Girona v RC Celta Fortuna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 25 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627
La Liga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 9.8%
- 2-1 9.6%
- 1-0 8.1%
- 2-0 7.5%
- 1-2 6.4%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 62.0% | Under 2.5 | 38.0% |
| BTTS yes | 61.4% | BTTS no | 38.6% |
| Girona 1+ | 85.3% | Girona 2+ | 57.2% |
| RC Celta Fortuna 1+ | 72.2% | RC Celta Fortuna 2+ | 36.6% |
Expected goals 1.92 – 1.28. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Girona.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- RC Celta Fortuna have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Girona have an estimated 52.5% win probability, against 25.7% for RC Celta Fortuna and 21.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.92 for Girona and 1.28 for RC Celta Fortuna.
Why Girona
Nothing in the data singles out Girona.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 21.8%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.
Why RC Celta Fortuna can win
RC Celta Fortuna carry the stronger rating, 1501 Elo against 1468.
Key players
Girona's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Viktor Tsygankov (0.37), Azz-Eddine Ounahi (0.32), Bryan Gil Salvatierra (0.18).
Availability
No lineup on record for RC Celta Fortuna, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Girona: 55% possession, 17.6 shots a match, 8.2 faced, 0.27 xG a match from set pieces. RC Celta Fortuna: 42% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 15.3 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Girona's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Girona are the model's most likely outcome at 52.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.8%. Confidence 50/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.92–1.28 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 2.20–1.50 | 2-1 9% | 72% | 69% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.