Girona v Celta Vigo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 March 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 6
On target
7 – 5
Shots in box
11 – 5
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.68 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-0.60 – +1.30
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Girona win
31.5%
Draw
27.5%
Celta Vigo win
41.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWLDWDLLD last 10
scored 10
from 10.1 xG
conceded 11
from 18.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.25–1.46 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.41–1.51 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 59% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Girona 1.60 xGCelta Vigo 0.70 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Girona attacking right
Celta Vigo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23' |
 Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Daley Blind |
| 28' |
Girona |
Vladyslav Vanat | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Arnau Martinez |
| 30' |
 Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 30' |
Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sergio Carreira |
| 34' |
Girona |
Axel Witsel | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Thomas Lemar |
| 34' |
Girona |
Vladyslav Vanat | 0.61 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Axel Witsel |
| 38' |
Celta Vigo |
Sergio Carreira | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Álvarez |
| 44' |
Celta Vigo |
Fernando López | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Álvarez |
| 51' |
Girona |
Arnau Martinez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Axel Witsel |
| 57' |
Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Óscar Mingueza |
| 58' |
Girona |
Hugo Rincón | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
Girona |
Vladyslav Vanat | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Gil Salvatierra |
| 60' |
Girona |
Daley Blind | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 62' |
Celta Vigo |
Óscar Mingueza | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 69' |
Girona |
Vitor Reis | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 75' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arnau Martinez |
| 78' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arnau Martinez |
| 79' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 79' |
Girona |
Claudio Echeverri | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Azz-Eddine Ounahi |
| 90' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fran Beltrán |
| 90' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Girona |
Vitor Reis | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Azz-Eddine Ounahi |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Tsygankov AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 0.28 |
| Vitor Reis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Arnau Martinez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| Daley Blind DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.32 |
| Fran Beltrán DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.48 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Rincón DR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Vladyslav Vanat FW | 75 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.83 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Axel Witsel DMC | 75 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.64 | 0.13 |
| Bryan Gil Salvatierra AML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.24 |
| Thomas Lemar AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.36 |
| Azz-Eddine Ounahi Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.16 | 0.39 |
| Iván Martín Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Claudio Echeverri Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Abel Ruiz Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joel Roca Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
Celta Vigo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Carreira DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.13 | 0.47 |
| Javier Rodríguez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Miguel Román MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Ilaix Moriba MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Joseph Aidoo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Óscar Mingueza DMR | 87 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.34 |
| Carlos Domínguez DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Ferrán Jutglà FW | 75 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Fernando López FWR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Hugo Álvarez FWL | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.51 |
| Williot Swedberg Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jones El Abdellaoui Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrés Antañón Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Javier Rueda Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manuel Fernández Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |