Girona v Valencia — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 15 March 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 12
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
9 – 5
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.58 – 0.18
Goals − xG
-0.18 – -0.22
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Girona win
47.0%
Draw
26.1%
Valencia win
26.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Valencia have scored 12 from 12.6 expected and conceded 17 from 15.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWDWWDLLL last 10
scored 12
from 12.6 xG
conceded 17
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.50–1.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Girona 1.18 xGValencia 1.22 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Girona attacking right
Valencia attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | André Almeida |
| 4' |
Valencia |
Mouctar Diakhaby | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | André Almeida |
| 18' |
Valencia |
André Almeida | 0.10 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 22' |
Valencia |
Umar Sadiq | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
 Girona |
Ladislav Krejcí | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 31' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld |
| 32' |
Girona |
Arthur | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld |
| 39' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | André Almeida |
| 42' |
Valencia |
Umar Sadiq | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Valencia |
André Almeida | 0.21 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | José Gayá |
| 50' |
Girona |
Arnau Martinez | 0.32 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Donny van de Beek |
| 50' |
Girona |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Girona |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Valencia |
César Tárrega | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | José Gayá |
| 57' |
Valencia |
Diego López | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Dimitri Foulquier |
| 59' |
Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Donny van de Beek |
| 62' |
Girona |
Ladislav Krejcí | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oriol Romeu |
| 63' |
Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Goal | Miguel Gutiérrez |
| 69' |
Girona |
Donny van de Beek | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Girona |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yangel Herrera |
| 72' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Girona |
Donny van de Beek | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Barrenechea |
| 80' |
Valencia |
Dimitri Foulquier | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Girona |
Yáser Asprilla | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Donny van de Beek |
| 87' |
Girona |
Yangel Herrera | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yáser Asprilla |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yangel Herrera MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.03 | 0.45 |
| Arnau Martinez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ladislav Krejcí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Daley Blind DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Miguel Gutiérrez DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.45 |
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld FWL | 87 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Viktor Tsygankov FWR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| Arthur MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Bojan Miovski FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Donny van de Beek Sub | 54 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.40 | 0.57 |
| Iván Martín MC | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cristhian Stuani Sub | 29 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Oriol Romeu Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.47 |
| Yáser Asprilla Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| Portu Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego López ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Javier Guerra MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| César Tárrega DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Mouctar Diakhaby DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Dimitri Foulquier DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| José Gayá DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.84 |
| Giorgi Mamardashvili GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enzo Barrenechea MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.72 |
| Cristhian Mosquera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| André Almeida MR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.10 | 0.91 |
| Umar Sadiq FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Luis Rioja Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Rafa Mir Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fran Pérez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pepelu Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |