Getafe v Real Betis — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 March 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 14
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
6 – 9
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.10 – 0.35
Goals − xG
+1.16 – -1.25
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Getafe win
26.4%
Draw
29.9%
Real Betis win
43.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Getafe are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLWLDDLWLD last 10
scored 6
from 7.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.8 xG
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLWWWDWL last 10
scored 18
from 19.0 xG
conceded 15
from 19.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.97–1.32 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.96–1.20 | 0-1 14% | 37% | 43% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Getafe 0.84 xGReal Betis 1.25 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Getafe attacking right
Real Betis attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Real Betis |
Álvaro Fidalgo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 14' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ezequiel Ávila |
| 18' |
Real Betis |
Nelson Deossa | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 22' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ezequiel Ávila |
| 26' |
 Getafe |
Domingos Duarte | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Juan Iglesias |
| 27' |
Getafe |
Domingos Duarte | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Juan Iglesias |
| 27' |
Getafe |
Kiko Femenía | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 34' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Real Betis |
Marc Bartra | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Ezequiel Ávila |
| 45' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Abdelkabir Abqar |
| 48' |
Getafe |
Luis Vázquez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Getafe |
Zaid Romero | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Getafe |
Zaid Romero | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luis Milla |
| 54' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Júnior Firpo |
| 60' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luis Milla |
| 71' |
Real Betis |
Rodrigo Riquelme | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Real Betis |
Marc Bartra | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sergi Altimira |
| 76' |
Real Betis |
Rodrigo Riquelme | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 85' |
Real Betis |
Diego Llorente | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 88' |
Real Betis |
Cédric Bakambu | 0.68 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Antony |
| 89' |
Real Betis |
Ezequiel Ávila | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Valentín Gómez |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaid Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Martín Satriano ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Mauro Arambarri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luis Vázquez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Djené Dakonam DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luis Milla MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| Juan Iglesias DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Kiko Femenía MR | 84 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Domingos Duarte DC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Abdelkabir Abqar DC | 53 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Mario Martín Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastián Boselli Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nyom Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diego Rico Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Bartra DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ezequiel Ávila FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Álvaro Vallés GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Valentín Gómez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.78 |
| Sergi Altimira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| Ángel Ortiz DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Júnior Firpo DL | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Nelson Deossa MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Álvaro Fidalgo MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli FWL | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Antony Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| Pablo Fornals Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.75 |
| Diego Llorente Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Cédric Bakambu Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 0.68 |