Getafe v Mallorca — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 13 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 9
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
5 – 6
xG per shot
0.30 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.34 – 0.27
Goals − xG
+1.18 – +0.59
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Getafe win
40.6%
Draw
29.4%
Mallorca win
30.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLDWLWLWLD last 10
scored 6
from 9.3 xG
conceded 11
from 12.1 xG
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLWDLLW last 10
scored 14
from 14.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.17–0.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.28–0.98 | 1-0 13% | 39% | 45% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Getafe 1.82 xGMallorca 0.41 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Getafe attacking right
Mallorca attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Mallorca |
Luis Orejuela | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jan Virgili |
| 3' |
Mallorca |
Zito | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jan Virgili |
| 10' |
 Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nyom |
| 13' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.91 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Nyom |
| 15' |
Mallorca |
Omar Mascarell | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jan Virgili |
| 28' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Jan Virgili |
| 40' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 62' |
Getafe |
Zaid Romero | 0.30 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Luis Milla |
| 64' |
Mallorca |
Omar Mascarell | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Pablo Torre |
| 68' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Davinchi |
| 71' |
Mallorca |
Takuma Asano | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antonio Sánchez |
| 80' |
Mallorca |
Pablo Torre | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Mallorca |
Omar Mascarell | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Getafe |
Sebastián Boselli | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Luis Milla |
| 95' |
Mallorca |
Martin Valjent | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martín Satriano FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.45 | 0.00 | 1.45 |
| Zaid Romero DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Mauro Arambarri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mario Martín FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luis Milla MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.10 |
| Juan Iglesias DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Domingos Duarte DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Damián Cáceres MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Djené Dakonam DC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nyom DR | 68 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| Davinchi Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Sebastián Boselli Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Mallorca
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Mascarell DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Vedat Muriqi FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Luis Orejuela DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Martin Valjent DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Leo Román GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| David López DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Pablo Maffeo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Manuel Morlanes DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jan Virgili AML | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| Sergi Darder AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zito AMR | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pablo Torre Sub | 40 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| Takuma Asano Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Antonio Sánchez Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Abdón Prats Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |