Getafe v Real Betis — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 February 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 13
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
5 – 10
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 1.02
Goals − xG
+0.14 – -0.35
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Getafe win
39.6%
Draw
31.1%
Real Betis win
29.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLDWLWLWLD last 10
scored 6
from 9.3 xG
conceded 11
from 12.1 xG
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDWLWWWLW last 10
scored 16
from 15.0 xG
conceded 13
from 18.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.09–0.89 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Getafe 0.86 xGReal Betis 2.35 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Getafe attacking right
Real Betis attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17' |
 Real Betis |
Isco | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Antony |
| 23' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 24' |
Real Betis |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sergi Altimira |
| 26' |
Real Betis |
Diego Llorente | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Isco |
| 27' |
 Getafe |
Juan Bernat | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 31' |
Real Betis |
Diego Llorente | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Isco |
| 33' |
Getafe |
Borja Mayoral | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Juan Bernat |
| 34' |
Getafe |
Juanmi | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mauro Arambarri |
| 38' |
Real Betis |
Marc Bartra | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Isco |
| 44' |
Real Betis |
Johnny Cardoso | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 57' |
Real Betis |
Ricardo Rodríguez | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Isco |
| 59' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Bernat |
| 61' |
Getafe |
Juanmi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ramón Terrats |
| 62' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 63' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Antony |
| 68' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Johnny Cardoso |
| 70' |
Real Betis |
Sergi Altimira | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 76' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 81' |
Getafe |
Borja Mayoral | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 88' |
Getafe |
Carles Pérez | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Getafe |
Carles Pérez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borja Mayoral FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Mauro Arambarri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Juan Iglesias MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Domingos Duarte DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Djené Dakonam DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Diego Rico DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omar Alderete DC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Juan Bernat ML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Juanmi FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ramón Terrats MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| Carles Pérez Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alvaro Rodríguez Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Coba da Costa Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nyom Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isco AMC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1.28 | 0.28 | 1.20 |
| Antony AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.70 | 1.09 |
| Diego Llorente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Johnny Cardoso DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.47 |
| Sergi Altimira DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 1.18 |
| Marc Bartra DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Adrián GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.40 | 0.59 |
| Youssouf Sabaly DR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Jesús Rodriguez AML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.52 |
| Ezequiel Ávila Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aitor Ruibal Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vitor Roque Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Natan Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |