55× | 4.65 |
| Draw at HT / Getafe at FT | 16.9% | 16.7% | 17.8% | 0.94× | 5.97 |
| Malaga at HT / Malaga at FT | 12.1% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 0.96× | 7.89 |
| Draw at HT / Malaga at FT | 10.5% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 1.08× | 7.90 |
| Getafe at HT / Draw at FT | 4.6% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 0.66× | 29.07 |
| Malaga at HT / Draw at FT | 3.9% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 0.58× | 29.10 |
| Malaga at HT / Getafe at FT | 1.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.28× | 29.19 |
| Getafe at HT / Malaga at FT | 1.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 0.88× | 29.20 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe to score last | 52.5% | 51.9% | 55.2% | 0.94× | 1.93 |
| Malaga to score last | 33.7% | 32.8% | 39.9% | 0.82× | 3.05 |
| No goal scored | 13.9% | 9.8% | 5.0% | 1.97× | 10.17 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 86.1% | 90.4% | 95.0% | 0.95× | 1.11 |
| Getafe to lead by 1 at any time | 57.4% | 55.0% | 63.0% | 0.87× | 1.82 |
| Malaga to lead by 1 at any time | 36.9% | 34.7% | 47.3% | 0.73× | 2.89 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 34.4% | 29.7% | 41.8% | 0.71× | 3.37 |
| Getafe to lead by 2 at any time | 24.4% | 19.7% | 26.3% | 0.75× | 5.07 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 10.1% | 10.5% | 17.0% | 0.62× | 9.56 |
| Malaga to lead by 2 at any time | 10.1% | 10.5% | 15.9% | 0.66× | 9.56 |
| Getafe to lead by 3 at any time | 8.0% | 6.7% | 12.3% | 0.55× | 14.84 |
| Malaga to lead by 3 at any time | 2.1% | 1.6% | 4.8% | 0.33× | 63.21 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe most corners | 56.6% | 55.6% | — | — | 1.80 |
| Malaga most corners | 31.8% | 34.4% | — | — | 2.91 |
| Corners level | 11.6% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.60 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 84.6% | 83.4% | 89.2% | 0.94× | 1.20 |
| 1-4 goals | 81.1% | 83.4% | 81.1% | 1.03× | 1.20 |
| 1-3 goals | 72.3% | 72.4% | 69.3% | 1.04× | 1.38 |
| 2-6 goals | 58.3% | 59.1% | 73.1% | 0.81× | 1.69 |
| 2-5 goals | 57.2% | 59.1% | 69.5% | 0.85× | 1.69 |
| 1-2 goals | 54.5% | 53.1% | 45.3% | 1.17× | 1.88 |
| 2-4 goals | 53.7% | 53.1% | 61.4% | 0.87× | 1.88 |
| 2-3 goals | 44.9% | 43.6% | 49.6% | 0.88× | 2.30 |
| 3-6 goals | 31.2% | 35.2% | 47.7% | 0.74× | 2.84 |
| 3-5 goals | 30.1% | 35.2% | 44.0% | 0.80× | 2.84 |
| 3-4 goals | 26.6% | 30.3% | 36.0% | 0.84× | 3.30 |
| 4-6 goals | 13.4% | 14.8% | 23.6% | 0.63× | 6.74 |
| 4-5 goals | 12.3% | 14.8% | 20.0% | 0.74× | 6.75 |
| 5-6 goals | 4.6% | 2.6% | 11.8% | 0.22× | 39.15 |
| 7+ goals | 0.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.10× | 39.35 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe never behind | 49.3% | 56.6% | 52.7% | 1.07× | 1.77 |
| Malaga never behind | 28.7% | 30.2% | 37.0% | 0.82× | 3.31 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.0% | 50.9% | 53.8% | 0.95× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 51.0% | 49.1% | 46.2% | 1.06× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 58.4% | 57.5% | 53.9% | 1.07× | 1.74 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 41.6% | 42.5% | 46.1% | 0.92× | 2.35 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 55.7% | 58.4% | 49.8% | 1.17× | 1.71 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 44.3% | 41.6% | 50.2% | 0.83× | 2.40 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 98.4% | 95.4% | 94.0% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 95.0% | 92.3% | 86.0% | 1.07× | 1.08 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 86.1% | 87.6% | 95.0% | 0.92× | 1.14 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 86.2% | 87.6% | 74.2% | 1.18× | 1.14 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 68.3% | 66.4% | 50.1% | 1.32× | 1.51 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58.7% | 58.7% | 75.3% | 0.78× | 1.71 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 41.3% | 41.3% | 24.7% | 1.67× | 2.42 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.7% | 33.6% | 49.9% | 0.67× | 2.97 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 13.9% | 12.4% | 5.0% | 2.48× | 8.08 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.8% | 12.4% | 25.8% | 0.48× | 8.08 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 5.0% | 7.7% | 14.0% | 0.55× | 12.90 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 1.6% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 0.77× | 21.90 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 99.6% | 97.2% | 97.6% | 1.00× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 98.4% | 97.2% | 93.5% | 1.04× | 1.03 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 94.5% | 92.4% | 84.1% | 1.10× | 1.08 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 83.2% | 81.1% | 66.0% | 1.23× | 1.23 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 56.6% | 55.8% | 33.1% | 1.68× | 1.79 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 43.4% | 44.2% | 66.9% | 0.66× | 2.26 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 16.8% | 18.9% | 34.0% | 0.56× | 5.29 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 5.5% | 7.6% | 15.9% | 0.48× | 13.16 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 1.6% | 2.8% | 6.5% | 0.43× | 35.83 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 0.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.16× | 35.86 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 93.9% | 92.8% | 89.8% | 1.03× | 1.08 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 77.6% | 79.1% | 70.2% | 1.13× | 1.27 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 58.9% | 63.2% | 67.9% | 0.93× | 1.58 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 41.1% | 36.8% | 32.1% | 1.15× | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 22.4% | 20.9% | 29.8% | 0.70× | 4.78 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 6.1% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 0.71× | 13.85 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 90.3% | 88.8% | 79.5% | 1.12× | 1.13 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 70.4% | 77.5% | 53.5% | 1.45× | 1.29 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 66.2% | 67.6% | 81.8% | 0.83× | 1.48 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 33.8% | 32.4% | 18.2% | 1.78× | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 29.6% | 22.5% | 46.5% | 0.48× | 4.45 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 9.7% | 11.2% | 20.5% | 0.55× | 8.94 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga not to score in both halves | 90.0% | 85.8% | 81.2% | 1.06× | 1.17 |
| Getafe not to score in both halves | 79.7% | 78.3% | 73.8% | 1.06× | 1.28 |
| Getafe to score in both halves | 20.3% | 21.7% | 26.2% | 0.83× | 4.60 |
| Malaga to score in both halves | 10.0% | 14.2% | 18.8% | 0.76× | 7.05 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 37.6% | 39.9% | 55.5% | 0.72× | 2.51 |
| Only Getafe scores | 32.3% | 33.3% | 25.1% | 1.33× | 3.00 |
| Only Malaga scores | 16.2% | 16.0% | 14.7% | 1.09× | 6.24 |
| Neither team scores | 13.9% | 11.0% | 5.0% | 2.21× | 9.07 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 1 goals | 27.4% | 24.9% | 19.8% | 1.25× | 4.02 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 27.1% | 24.9% | 25.5% | 0.97× | 4.02 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 17.8% | 17.4% | 24.2% | 0.72× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 13.9% | 12.1% | 5.0% | 2.43× | 8.25 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 8.8% | 7.6% | 11.9% | 0.64× | 13.13 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 3.5% | 4.5% | 8.2% | 0.55× | 22.36 |
| 6 or more goals | 1.6% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 0.75× | 22.39 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No goals in 1st half | 41.1% | 41.4% | 32.1% | 1.29× | 2.42 |
| 1 goal in 1st half | 36.5% | 36.9% | 38.3% | 0.96× | 2.71 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 16.2% | 15.3% | 19.6% | 0.78× | 6.52 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 6.1% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 0.71× | 13.85 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 36.7% | 39.8% | 35.5% | 1.12× | 2.51 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 33.8% | 33.3% | 18.2% | 1.84× | 3.00 |
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 29.6% | 29.8% | 46.5% | 0.64× | 3.36 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga not to win both halves | 96.3% | 97.2% | 94.8% | 1.03× | 1.03 |
| Getafe not to win both halves | 88.4% | 88.1% | 88.2% | 1.00× | 1.14 |
| Getafe to win both halves | 11.6% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 1.01× | 8.38 |
| Malaga to win both halves | 3.7% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 0.53× | 36.28 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga to win neither half | 64.9% | 65.0% | 55.9% | 1.16× | 1.54 |
| Getafe to win either half | 56.4% | 59.4% | 62.7% | 0.95× | 1.68 |
| Getafe to win neither half | 43.6% | 40.6% | 37.3% | 1.09× | 2.47 |
| Malaga to win either half | 35.1% | 35.0% | 44.1% | 0.79× | 2.86 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga not to win to nil | 83.8% | 83.1% | 85.3% | 0.97× | 1.20 |
| Getafe not to win to nil | 67.7% | 69.6% | 74.9% | 0.93× | 1.44 |
| Getafe to win to nil | 32.3% | 30.4% | 25.1% | 1.21× | 3.29 |
| Malaga to win to nil | 16.2% | 16.9% | 14.7% | 1.15× | 5.92 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe by 1 | 25.7% | 27.9% | 26.0% | 1.07× | 3.59 |
| Draw | 30.1% | 27.6% | 24.9% | 1.11× | 3.62 |
| Malaga by 1 | 16.5% | 17.0% | 17.8% | 0.96× | 5.89 |
| Getafe by 2 | 13.5% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 1.10× | 8.49 |
| Getafe by 3+ | 6.9% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 0.71× | 13.88 |
| Malaga by 2 | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 1.00× | 13.88 |
| Malaga by 3+ | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 0.70× | 36.76 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Getafe 1.19 xGMalaga 0.66 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Getafe attacking right
Malaga attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Getafe |
Andrés García | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ramón Terrats |
| 7' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nemanja Gudelj |
| 11' |
 Malaga |
Eneko Jauregi | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Joaquín Muñoz |
| 12' |
Getafe |
Enes Ünal | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Andrés García |
| 13' |
Getafe |
Iván Azón | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Martín Satriano |
| 21' |
Malaga |
Juan Berrocal | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 29' |
Malaga |
Dani Lorenzo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Dotor |
| 29' |
Malaga |
Joaquín Muñoz | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | David Larrubia |
| 37' |
Getafe |
Enes Ünal | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 39' |
Getafe |
Andrés García | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Malaga |
José Salinas | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rafa Rodríguez |
| 42' |
Malaga |
Rafa Rodríguez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | David Larrubia |
| 44' |
Malaga |
David Larrubia | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rafita |
| 48' |
Getafe |
Johan Mojica | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Getafe |
Johan Mojica | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Getafe |
Ramón Terrats | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andrés García |
| 51' |
Getafe |
Ramón Terrats | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 53' |
Getafe |
Iván Azón | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Zaid Romero |
| 57' |
Getafe |
Francho Serrano | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Getafe |
Iván Azón | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ramón Terrats |
| 63' |
Getafe |
Enes Ünal | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ramón Terrats |
| 63' |
Getafe |
Johan Mojica | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Iván Azón |
| 66' |
Malaga |
Adrián Niño | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dani Lorenzo |
| 70' |
Getafe |
Andrés García | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Getafe |
Iván Azón | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Martín Satriano |
| 90' |
Malaga |
Carlos Dotor | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ramón Enríquez |
| 90' |
Malaga |
Ángel Recio | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Martínez |
| 96' |
Malaga |
Juan Cruz | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 97' |
Getafe |
Davinchi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ramón Terrats |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iván Azón MR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.06 | 0.62 |
| Enes Ünal FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Johan Mojica DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 0.26 |
| Martín Satriano ML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.47 | 0.59 |
| Andrés García DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.50 |
| Ramón Terrats MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.05 | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| Francho Serrano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nemanja Gudelj MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| Zaid Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Djené Dakonam DC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Orel Mangala Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Davinchi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Saba Sazonov Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Malaga
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Berrocal DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| David Larrubia MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.32 |
| Carlos Dotor MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.28 |
| Ángel Recio DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| José Salinas DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Alfonso Herrero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Rafita DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| Rafa Rodríguez DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Joaquín Muñoz ML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| Dani Lorenzo MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.34 |
| Eneko Jauregi FW | 52 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrián Niño Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Pablo Martínez Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Chupe Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ramón Enríquez Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Juan Cruz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |