Girona v Getafe — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 26 January 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 8
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
7 – 7
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.20 – 0.55
Goals − xG
-0.02 – -0.12
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Girona win
45.4%
Draw
29.1%
Getafe win
25.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLDWLWLWLD last 10
scored 6
from 9.3 xG
conceded 11
from 12.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.33–0.92 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.20–0.90 | 1-0 15% | 35% | 42% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Girona 1.02 xGGetafe 1.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Girona attacking right
Getafe attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Getafe |
Juan Iglesias | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mauro Arambarri |
| 1' |
Getafe |
Mario Martín | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Vázquez |
| 13' |
 Girona |
Fran Beltrán | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vladyslav Vanat |
| 20' |
Girona |
Vitor Reis | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Bryan Gil Salvatierra |
| 24' |
Girona |
Thomas Lemar | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Iván Martín |
| 41' |
Getafe |
Zaid Romero | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Luis Milla |
| 41' |
Getafe |
Zaid Romero | 0.14 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Girona |
Álex Moreno | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Iván Martín |
| 56' |
Getafe |
Luis Vázquez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martín Satriano |
| 58' |
Getafe |
Luis Vázquez | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Juan Iglesias |
| 61' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Milla |
| 66' |
Girona |
Álex Moreno | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Fran Beltrán |
| 70' |
Girona |
Iván Martín | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Álex Moreno |
| 74' |
Girona |
Vladyslav Vanat | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Joel Roca |
| 81' |
Girona |
Alejandro Francés | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Joel Roca |
| 81' |
Girona |
Joel Roca | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Girona |
Claudio Echeverri | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Girona |
Vitor Reis | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Daley Blind |
| 93' |
Girona |
Vitor Reis | 0.41 | Open Play | — | Goal | Álex Moreno |
| 96' |
Getafe |
Sebastián Boselli | 0.28 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Milla |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaid Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mario Martín MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Martín Satriano FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.55 |
| Juan Iglesias DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luis Milla MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| Kiko Femenía DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Domingos Duarte DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djené Dakonam DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Mauro Arambarri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.42 |
| Luis Vázquez FW | 86 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.10 | 0.55 |
| Sebastián Boselli Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Reis DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Álex Moreno DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.49 | 0.75 |
| Vladyslav Vanat FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Fran Beltrán DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.58 |
| Viktor Tsygankov AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Daley Blind DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.56 |
| Marc-André ter Stegen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iván Martín DMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| Hugo Rincón DR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Bryan Gil Salvatierra AML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Thomas Lemar AMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Claudio Echeverri Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Joel Roca Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Alejandro Francés Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Arango Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |