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Getafe v Real Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 23 April 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG Prediction generated

Getafe
0–1
2.54 – 1.75 xG
Real Madrid
Shots
20 – 14
On target
6 – 6
Shots in box
15 – 10
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.24 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-3.12 – -0.76

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Getafe win
29.3%
Draw
27.0%
Real Madrid win
43.7%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Getafe are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LLDWLWLWLD last 10 scored 6 from 9.3 xG conceded 11 from 12.1 xG

Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWLWWWWWWL last 10 scored 20 from 21.0 xG conceded 8 from 10.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend-oos 1.04–1.34 0% 0% 0% Away ✓
dc-xg-oos 1.03–1.81 1-1 11% 54% 54% Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.91.72.63.50'15'30'45'60'75'90'Arda Güler 20' — goal
Getafe 3.12 xGReal Madrid 1.76 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Luis Milla 1' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Ramón Terrats 1' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Federico Valverde 5' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Ramón Terrats 11' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Arda Güler 12' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Juan Berrocal 14' — Blocked Shot (0.17 xG, From Corner)Borja Mayoral 15' — Missed Shot (0.25 xG, Open Play)Fran García 17' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Fran García 17' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Juan Iglesias 19' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Arda Güler 20' — Goal (0.02 xG, Open Play)Brahim Diaz 20' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Endrick 31' — Blocked Shot (0.44 xG, Open Play)Federico Valverde 34' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Brahim Diaz 37' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Vinícius Júnior 37' — Missed Shot (0.15 xG, Open Play)Mauro Arambarri 46' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Alvaro Rodríguez 55' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Endrick 55' — Missed Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)Alvaro Rodríguez 57' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Luis Milla 58' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Brahim Diaz 60' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Coba da Costa 61' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Eduardo Camavinga 62' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Vinícius Júnior 66' — Saved Shot (0.25 xG, Open Play)Peter 69' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Mauro Arambarri 71' — Missed Shot (0.53 xG, Open Play)Mauro Arambarri 83' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Juanmi 90' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Juanmi 90' — Saved Shot (0.82 xG, Open Play)Peter 90' — Saved Shot (0.70 xG, Open Play)Omar Alderete 92' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Alvaro Rodríguez 96' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Coba da Costa 96' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)
Getafe attacking right Real Madrid attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Getafe Luis Milla 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ramón Terrats
1' Getafe Ramón Terrats 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
5' Real Madrid Federico Valverde 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Arda Güler
11' Getafe Ramón Terrats 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Luis Milla
12' Real Madrid Arda Güler 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Vinícius Júnior
14' Getafe Juan Berrocal 0.17 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Luis Milla
15' Getafe Borja Mayoral 0.25 Open Play — Missed Shot Juan Iglesias
17' Real Madrid Fran García 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Vinícius Júnior
17' Real Madrid Fran García 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
19' Getafe Juan Iglesias 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Luis Milla
20' Real Madrid Arda Güler 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Goal —
20' Real Madrid Brahim Diaz 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
31' Real Madrid Endrick 0.44 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Vinícius Júnior
34' Real Madrid Federico Valverde 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Lucas Vázquez
37' Real Madrid Brahim Diaz 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Arda Güler
37' Real Madrid Vinícius Júnior 0.15 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
46' Getafe Mauro Arambarri 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Luis Milla
55' Getafe Alvaro Rodríguez 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
55' Real Madrid Endrick 0.33 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Eduardo Camavinga
57' Getafe Alvaro Rodríguez 0.05 Open Play — Missed Shot Coba da Costa
58' Getafe Luis Milla 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Ramón Terrats
60' Real Madrid Brahim Diaz 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Arda Güler
61' Getafe Coba da Costa 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Borja Mayoral
62' Real Madrid Eduardo Camavinga 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Raúl
66' Real Madrid Vinícius Júnior 0.25 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Brahim Diaz
69' Getafe Peter 0.04 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot —
71' Getafe Mauro Arambarri 0.53 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Borja Mayoral
83' Getafe Mauro Arambarri 0.01 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot —
90' Getafe Juanmi 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Mauro Arambarri
90' Getafe Juanmi 0.82 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
90' Getafe Peter 0.70 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Coba da Costa
92' Getafe Omar Alderete 0.01 From Corner — Saved Shot Luis Milla
96' Getafe Alvaro Rodríguez 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Luis Milla
96' Getafe Coba da Costa 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —

Players

Getafe

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mauro Arambarri MC 90 0 0 3 1 0.56 0.07 0.68
Luis Milla MC 90 0 0 2 6 0.11 0.35 0.58
Omar Alderete DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.23
David Soria GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Domingos Duarte DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.99
Juan Bernat ML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.29
Borja Mayoral FW 84 0 0 1 2 0.25 0.54 0.85
Djené Dakonam DR 84 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.41
Ramón Terrats MR 70 0 0 2 2 0.02 0.11 0.42
Juan Berrocal DC 51 0 0 1 0 0.17 0.00 0.06
Juan Iglesias DL 51 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.25 0.29
Alvaro Rodríguez Sub 39 0 0 3 0 0.22 0.00 0.75
Coba da Costa Sub 39 0 0 2 2 0.12 0.75 1.08
Peter Sub 20 0 0 2 0 0.74 0.00 0.70
Juanmi Sub 6 0 0 2 0 0.89 0.00 1.58
Ismael Bekhoucha Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10

Real Madrid

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Brahim Diaz MR 90 0 0 3 1 0.18 0.25 1.30
Fran García DL 90 0 0 2 0 0.15 0.00 0.23
Federico Valverde ML 90 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.47
Aurelien Tchouameni MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.62
Thibaut Courtois GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.47
Raúl DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.13 0.71
Lucas Vázquez DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.95
Arda Güler MC 79 1 0 2 3 0.05 0.12 0.65
Vinícius Júnior FW 74 0 0 2 3 0.40 0.53 1.06
Endrick FW 65 0 0 2 0 0.77 0.00 0.77
David Alaba DC 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.62
Eduardo Camavinga Sub 43 0 0 1 1 0.13 0.33 0.50
Jude Bellingham Sub 25 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Rodrygo Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dani Ceballos Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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