Girona v Atletico Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 21 December 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 14
On target
2 – 6
Shots in box
5 – 9
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.76 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.16 – +1.74
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Girona win
14.1%
Draw
19.1%
Atletico Madrid win
66.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Atletico Madrid have scored 16 from 17.5 expected and conceded 15 from 16.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWLWWLWDWL last 10
scored 16
from 17.5 xG
conceded 15
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.83–2.09 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.94–2.19 | 0-2 11% | 61% | 54% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Girona 1.16 xGAtletico Madrid 1.26 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Girona attacking right
Atletico Madrid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Atletico Madrid |
Pablo Barrios Rivas | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 6' |
 Girona |
Alejandro Francés | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
Atletico Madrid |
Nicolás González | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Julián Álvarez |
| 12' |
Atletico Madrid |
Koke | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 16' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Matteo Ruggeri |
| 18' |
Girona |
Vladyslav Vanat | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alejandro Francés |
| 22' |
Girona |
Axel Witsel | 0.57 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 22' |
Girona |
Vitor Reis | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Atletico Madrid |
Conor Gallagher | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alexander Sørloth |
| 37' |
Atletico Madrid |
Conor Gallagher | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Julián Álvarez |
| 41' |
Atletico Madrid |
Conor Gallagher | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Julián Álvarez |
| 47' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Matteo Ruggeri |
| 47' |
Atletico Madrid |
Giuliano Simeone | 0.22 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcos Llorente |
| 49' |
Girona |
Vladyslav Vanat | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Daley Blind |
| 55' |
Atletico Madrid |
Koke | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Julián Álvarez |
| 59' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matteo Ruggeri |
| 63' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Koke |
| 72' |
Girona |
Álex Moreno | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Daley Blind |
| 73' |
Girona |
Álex Moreno | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vitor Reis |
| 79' |
Girona |
Daley Blind | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yáser Asprilla |
| 83' |
Girona |
Hugo Rincón | 0.12 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yáser Asprilla |
| 90' |
Atletico Madrid |
Pablo Barrios Rivas | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Thiago Almada |
| 91' |
Atletico Madrid |
Antoine Griezmann | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Giacomo Raspadori |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Axel Witsel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Álex Moreno DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Vitor Reis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Vladyslav Vanat FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Daley Blind DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Viktor Tsygankov MR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Iván Martín MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Alejandro Francés DR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Arnau Martinez MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Joel Roca ML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Yáser Asprilla Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.01 |
| Hugo Rincón Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bryan Gil Salvatierra Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jhon Solis Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thomas Lemar Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giuliano Simeone MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 1.02 |
| Pablo Barrios Rivas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Koke MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.92 |
| David Hancko DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Marc Pubill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Jan Oblak GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Matteo Ruggeri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.44 |
| Alexander Sørloth FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.09 | 0.45 |
| Marcos Llorente DR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.70 |
| Julián Álvarez FW | 80 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| Conor Gallagher Sub | 53 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Nicolás González ML | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Robin Le Normand Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thiago Almada Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Antoine Griezmann Sub | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Giacomo Raspadori Sub | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.29 |