Go Ahead Eagles v Sparta Rotterdam — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 October 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627
Eredivisie
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.9%
- 2-1 9.6%
- 2-0 7.9%
- 1-0 7.5%
- 1-2 6.6%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 58.3% | Under 2.5 | 41.7% |
| BTTS yes | 60.2% | BTTS no | 39.8% |
| Go Ahead Eagles 1+ | 83.5% | Go Ahead Eagles 2+ | 53.8% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 1+ | 70.6% | Sparta Rotterdam 2+ | 34.6% |
Expected goals 1.80 – 1.23. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Go Ahead Eagles carry the stronger rating, 1537 Elo against 1469.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Go Ahead Eagles have an estimated 48.6% win probability, against 28.0% for the draw and 23.4% for Sparta Rotterdam. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.80 for Go Ahead Eagles and 1.23 for Sparta Rotterdam.
Why Go Ahead Eagles
Go Ahead Eagles carry the stronger rating, 1537 Elo against 1469.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 28.0%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Sparta Rotterdam can win
Nothing in the data singles out Sparta Rotterdam.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Go Ahead Eagles, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Sparta Rotterdam, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Go Ahead Eagles: 51% possession, 11.6 shots a match, 22.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Sparta Rotterdam: 49% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Go Ahead Eagles are the model's most likely outcome at 48.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.90–1.26 | 1-1 11% | 61% | 62% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.