Getafe v Osasuna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 23 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 11
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
3 – 7
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.22 – 0.34
Goals − xG
+0.74 – -0.80
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Getafe win
42.6%
Draw
30.4%
Osasuna win
26.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLDWLWLWLD last 10
scored 6
from 9.3 xG
conceded 11
from 12.1 xG
Osasuna are finishing below their chances — 3.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLDWWL last 10
scored 12
from 15.1 xG
conceded 17
from 12.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.15–0.85 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.13–1.05 | 1-1 13% | 37% | 44% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Getafe 0.26 xGOsasuna 0.80 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Getafe attacking right
Osasuna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Osasuna |
Lucas Torró | 0.20 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Aimar Oroz |
| 6' |
Osasuna |
Lucas Torró | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Javi Galán |
| 10' |
Osasuna |
Raul García | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ante Budimir |
| 17' |
Osasuna |
Lucas Torró | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Jon Moncayola |
| 24' |
 Getafe |
Luis Milla | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 24' |
Getafe |
Luis Vázquez | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mauro Arambarri |
| 37' |
Osasuna |
Lucas Torró | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aimar Oroz |
| 47' |
Getafe |
Zaid Romero | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Vázquez |
| 48' |
Osasuna |
Javi Galán | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Getafe |
Luis Vázquez | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Getafe |
Luis Milla | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Luis Vázquez |
| 64' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Osasuna |
Valentin Rosier | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Raul García |
| 77' |
Getafe |
Domingos Duarte | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Luis Milla |
| 85' |
Osasuna |
Asier Osambela | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Javi Galán |
| 87' |
Osasuna |
Raul García | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 95' |
Osasuna |
Raul García | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Valentin Rosier |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Vázquez FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Luis Milla MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| Domingos Duarte DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zaid Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nyom DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mauro Arambarri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Mario Martín MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdelkabir Abqar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Iglesias DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrián Liso FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Damián Cáceres Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Davinchi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Osasuna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul García FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.02 | 0.41 |
| Valentin Rosier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.45 |
| Javi Galán DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Ante Budimir FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| Sergio Herrera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alejandro Catena DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enzo Boyomo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Aimar Oroz MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.02 |
| Jon Moncayola MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Torró MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jorge Herrando DC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kike Barja Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Moi Gómez Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Asier Osambela Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Raul Moro Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rubén García Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |