Girona v Real Oviedo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 25 October 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 10
On target
6 – 5
Shots in box
4 – 8
xG per shot
0.28 – 0.24
Set-piece xG
1.49 – 1.22
Goals − xG
+0.76 – +0.56
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Girona win
34.2%
Draw
28.4%
Real Oviedo win
37.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Real Oviedo are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLLDLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.3 xG
conceded 16
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.10–1.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.25–1.01 | 1-1 13% | 39% | 45% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Girona 2.24 xGReal Oviedo 2.44 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Girona attacking right
Real Oviedo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Girona |
Joel Roca | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Álex Moreno |
| 12' |
 Real Oviedo |
Salomón Rondón | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Javier López |
| 27' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Santiago Colombatto |
| 27' |
Real Oviedo |
Salomón Rondón | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilyas Chaira |
| 28' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Girona |
Axel Witsel | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 33' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Javier López |
| 37' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 40' |
Girona |
Bryan Gil Salvatierra | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Axel Witsel |
| 44' |
Real Oviedo |
Salomón Rondón | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Santiago Colombatto |
| 57' |
Real Oviedo |
Salomón Rondón | 0.39 | From Corner | — | Goal | Santiago Colombatto |
| 60' |
Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Joel Roca |
| 63' |
Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 78' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Iván Martín |
| 82' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Thomas Lemar |
| 89' |
Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 96' |
Real Oviedo |
David Carmo | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 96' |
Real Oviedo |
Nacho Vidal | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alberto Reina |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Axel Witsel DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.41 |
| Arnau Martinez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Álex Moreno DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.69 |
| Vitor Reis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iván Martín DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Joel Roca AML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.69 |
| Bryan Gil Salvatierra AMR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Viktor Tsygankov AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daley Blind DC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Vladyslav Vanat FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cristhian Stuani Sub | 28 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.81 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Azz-Eddine Ounahi Sub | 28 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Hugo Rincón Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Thomas Lemar Sub | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Portu Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Oviedo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carmo DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Salomón Rondón FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Nacho Vidal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| David Costas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Santiago Colombatto MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| Aarón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilyas Chaira FWL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| Javier López DL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| Federico Viñas FWR | 68 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.93 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Leander Dendoncker MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ovie Ejaria MC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alberto Reina Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| Kwasi Sibo Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Luka Ilic Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rahim Alhassane Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Josip Brekalo Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |