Girona v Mallorca — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 1 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 8
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 6
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-1.78 – -0.31
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Girona win
46.9%
Draw
26.6%
Mallorca win
26.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLWDLLW last 10
scored 14
from 14.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.43–1.01 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.78–1.16 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 57% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Girona 1.78 xGMallorca 1.31 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Girona attacking right
Mallorca attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joel Roca |
| 16' |
 Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Torre |
| 19' |
Girona |
Claudio Echeverri | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Azz-Eddine Ounahi |
| 23' |
Mallorca |
Sergi Darder | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vedat Muriqi |
| 26' |
Mallorca |
Justin-Noel Kalumba | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Mallorca |
Pablo Torre | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 35' |
Girona |
Joel Roca | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Azz-Eddine Ounahi |
| 42' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.58 | Open Play | — | Goal | Johan Mojica |
| 46' |
Girona |
Arnau Martinez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joel Roca |
| 48' |
Mallorca |
Martin Valjent | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Omar Mascarell |
| 52' |
Girona |
Joel Roca | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arnau Martinez |
| 55' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 58' |
Girona |
Vitor Reis | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 72' |
Girona |
Axel Witsel | 0.16 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Arnau Martinez |
| 74' |
Girona |
Alejandro Francés | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thomas Lemar |
| 82' |
Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Azz-Eddine Ounahi |
| 83' |
Girona |
Bryan Gil Salvatierra | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 89' |
Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Rincón |
| 89' |
Mallorca |
Zito | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vedat Muriqi |
| 90' |
Girona |
Alejandro Francés | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Axel Witsel DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Viktor Tsygankov AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.67 |
| Vitor Reis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Alejandro Francés DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Azz-Eddine Ounahi AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.74 | 1.04 |
| Arnau Martinez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Daley Blind DL | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Fran Beltrán DMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Claudio Echeverri FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Joel Roca AML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 0.35 |
| Cristhian Stuani Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Bryan Gil Salvatierra Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Thomas Lemar Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Rincón Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.34 |
Mallorca
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samú Costa MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Vedat Muriqi FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.42 | 0.57 |
| Martin Valjent DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Leo Román GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Pablo Maffeo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johan Mojica DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| Omar Mascarell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Sergi Darder MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Manuel Morlanes MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Pablo Torre AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Justin-Noel Kalumba FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jan Virgili Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zito Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Antonio Sánchez Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Javi Llabrés Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David López Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |