Girona v Elche — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 23 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 3
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
5 – 3
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.43 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+0.31 – +0.50
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Girona win
45.8%
Draw
26.3%
Elche win
27.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Elche are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWLDLWDDLL last 10
scored 13
from 13.4 xG
conceded 19
from 15.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.45–1.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.05–1.22 | 2-1 10% | 63% | 61% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Girona 0.69 xGElche 0.50 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Girona attacking right
Elche attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38' |
 Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | Pedro Bigas |
| 43' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
 Girona |
Bryan Gil Salvatierra | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 47' |
Girona |
Arnau Martinez | 0.37 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 47' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Girona |
Joel Roca | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 61' |
Elche |
German Valera | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marc Aguado |
| 73' |
Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iván Martín |
| 79' |
Girona |
Thomas Lemar | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 89' |
Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Iván Martín |
| 93' |
Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Azz-Eddine Ounahi |
| 95' |
Girona |
Claudio Echeverri | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Azz-Eddine Ounahi |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azz-Eddine Ounahi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| Álex Moreno DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Vitor Reis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Viktor Tsygankov FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Iván Martín MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| David López DC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Joel Roca ML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Arnau Martinez DR | 62 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Bryan Gil Salvatierra MR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Axel Witsel DMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Cristhian Stuani Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Fran Beltrán Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Hugo Rincón Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Claudio Echeverri Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Thomas Lemar Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| German Valera ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Marc Aguado DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| Matías Dituro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Affengruber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Bigas DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Victor Chust DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tete Morente MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aleix Febas MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alvaro Rodríguez FW | 79 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Gonzalo Villar MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Buba Sangaré DR | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| John Donald Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| André Silva Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrià Pedrosa Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hector Fort Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leo Petrot Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |