Go Ahead Eagles v Ajax Amsterdam — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 December 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627

Eredivisie results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Go Ahead Eagles

20:00 UTC

Ajax Amsterdam

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 1,353h before kick-off

Go Ahead Eagles win

27.7%

model 26.5%

Draw

23.0%

model 24.3%

Ajax Amsterdam win

49.3%

model 49.2%

282349

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.8%
1-2 9.4%
0-2 6.8%
2-1 6.7%
2-2 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	64.1%	Under 2.5	35.9%
BTTS yes	65.0%	BTTS no	35.0%
Go Ahead Eagles 1+	74.8%	Go Ahead Eagles 2+	40.1%
Ajax Amsterdam 1+	85.4%	Ajax Amsterdam 2+	57.3%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.92. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Ajax Amsterdam or draw (X2)

Double chance · usually 56%

72.7% fair odds 1.38

strong signal · 1941 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

84.0% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 388 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Ajax Amsterdam carry the stronger rating, 1663 Elo against 1540.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Ajax Amsterdam have an estimated 49.3% win probability, against 27.7% for Go Ahead Eagles and 23.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.38 for Go Ahead Eagles and 1.92 for Ajax Amsterdam.

Why Go Ahead Eagles

Nothing in the data singles out Go Ahead Eagles.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Ajax Amsterdam can win

Ajax Amsterdam carry the stronger rating, 1663 Elo against 1540. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Go Ahead Eagles, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Ajax Amsterdam, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Go Ahead Eagles: 52% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 19.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Ajax Amsterdam: 61% possession, 19.4 shots a match, 9.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Ajax Amsterdam are the model's most likely outcome at 49.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.8%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	262449	1.38–1.92	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	282646	1.34–1.76	1-1 12%	60%	62%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to win	46.3%	47.4%	30.1%	1.57×	2.11
Go Ahead Eagles to win	28.1%	27.9%	44.4%	0.63×	3.58
Draw	25.6%	27.9%	25.6%	1.09×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam & both teams score	25.7%	25.2%	17.2%	1.46×	3.97
Ajax Amsterdam & not both score	20.5%	21.8%	13.1%	1.67×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	20.0%	18.0%	22.2%	0.81×	5.56
Go Ahead Eagles & both teams score	16.6%	18.0%	21.2%	0.85×	5.57
Go Ahead Eagles & not both score	11.5%	13.3%	23.4%	0.57×	7.54
Draw & not both score	5.7%	8.3%	3.5%	2.38×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam & over 1.5	39.5%	34.9%	26.2%	1.33×	2.87
Ajax Amsterdam & over 2.5	32.5%	30.8%	20.4%	1.51×	3.25
Ajax Amsterdam & under 3.5	27.2%	26.1%	19.9%	1.31×	3.84
Go Ahead Eagles & over 1.5	23.3%	21.6%	36.2%	0.60×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	20.0%	18.0%	22.2%	0.81×	5.56
Go Ahead Eagles & over 2.5	19.2%	18.0%	28.9%	0.62×	5.56
Ajax Amsterdam & over 3.5	19.1%	18.0%	10.4%	1.74×	5.56
Go Ahead Eagles & under 3.5	17.8%	18.0%	27.5%	0.65×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	17.5%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	17.5%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
Ajax Amsterdam & under 2.5	13.7%	12.8%	9.9%	1.30×	7.79
Go Ahead Eagles & over 3.5	10.3%	12.8%	17.0%	0.75×	7.79
Go Ahead Eagles & under 2.5	8.9%	7.9%	15.7%	0.51×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	8.2%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	8.2%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.63
Ajax Amsterdam & under 1.5	6.8%	7.9%	4.1%	1.93×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	5.7%	7.9%	3.5%	2.26×	12.63
Go Ahead Eagles & under 1.5	4.9%	4.8%	8.4%	0.57×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (1UP)	63.6%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Go Ahead Eagles (1UP)	48.2%	43.9%	—	—	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (2UP)	46.3%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
Go Ahead Eagles (2UP)	28.1%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to win 2nd half	41.5%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
2nd half drawn	32.9%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Go Ahead Eagles to win 2nd half	25.6%	25.8%	—	—	3.87

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam under 1.5 in 2nd half	71.5%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
Ajax Amsterdam over 0.5 in 2nd half	65.3%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Ajax Amsterdam under 0.5 in 2nd half	34.7%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Ajax Amsterdam over 1.5 in 2nd half	28.5%	24.8%	—	—	4.04

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles under 1.5 in 2nd half	82.2%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Go Ahead Eagles over 0.5 in 2nd half	53.4%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
Go Ahead Eagles under 0.5 in 2nd half	46.6%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
Go Ahead Eagles over 1.5 in 2nd half	17.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (+2.5)	95.6%	96.3%	86.8%	1.11×	1.04
Ajax Amsterdam (+1.5)	87.3%	88.5%	74.7%	1.18×	1.13
Ajax Amsterdam (+0.5)	71.9%	73.7%	55.6%	1.33×	1.36
Go Ahead Eagles (+0.5)	53.7%	52.4%	69.9%	0.75×	1.91
Ajax Amsterdam (-0.5)	46.3%	47.6%	30.1%	1.58×	2.10
Go Ahead Eagles (-0.5)	28.1%	26.3%	44.4%	0.59×	3.80
Go Ahead Eagles (-1.5)	12.7%	11.5%	25.3%	0.46×	8.67
Go Ahead Eagles (-2.5)	4.4%	3.7%	13.2%	0.28×	27.03

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to concede	73.8%	76.7%	83.6%	0.92×	1.30
Ajax Amsterdam clean sheet	26.2%	23.3%	16.4%	1.41×	4.30

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam clean sheet in 1st half	56.2%	57.0%	—	—	1.76
Ajax Amsterdam to concede in 1st half	43.8%	43.0%	—	—	2.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to concede in 2nd half	53.4%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Ajax Amsterdam clean sheet in 2nd half	46.6%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam over 2.5 corners	83.7%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Ajax Amsterdam under 6.5 corners	70.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Ajax Amsterdam over 3.5 corners	70.5%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Ajax Amsterdam under 5.5 corners	58.5%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Ajax Amsterdam over 4.5 corners	55.7%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Ajax Amsterdam under 4.5 corners	44.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Ajax Amsterdam over 5.5 corners	41.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Ajax Amsterdam under 3.5 corners	29.5%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Ajax Amsterdam over 6.5 corners	29.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Ajax Amsterdam under 2.5 corners	16.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam under 3.5 goals	89.7%	87.8%	94.4%	0.93×	1.14
Ajax Amsterdam over 0.5 goals	82.8%	81.5%	73.2%	1.11×	1.23
Ajax Amsterdam under 2.5 goals	74.1%	71.9%	84.9%	0.85×	1.39
Ajax Amsterdam over 1.5 goals	52.6%	53.5%	41.9%	1.28×	1.87
Ajax Amsterdam under 1.5 goals	47.4%	46.5%	58.1%	0.80×	2.15
Ajax Amsterdam over 2.5 goals	25.9%	28.1%	15.1%	1.87×	3.56
Ajax Amsterdam under 0.5 goals	17.2%	18.5%	26.8%	0.69×	5.40
Ajax Amsterdam over 3.5 goals	10.3%	12.2%	5.6%	2.16×	8.21

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam under 1.5 in 1st half	84.3%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Ajax Amsterdam over 0.5 in 1st half	50.6%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Ajax Amsterdam under 0.5 in 1st half	49.4%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Ajax Amsterdam over 1.5 in 1st half	15.7%	16.7%	—	—	6.00

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam scores more in 2nd half	43.4%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Ajax Amsterdam scores equally in both	32.6%	33.4%	—	—	2.99
Ajax Amsterdam scores more in 1st half	24.1%	22.1%	—	—	4.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles (away no bet)	52.3%	51.7%	63.5%	0.81×	1.94
Draw (away no bet)	47.7%	48.3%	36.5%	1.32×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam even goals	51.5%	52.6%	57.4%	0.92×	1.90
Ajax Amsterdam odd goals	48.5%	47.4%	42.6%	1.11×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.1%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.9%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	71.7%	67.4%	—	—	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	28.3%	32.6%	—	—	3.06

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	62.5%	60.1%	—	—	1.67
Ajax Amsterdam to score 2+ in a row	42.8%	38.7%	—	—	2.58
Go Ahead Eagles to score 2+ in a row	28.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.3%	19.7%	—	—	5.09
Ajax Amsterdam to score 3+ in a row	16.7%	16.2%	—	—	6.16
Go Ahead Eagles to score 3+ in a row	8.2%	5.6%	—	—	17.90

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles corners (+3.5)	83.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Ajax Amsterdam corners (+3.5)	79.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Go Ahead Eagles corners (+2.5)	76.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Ajax Amsterdam corners (+2.5)	71.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Go Ahead Eagles corners (+1.5)	67.7%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Ajax Amsterdam corners (+1.5)	62.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Go Ahead Eagles corners (-1.5)	37.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Ajax Amsterdam corners (-1.5)	32.3%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Go Ahead Eagles corners (-2.5)	28.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Ajax Amsterdam corners (-2.5)	23.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Go Ahead Eagles corners (-3.5)	20.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Ajax Amsterdam corners (-3.5)	16.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.94

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	39.8%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
0-8 corners	30.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	78.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 8.5 corners	69.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Under 12.5 corners	68.8%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	60.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	59.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	50.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	49.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	40.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 11.5 corners	39.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 12.5 corners	31.2%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 8.5 corners	30.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	21.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.8%	11.5%	11.7%	0.98×	8.72
1-2	9.4%	7.4%	8.1%	0.92×	13.50
0-1	6.8%	7.4%	4.1%	1.80×	13.51
0-2	7.0%	7.4%	5.9%	1.25×	13.51
2-1	7.1%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.51
0-0	5.7%	7.4%	3.5%	2.11×	13.51
1-3	5.5%	7.4%	2.6%	2.86×	13.51
2-2	6.3%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.51
1-0	4.9%	1.7%	8.4%	0.20×	58.29
0-3	4.1%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.30
0-4	1.8%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.31
1-4	2.4%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.31
2-0	4.0%	1.7%	7.5%	0.23×	58.30
2-3	3.7%	1.7%	2.4%	0.70×	58.30
2-4	1.6%	1.7%	0.5%	3.76×	58.31
3-0	1.8%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.31
3-1	3.2%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.30
3-2	2.8%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.30
3-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.31
3-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.32
4-0	0.6%	1.7%	1.8%	0.94×	58.32
4-1	1.1%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.31
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	1.2%	1.41×	58.31
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	11.27×	58.32
Any other score	4.5%	1.7%	6.5%	0.26×	58.29

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (2nd half DNB)	61.8%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Go Ahead Eagles (2nd half DNB)	38.2%	37.2%	—	—	2.69

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam leading at HT (DNB)	56.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Go Ahead Eagles leading at HT (DNB)	43.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles or Ajax Amsterdam (12)	74.4%	72.1%	74.4%	0.97×	1.39
Ajax Amsterdam or draw (X2)	71.9%	72.1%	55.6%	1.30×	1.39
Go Ahead Eagles or draw (1X)	53.7%	52.6%	69.9%	0.75×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam or draw at HT	74.3%	75.0%	—	—	1.33
Go Ahead Eagles or draw at HT	66.3%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Go Ahead Eagles or Ajax Amsterdam at HT	59.3%	57.2%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam or draw (1UP)	71.9%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Go Ahead Eagles or draw (1UP)	53.7%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam or draw in 2nd half	74.4%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Go Ahead Eagles or Ajax Amsterdam in 2nd half	67.1%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Go Ahead Eagles or draw in 2nd half	58.5%	58.0%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.9%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Neither half drawn	41.1%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (DNB)	62.2%	62.7%	40.4%	1.55×	1.60
Go Ahead Eagles (DNB)	37.8%	37.3%	59.6%	0.63×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to score first	53.6%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Go Ahead Eagles to score first	40.8%	41.6%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	5.7%	7.4%	—	—	13.52

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.3%	56.6%	60.3%	0.94×	1.77
Not both teams to score	37.7%	43.4%	39.7%	1.09×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	50.5%	47.2%	48.7%	0.97×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	28.3%	33.3%	28.8%	1.16×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	11.8%	12.4%	11.7%	1.05×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	9.4%	8.3%	11.1%	0.75×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.6%	79.7%	80.4%	0.99×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	20.4%	20.3%	19.6%	1.03×	4.93

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	64.7%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	35.3%	34.3%	—	—	2.91

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	50.1%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Both score 2nd half only	27.5%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
Both score 1st half only	14.6%	10.8%	—	—	9.28
Both score in both halves	7.7%	6.8%	—	—	14.68

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.6%	81.0%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	22.4%	19.0%	—	—	5.27

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	61.1%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
A half without a goal	38.9%	40.4%	—	—	2.48

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.2%	47.2%	46.7%	1.01×	2.12
4-6 goals	33.7%	30.7%	33.8%	0.91×	3.25
0-1 goals	17.3%	20.2%	15.7%	1.29×	4.94
7+ goals	3.9%	1.8%	4.1%	0.45×	54.11

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to score exactly 1	30.3%	33.8%	31.5%	1.07×	2.96
Ajax Amsterdam to score exactly 2	26.7%	27.4%	26.9%	1.02×	3.65
Ajax Amsterdam to score 3+	25.9%	27.4%	15.1%	1.82×	3.66
Ajax Amsterdam to score exactly 0	17.2%	19.6%	26.8%	0.73×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles to score exactly 1	35.1%	35.6%	33.2%	1.07×	2.81
Go Ahead Eagles to score exactly 0	26.2%	26.5%	16.4%	1.61×	3.77
Go Ahead Eagles to score exactly 2	23.5%	23.3%	26.9%	0.87×	4.29
Go Ahead Eagles to score 3+	15.2%	18.8%	23.7%	0.79×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	40.7%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Ajax Amsterdam leading at HT	33.7%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Go Ahead Eagles leading at HT	25.7%	25.0%	—	—	4.00

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam -1: 1	53.7%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Ajax Amsterdam -1: 2	25.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Ajax Amsterdam -1: X	20.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (0:1)	71.9%	71.1%	55.6%	1.28×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	15.4%	17.8%	19.3%	0.92×	5.62
Go Ahead Eagles (0:1)	12.7%	13.7%	25.3%	0.54×	7.29

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (0:2)	87.3%	87.1%	74.7%	1.17×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	8.3%	7.7%	12.2%	0.63×	13.03
Go Ahead Eagles (0:2)	4.4%	3.8%	13.2%	0.28×	26.61

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (0:3)	95.6%	96.6%	86.8%	1.11×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.2%	2.4%	7.8%	0.31×	42.07
Go Ahead Eagles (0:3)	1.2%	2.4%	5.6%	0.42×	42.16

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (0:4)	98.8%	98.1%	94.4%	1.04×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	2.6%	0.47×	82.00
Go Ahead Eagles (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	3.2%	0.38×	82.07

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles (1:0)	53.7%	54.1%	69.9%	0.77×	1.85
Ajax Amsterdam (1:0)	25.7%	25.0%	15.5%	1.61×	4.00
Draw (1:0)	20.6%	21.7%	14.8%	1.47×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles (2:0)	74.3%	76.6%	84.5%	0.91×	1.31
Draw (2:0)	14.4%	10.3%	8.8%	1.17×	9.70
Ajax Amsterdam (2:0)	11.3%	10.3%	6.8%	1.50×	9.73

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.1%	48.8%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	26.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	24.7%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles to concede	82.8%	80.9%	73.2%	1.11×	1.24
Go Ahead Eagles clean sheet	17.2%	19.1%	26.8%	0.71×	5.24

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles to concede in 1st half	50.6%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Go Ahead Eagles clean sheet in 1st half	49.4%	44.4%	—	—	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles to concede in 2nd half	65.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Go Ahead Eagles clean sheet in 2nd half	34.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.00

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles over 2.5 corners	85.9%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Go Ahead Eagles over 3.5 corners	73.7%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Go Ahead Eagles under 6.5 corners	66.7%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Go Ahead Eagles over 4.5 corners	59.7%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Go Ahead Eagles under 5.5 corners	54.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Go Ahead Eagles over 5.5 corners	45.7%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Go Ahead Eagles under 4.5 corners	40.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Go Ahead Eagles over 6.5 corners	33.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Go Ahead Eagles under 3.5 corners	26.3%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Go Ahead Eagles under 2.5 corners	14.1%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles under 3.5 goals	95.3%	96.4%	89.2%	1.08×	1.04
Go Ahead Eagles under 2.5 goals	84.8%	82.2%	76.3%	1.08×	1.22
Go Ahead Eagles over 0.5 goals	73.8%	74.3%	83.6%	0.89×	1.35
Go Ahead Eagles under 1.5 goals	61.3%	63.6%	49.5%	1.29×	1.57
Go Ahead Eagles over 1.5 goals	38.7%	36.4%	50.5%	0.72×	2.75
Go Ahead Eagles under 0.5 goals	26.2%	25.7%	16.4%	1.57×	3.88
Go Ahead Eagles over 2.5 goals	15.2%	17.8%	23.7%	0.75×	5.63
Go Ahead Eagles over 3.5 goals	4.7%	3.6%	10.8%	0.34×	27.46

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles under 1.5 in 1st half	88.6%	90.3%	—	—	1.11
Go Ahead Eagles under 0.5 in 1st half	56.2%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Go Ahead Eagles over 0.5 in 1st half	43.8%	43.3%	—	—	2.31
Go Ahead Eagles over 1.5 in 1st half	11.4%	9.7%	—	—	10.31

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles scores equally in both	39.0%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Go Ahead Eagles scores more in 2nd half	36.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Go Ahead Eagles scores more in 1st half	24.8%	21.3%	—	—	4.69

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (home no bet)	64.3%	60.1%	54.1%	1.11×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	35.7%	39.9%	45.9%	0.87×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles even goals	53.4%	50.7%	51.0%	0.99×	1.97
Go Ahead Eagles odd goals	46.6%	49.3%	49.0%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.0%	28.3%	—	—	3.54
HT 0-1	19.4%	18.7%	—	—	5.36
HT 1-0	15.8%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-1	11.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 0-2	6.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.48
Any other HT score	5.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.50
HT 2-0	4.6%	2.4%	—	—	41.99
HT 1-2	4.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.04
HT 2-1	3.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.08
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.22

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam at HT / Ajax Amsterdam at FT	26.5%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
Go Ahead Eagles at HT / Go Ahead Eagles at FT	16.3%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Ajax Amsterdam at FT	16.2%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Go Ahead Eagles at FT	9.8%	6.0%	—	—	16.54
Go Ahead Eagles at HT / Draw at FT	5.8%	6.0%	—	—	16.66
Ajax Amsterdam at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.68
Go Ahead Eagles at HT / Ajax Amsterdam at FT	3.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.66
Ajax Amsterdam at HT / Go Ahead Eagles at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.72

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to score last	53.7%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Go Ahead Eagles to score last	40.7%	39.9%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	5.7%	7.4%	—	—	13.52

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.3%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Ajax Amsterdam to lead by 1 at any time	63.6%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	52.2%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Go Ahead Eagles to lead by 1 at any time	48.2%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
Ajax Amsterdam to lead by 2 at any time	33.3%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.3%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Go Ahead Eagles to lead by 2 at any time	19.3%	15.0%	—	—	6.68
Ajax Amsterdam to lead by 3 at any time	14.1%	10.5%	—	—	9.53
Go Ahead Eagles to lead by 3 at any time	6.2%	6.7%	—	—	14.97

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles most corners	47.8%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Ajax Amsterdam most corners	42.0%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	10.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.9%	83.4%	87.5%	0.95×	1.20
2-6 goals	78.8%	78.7%	80.4%	0.98×	1.27
1-4 goals	74.1%	72.4%	75.8%	0.95×	1.38
2-5 goals	73.3%	72.4%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.5%	63.3%	63.6%	1.00×	1.58
1-3 goals	56.8%	59.1%	58.9%	1.00×	1.69
3-6 goals	56.0%	59.1%	55.7%	1.06×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.5%	53.2%	50.7%	1.05×	1.88
2-3 goals	45.2%	48.5%	46.7%	1.04×	2.06
3-4 goals	39.7%	39.2%	39.0%	1.01×	2.55
1-2 goals	34.4%	35.2%	37.0%	0.95×	2.84
4-6 goals	33.7%	35.2%	33.8%	1.04×	2.84
4-5 goals	28.1%	30.2%	28.8%	1.05×	3.31
5-6 goals	16.3%	18.8%	16.9%	1.11×	5.31
7+ goals	3.9%	2.6%	4.1%	0.62×	39.05

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam never behind	46.1%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Go Ahead Eagles never behind	30.8%	36.1%	—	—	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.6%	50.9%	48.9%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	52.4%	49.1%	51.1%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.3%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.7%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.1%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.9%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.3%	92.3%	96.5%	0.96×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	90.6%	92.3%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	82.7%	82.3%	84.3%	0.98×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	79.8%	77.3%	79.1%	0.98×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	62.4%	61.7%	62.3%	0.99×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	59.9%	58.6%	59.7%	0.98×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	40.1%	41.4%	40.3%	1.03×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	37.6%	38.3%	37.7%	1.01×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	20.2%	22.7%	20.9%	1.09×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	17.3%	17.7%	15.7%	1.13×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	9.4%	7.7%	9.1%	0.85×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	5.7%	7.7%	3.5%	2.21×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.9%	97.2%	95.7%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.4%	86.7%	89.7%	0.97×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	77.6%	75.9%	79.2%	0.96×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	75.6%	75.9%	74.9%	1.01×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	51.6%	51.9%	51.7%	1.00×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	48.4%	48.1%	48.3%	0.99×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	24.4%	24.1%	25.1%	0.96×	4.14
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	22.4%	24.1%	20.8%	1.16×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.6%	13.3%	10.3%	1.28×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.1%	2.8%	4.3%	0.65×	35.54

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.1%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	63.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	36.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.9%	10.9%	—	—	9.20

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.4%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	72.5%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	54.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	45.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	27.5%	22.4%	—	—	4.46
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.6%	16.7%	—	—	5.97

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles not to score in both halves	76.6%	78.5%	—	—	1.27
Ajax Amsterdam not to score in both halves	67.0%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Ajax Amsterdam to score in both halves	33.0%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Go Ahead Eagles to score in both halves	23.4%	21.5%	—	—	4.65

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	62.3%	60.3%	60.3%	1.00×	1.66
Only Ajax Amsterdam scores	20.5%	22.2%	13.1%	1.70×	4.50
Only Go Ahead Eagles scores	11.5%	11.0%	23.4%	0.47×	9.07
Neither team scores	5.7%	7.1%	3.5%	2.03×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.8%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	22.1%	1.02×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.3%	17.5%	17.0%	1.02×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	11.6%	12.1%	12.3%	0.98×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	10.8%	12.1%	11.9%	1.02×	8.25
6 or more goals	9.4%	7.6%	9.1%	0.83×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	5.7%	7.6%	3.5%	2.17×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.2%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	28.0%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
2 goals in 1st half	23.0%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	13.9%	10.8%	—	—	9.28

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	54.7%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	28.7%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	16.6%	16.4%	—	—	6.10

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles not to win both halves	93.3%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Ajax Amsterdam not to win both halves	85.8%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Ajax Amsterdam to win both halves	14.2%	12.1%	—	—	8.26
Go Ahead Eagles to win both halves	6.7%	5.9%	—	—	17.03

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to win either half	61.0%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Go Ahead Eagles to win neither half	55.5%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Go Ahead Eagles to win either half	44.5%	40.9%	—	—	2.44
Ajax Amsterdam to win neither half	39.0%	35.0%	—	—	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Go Ahead Eagles not to win to nil	88.5%	88.1%	76.6%	1.15×	1.14
Ajax Amsterdam not to win to nil	79.5%	78.1%	86.9%	0.90×	1.28
Ajax Amsterdam to win to nil	20.5%	21.9%	13.1%	1.67×	4.58
Go Ahead Eagles to win to nil	11.5%	11.9%	23.4%	0.51×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.6%	27.9%	25.6%	1.09×	3.59
Ajax Amsterdam by 1	20.6%	24.1%	14.8%	1.63×	4.15
Go Ahead Eagles by 1	15.4%	17.0%	19.3%	0.88×	5.87
Ajax Amsterdam by 2	14.4%	11.8%	8.8%	1.33×	8.50
Ajax Amsterdam by 3+	11.3%	11.8%	6.8%	1.72×	8.51
Go Ahead Eagles by 2	8.3%	7.2%	12.2%	0.59×	13.90
Go Ahead Eagles by 3+	4.4%	2.7%	13.2%	0.21×	36.77