Getafe v Real Sociedad — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 9 January 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 12
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
3 – 5
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.12 – 0.41
Goals − xG
+0.76 – +0.74
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Getafe win
40.6%
Draw
28.3%
Real Sociedad win
31.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 2.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLDWLWLWL last 10
scored 6
from 8.1 xG
conceded 10
from 12.5 xG
Real Sociedad have scored 13 from 13.9 expected and conceded 18 from 19.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLDDLDLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 13.9 xG
conceded 18
from 19.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.19–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.07–0.90 | 1-0 15% | 32% | 39% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Getafe 0.24 xGReal Sociedad 1.26 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Getafe attacking right
Real Sociedad attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adrián Liso |
| 13' |
Getafe |
Alejandro Mestanza | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kiko Femenía |
| 18' |
 Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Real Sociedad |
Brais Méndez | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 46' |
Getafe |
Juan Iglesias | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Milla |
| 51' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 52' |
Real Sociedad |
Beñat Turrientes | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 58' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 65' |
Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 69' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alex Sancris |
| 77' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 79' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 80' |
Getafe |
Ismael Bekhoucha | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alex Sancris |
| 89' |
Getafe |
Juanmi | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Mauro Arambarri |
| 91' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ander Barrenetxea |
| 95' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Aramburu | 0.38 | From Corner | — | Goal | Takefusa Kubo |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauro Arambarri MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Luis Milla MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Kiko Femenía DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Diego Rico DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nyom DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Iglesias DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Javi Muñoz MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mario Martín FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alejandro Mestanza MR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Adrián Liso ML | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Juanmi Sub | 31 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Sancris Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| Jorge Montes Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ismael Bekhoucha Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joselu Pérez Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Takefusa Kubo MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.57 | 0.19 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Duje Caleta-Car DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Soler MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.26 |
| Sergio Gómez DL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| Beñat Turrientes MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Brais Méndez FW | 60 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Gonçalo Guedes ML | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ander Barrenetxea Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| Luka Sucic Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Jon Gorrotxategi Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Marín Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aihen Muñoz Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |