Girona v Mallorca — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 5 May 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 9
On target
6 – 1
Shots in box
8 – 5
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-0.82 – -0.50
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Girona win
40.2%
Draw
26.9%
Mallorca win
32.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLWDLLW last 10
scored 14
from 14.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.30–1.15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.19–1.15 | 1-1 13% | 41% | 48% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Girona 1.82 xGMallorca 0.50 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Girona attacking right
Mallorca attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Mallorca |
Sergi Darder | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Samú Costa |
| 9' |
 Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 9' |
Girona |
Iván Martín | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Daley Blind |
| 23' |
Girona |
Portu | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Mallorca |
Sergi Darder | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Samú Costa |
| 30' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ladislav Krejcí |
| 38' |
Girona |
Portu | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 43' |
Girona |
Yangel Herrera | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Portu |
| 48' |
Girona |
Yangel Herrera | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
Girona |
Ladislav Krejcí | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 49' |
Girona |
Yangel Herrera | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Cristhian Stuani |
| 55' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arnau Martinez |
| 56' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ladislav Krejcí |
| 63' |
Mallorca |
Cyle Larin | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Dani Rodríguez |
| 66' |
Girona |
Portu | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 68' |
Mallorca |
Johan Mojica | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Girona |
Daley Blind | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Portu |
| 79' |
Mallorca |
Marc Domenech | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 79' |
Mallorca |
Takuma Asano | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Mallorca |
Raíllo | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Martin Valjent |
| 88' |
Mallorca |
Mateu Morey | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Domenech |
| 89' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Raíllo |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yangel Herrera MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Viktor Tsygankov FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| Daley Blind DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.33 |
| Ladislav Krejcí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.30 |
| Arnau Martinez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.48 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Arthur MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| David López DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Cristhian Stuani FW | 88 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.10 | 0.52 |
| Portu FWL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.90 | 0.12 | 1.18 |
| Iván Martín MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Oriol Romeu Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yáser Asprilla Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bojan Miovski Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Mallorca
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samú Costa MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| Johan Mojica DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| Raíllo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.29 |
| Martin Valjent DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Dominik Greif GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pablo Maffeo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Sergi Darder MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Cyle Larin FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Dani Rodríguez ML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Copete DC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Antonio Sánchez MR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Takuma Asano Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Omar Mascarell Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Marc Domenech Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Vedat Muriqi Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mateu Morey Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.17 |