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Granada v Girona — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 December 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Granada win
31.0%
model 35.0%
Draw
23.8%
model 22.8%
Girona win
45.2%
model 42.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 10.1%
  2. 1-2 8.8%
  3. 2-1 7.9%
  4. 0-1 7.1%
  5. 2-2 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.562.2% Under 2.537.8%
BTTS yes63.5% BTTS no36.5%
Granada 1+78.1% Granada 2+44.9%
Girona 1+81.5% Girona 2+50.4%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.69. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
51/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
93%
★ Best pick
Girona over 1.5 goals
Away goals O/U · usually 31%
51.1% fair odds 1.96
strong signal · 624 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Girona (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 80%
83.7% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Girona.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Girona have an estimated 45.2% win probability, against 31.0% for Granada and 23.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.52 for Granada and 1.69 for Girona.

Why Granada

Nothing in the data singles out Granada.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.8%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.52 to 1.69. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Girona can win

Nothing in the data singles out Girona.

Key players

Girona's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Viktor Tsygankov (0.37), Azz-Eddine Ounahi (0.32), Bryan Gil Salvatierra (0.18).

Availability

No lineup on record for Granada, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Granada: 48% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Girona: 55% possession, 17.6 shots a match, 8.2 faced, 0.27 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Girona are the model's most likely outcome at 45.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.1%. Confidence 51/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWDLLLDDLD last 10 scored 8 from 12.7 xG conceded 12 from 15.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.52–1.69 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.77–1.65 1-1 9% 66% 67%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada to win 41.6% 42.9% 45.5% 0.94× 2.33
Girona to win 36.3% 36.3% 28.1% 1.29× 2.75
Draw 22.1% 24.4% 26.5% 0.92× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada & both teams score 25.4% 25.2% 22.0% 1.14× 3.98
Girona & both teams score 22.4% 21.8% 14.8% 1.48× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 19.0% 18.0% 17.5% 1.03× 5.56
Granada & not both score 16.2% 18.0% 23.6% 0.76× 5.57
Girona & not both score 13.9% 13.3% 13.4% 0.99× 7.53
Draw & not both score 3.1% 4.9% 9.1% 0.53× 20.61
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada & over 1.5 35.5% 34.9% 32.6% 1.07× 2.87
Girona & over 1.5 30.7% 30.8% 19.5% 1.58× 3.25
Granada & over 2.5 30.4% 30.8% 26.3% 1.17× 3.25
Girona & over 2.5 26.3% 26.1% 16.7% 1.56× 3.84
Granada & under 3.5 22.7% 21.6% 32.2% 0.67× 4.63
Girona & under 3.5 20.4% 21.6% 19.6% 1.10× 4.63
Granada & over 3.5 18.9% 18.0% 13.4% 1.34× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 19.0% 18.0% 17.5% 1.03× 5.56
Girona & over 3.5 16.0% 18.0% 8.6% 2.09× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 12.4% 12.8% 20.2% 0.63× 7.79
Draw & under 3.5 12.4% 12.8% 20.2% 0.63× 7.79
Granada & under 2.5 11.2% 12.8% 19.3% 0.67× 7.79
Girona & under 2.5 10.0% 12.8% 11.5% 1.11× 7.79
Draw & over 2.5 9.7% 7.9% 6.4% 1.24× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 9.7% 7.9% 6.4% 1.24× 12.63
Granada & under 1.5 6.0% 7.9% 13.0% 0.61× 12.63
Girona & under 1.5 5.6% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 3.1% 4.8% 9.1% 0.53× 20.82
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada (1UP) 60.8% 62.7% — — 1.59
Girona (1UP) 56.5% 58.0% — — 1.73
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada (2UP) 41.6% 47.1% — — 2.13
Girona (2UP) 36.3% 37.4% — — 2.68
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada to win 2nd half 35.2% 35.9% — — 2.78
Girona to win 2nd half 34.1% 34.4% — — 2.91
2nd half drawn 30.7% 34.3% — — 2.92
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Girona under 1.5 in 2nd half 74.0% 75.5% — — 1.33
Girona over 0.5 in 2nd half 62.8% 60.2% — — 1.66
Girona under 0.5 in 2nd half 37.2% 39.8% — — 2.52
Girona over 1.5 in 2nd half 26.0% 24.5% — — 4.08
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada under 1.5 in 2nd half 73.2% 74.0% — — 1.35
Granada over 0.5 in 2nd half 63.6% 63.4% — — 1.58
Granada under 0.5 in 2nd half 36.4% 36.6% — — 2.73
Granada over 1.5 in 2nd half 26.8% 26.0% — — 3.85
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Girona (+2.5) 90.6% 92.1% 92.3% 1.00× 1.09
Girona (+1.5) 78.2% 78.5% 80.4% 0.98× 1.27
Granada (+0.5) 63.7% 62.9% 71.9% 0.88× 1.59
Girona (+0.5) 58.4% 57.0% 54.5% 1.05× 1.75
Granada (-0.5) 41.6% 43.0% 45.5% 0.94× 2.33
Girona (-0.5) 36.3% 37.1% 28.1% 1.32× 2.70
Granada (-1.5) 21.8% 21.5% 19.6% 1.10× 4.65
Granada (-2.5) 9.4% 7.9% 7.7% 1.03× 12.67
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Girona to concede 83.0% 81.5% 77.6% 1.05× 1.23
Girona clean sheet 17.0% 18.5% 22.4% 0.82× 5.41
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Girona to concede in 1st half 53.3% 50.7% — — 1.97
Girona clean sheet in 1st half 46.7% 49.3% — — 2.03
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Girona to concede in 2nd half 63.6% 61.9% — — 1.62
Girona clean sheet in 2nd half 36.4% 38.1% — — 2.63
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Girona under 6.5 corners 85.1% 85.2% — — 1.17
Girona under 5.5 corners 75.3% 76.0% — — 1.32
Girona over 2.5 corners 72.8% 71.6% — — 1.40
Girona under 4.5 corners 61.7% 61.8% — — 1.62
Girona over 3.5 corners 55.1% 57.2% — — 1.75
Girona under 3.5 corners 44.9% 42.8% — — 2.33
Girona over 4.5 corners 38.3% 38.2% — — 2.62
Girona under 2.5 corners 27.2% 28.4% — — 3.52
Girona over 5.5 corners 24.7% 24.0% — — 4.17
Girona over 6.5 corners 14.9% 14.8% — — 6.77
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Girona under 3.5 goals 91.5% 92.3% 97.0% 0.95× 1.08
Girona over 0.5 goals 80.7% 81.4% 67.4% 1.21× 1.23
Girona under 2.5 goals 77.1% 76.3% 89.1% 0.86× 1.31
Girona under 1.5 goals 51.0% 53.5% 69.4% 0.77× 1.87
Girona over 1.5 goals 49.0% 46.5% 30.6% 1.52× 2.15
Girona over 2.5 goals 22.9% 23.7% 10.9% 2.18× 4.21
Girona under 0.5 goals 19.3% 18.6% 32.6% 0.57× 5.39
Girona over 3.5 goals 8.5% 7.7% 3.0% 2.52× 13.05
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Girona under 1.5 in 1st half 85.8% 89.1% — — 1.12
Girona under 0.5 in 1st half 51.7% 55.6% — — 1.80
Girona over 0.5 in 1st half 48.3% 44.4% — — 2.25
Girona over 1.5 in 1st half 14.2% 10.9% — — 9.16
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Girona scores more in 2nd half 42.3% 43.7% — — 2.29
Girona scores equally in both 34.0% 33.5% — — 2.99
Girona scores more in 1st half 23.7% 22.1% — — 4.52
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada (away no bet) 65.3% 66.3% 63.2% 1.05× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 34.7% 33.7% 36.8% 0.91× 2.97
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Girona even goals 51.9% 52.6% 54.6% 0.96× 1.90
Girona odd goals 48.1% 47.4% 45.4% 1.04× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 75.3% 81.0% — — 1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals 24.7% 19.0% — — 5.28
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 76.1% 72.3% — — 1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals 23.9% 27.7% — — 3.61
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 67.1% 62.4% — — 1.60
Granada to score 2+ in a row 41.4% 38.6% — — 2.59
Girona to score 2+ in a row 37.2% 36.6% — — 2.73
Either team to score 3+ in a row 27.4% 25.2% — — 3.97
Granada to score 3+ in a row 15.4% 16.2% — — 6.17
Girona to score 3+ in a row 12.7% 12.1% — — 8.30
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada corners (+3.5) 88.9% 84.5% — — 1.18
Granada corners (+2.5) 82.4% 79.8% — — 1.25
Girona corners (+3.5) 80.2% 79.8% — — 1.25
Granada corners (+1.5) 73.7% 70.7% — — 1.41
Girona corners (+2.5) 71.3% 70.7% — — 1.41
Girona corners (+1.5) 60.5% 61.8% — — 1.62
Granada corners (-1.5) 39.5% 38.2% — — 2.62
Granada corners (-2.5) 28.7% 29.3% — — 3.42
Girona corners (-1.5) 26.3% 29.3% — — 3.42
Granada corners (-3.5) 19.8% 20.2% — — 4.94
Girona corners (-2.5) 17.6% 20.2% — — 4.94
Girona corners (-3.5) 11.1% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 49.8% 41.8% — — 2.39
9-11 corners 29.2% 31.2% — — 3.21
12+ corners 21.0% 25.6% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 85.5% 83.1% — — 1.20
Under 11.5 corners 79.0% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 70.8% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 61.8% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 9.5 corners 61.0% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 50.2% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 49.8% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 39.0% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 7.5 corners 38.2% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 29.2% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 11.5 corners 21.0% 23.4% — — 4.28
Over 12.5 corners 14.5% 16.9% — — 5.91
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 2.00
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 9.3% 7.4% 11.2% 0.66× 13.50
2-1 8.5% 7.4% 10.1% 0.74× 13.51
1-2 7.9% 7.4% 7.0% 1.05× 13.51
2-2 7.0% 7.4% 5.7% 1.31× 13.51
0-1 5.6% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.51
1-0 6.0% 7.4% 13.0% 0.57× 13.51
2-0 5.1% 7.4% 6.4% 1.16× 13.51
3-1 5.0% 7.4% 4.6% 1.61× 13.51
Any other score 6.0% 7.4% 2.7% 2.72× 13.51
0-0 3.1% 1.7% 9.1% 0.19× 58.30
0-2 4.4% 1.7% 2.9% 0.58× 58.29
0-3 2.4% 1.7% 1.3% 1.36× 58.31
0-4 1.0% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.31
1-3 4.3% 1.7% 3.7% 0.47× 58.29
1-4 1.8% 1.7% 0.8% 2.05× 58.31
2-3 3.8% 1.7% 2.3% 0.74× 58.30
2-4 1.6% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.31
3-0 3.0% 1.7% 3.0% 0.56× 58.30
3-2 4.1% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.30
3-3 2.3% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.31
3-4 0.9% 1.7% 0.2% 8.18× 58.31
4-0 1.3% 1.7% 1.2% 1.49× 58.31
4-1 2.2% 1.7% 1.9% 0.91× 58.31
4-2 1.8% 1.7% 1.2% 1.49× 58.31
4-3 1.0% 1.7% 0.3% 5.45× 58.31
4-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.2% 8.18× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada (2nd half DNB) 50.8% 52.7% — — 1.90
Girona (2nd half DNB) 49.2% 47.3% — — 2.11
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada leading at HT (DNB) 55.0% 56.2% — — 1.78
Girona leading at HT (DNB) 45.0% 43.8% — — 2.28
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada or Girona (12) 77.9% 75.6% 73.5% 1.03× 1.32
Granada or draw (1X) 63.7% 63.7% 71.9% 0.89× 1.57
Girona or draw (X2) 58.4% 57.1% 54.5% 1.05× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada or draw at HT 72.0% 74.9% — — 1.34
Girona or draw at HT 65.8% 67.1% — — 1.49
Granada or Girona at HT 62.2% 61.4% — — 1.63
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada or draw (1UP) 63.7% 71.7% — — 1.40
Girona or draw (1UP) 58.4% 63.1% — — 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada or Girona in 2nd half 69.3% 65.7% — — 1.52
Granada or draw in 2nd half 65.9% 65.6% — — 1.52
Girona or draw in 2nd half 64.8% 64.1% — — 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 57.2% 58.4% — — 1.71
Neither half drawn 42.8% 41.6% — — 2.40
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada (DNB) 53.3% 51.0% 61.8% 0.82× 1.96
Girona (DNB) 46.7% 49.0% 38.2% 1.28× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada to score first 50.3% 53.2% — — 1.88
Girona to score first 46.7% 46.0% — — 2.18
No goal scored 3.1% 4.3% — — 23.46
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 66.8% 58.4% 54.1% 1.08× 1.71
Not both teams to score 33.2% 41.6% 45.9% 0.91× 2.41
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 57.5% 47.6% 43.0% 1.11× 2.10
Not both score & under 2.5 24.3% 27.8% 39.7% 0.70× 3.60
Both score & under 2.5 9.3% 8.3% 11.2% 0.74× 12.06
Not both score & over 2.5 8.9% 8.3% 6.3% 1.32× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 74.1% 80.6% 85.6% 0.94× 1.24
Both teams to score 2+ 25.9% 19.4% 14.4% 1.35× 5.16
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 60.2% 65.4% — — 1.53
Both teams to score in 2nd half 39.8% 34.6% — — 2.89
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 44.7% 50.8% — — 1.97
Both score 2nd half only 29.6% 27.2% — — 3.67
Both score 1st half only 15.4% 14.9% — — 6.72
Both score in both halves 10.3% 10.7% — — 9.34
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 74.3% 79.6% — — 1.26
Both teams to score by HT 25.7% 20.4% — — 4.91
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 65.5% 65.9% — — 1.52
A half without a goal 34.5% 34.1% — — 2.94
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 40.7% 42.1% 41.3% 1.02× 2.37
4-6 goals 38.7% 35.1% 26.7% 1.31× 2.85
0-1 goals 14.7% 16.9% 30.6% 0.55× 5.90
7+ goals 5.9% 7.6% 1.6% 4.83× 13.16
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Girona to score exactly 1 31.7% 33.8% 36.9% 0.92× 2.96
Girona to score exactly 2 26.1% 27.4% 19.8% 1.38× 3.66
Girona to score 3+ 22.9% 22.3% 10.9% 2.05× 4.48
Girona to score exactly 0 19.3% 19.6% 32.6% 0.60× 5.11
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada to score exactly 1 30.1% 32.5% 35.6% 0.91× 3.07
Granada to score exactly 2 26.7% 26.5% 24.9% 1.06× 3.77
Granada to score 3+ 26.2% 26.5% 17.2% 1.54× 3.77
Granada to score exactly 0 17.0% 18.8% 22.4% 0.84× 5.33
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 37.8% 38.6% — — 2.59
Granada leading at HT 34.2% 32.9% — — 3.04
Girona leading at HT 28.0% 25.1% — — 3.98
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada -1: 2 58.4% 56.8% — — 1.76
Granada -1: 1 21.8% 23.5% — — 4.26
Granada -1: X 19.8% 17.5% — — 5.70
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Girona (0:1) 58.4% 55.8% 54.5% 1.02× 1.79
Granada (0:1) 21.8% 24.2% 19.6% 1.23× 4.13
Draw (0:1) 19.8% 17.8% 26.0% 0.69× 5.61
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Girona (0:2) 78.2% 79.4% 80.4% 0.99× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 12.4% 11.0% 12.1% 0.91× 9.10
Granada (0:2) 9.4% 7.7% 7.7% 1.00× 13.02
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Girona (0:3) 90.6% 92.7% 92.3% 1.00× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 6.0% 5.8% 5.3% 1.09× 17.23
Granada (0:3) 3.4% 2.4% 2.4% 0.99× 42.06
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Girona (0:4) 96.6% 98.1% 97.6% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.4% 1.2% 2.1% 0.58× 81.84
Granada (0:4) 1.0% 1.2% 0.4% 2.91× 81.99
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada (1:0) 63.7% 65.4% 71.9% 0.91× 1.53
Draw (1:0) 18.4% 17.1% 17.9% 0.95× 5.85
Girona (1:0) 18.0% 17.1% 10.3% 1.66× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada (2:0) 82.0% 84.6% 89.7% 0.94× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 10.7% 10.3% 7.1% 1.44× 9.74
Girona (2:0) 7.3% 6.4% 3.2% 1.96× 15.69
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 51.2% 50.3% — — 1.99
1st half highest scoring 27.5% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 21.3% 24.4% — — 4.10
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada to concede 80.7% 80.8% 67.4% 1.20× 1.24
Granada clean sheet 19.3% 19.2% 32.6% 0.59× 5.22
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada clean sheet in 1st half 51.7% 55.6% — — 1.80
Granada to concede in 1st half 48.3% 44.4% — — 2.25
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada to concede in 2nd half 62.8% 59.9% — — 1.67
Granada clean sheet in 2nd half 37.2% 40.1% — — 2.49
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada over 2.5 corners 80.1% 80.9% — — 1.24
Granada under 6.5 corners 77.4% 76.5% — — 1.31
Granada under 5.5 corners 65.7% 66.7% — — 1.50
Granada over 3.5 corners 64.9% 62.3% — — 1.61
Granada under 4.5 corners 51.2% 52.6% — — 1.90
Granada over 4.5 corners 48.8% 47.4% — — 2.11
Granada under 3.5 corners 35.1% 37.7% — — 2.65
Granada over 5.5 corners 34.3% 33.3% — — 3.01
Granada over 6.5 corners 22.6% 23.5% — — 4.26
Granada under 2.5 corners 19.9% 19.1% — — 5.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada under 3.5 goals 89.6% 87.3% 93.7% 0.93× 1.15
Granada over 0.5 goals 83.0% 82.2% 77.6% 1.06× 1.22
Granada under 2.5 goals 73.8% 74.3% 82.8% 0.90× 1.35
Granada over 1.5 goals 52.9% 53.2% 42.0% 1.27× 1.88
Granada under 1.5 goals 47.1% 46.8% 58.0% 0.81× 2.14
Granada over 2.5 goals 26.2% 25.7% 17.2% 1.50× 3.88
Granada under 0.5 goals 17.0% 17.8% 22.4% 0.79× 5.62
Granada over 3.5 goals 10.4% 12.7% 6.3% 2.02× 7.86
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada under 1.5 in 1st half 82.2% 83.9% — — 1.19
Granada over 0.5 in 1st half 53.3% 50.5% — — 1.98
Granada under 0.5 in 1st half 46.7% 49.5% — — 2.02
Granada over 1.5 in 1st half 17.8% 16.1% — — 6.22
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada scores more in 2nd half 40.4% 42.2% — — 2.37
Granada scores equally in both 32.8% 33.2% — — 3.01
Granada scores more in 1st half 26.8% 27.7% — — 3.61
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Girona (home no bet) 62.2% 60.0% 51.4% 1.17× 1.67
Draw (home no bet) 37.8% 40.0% 48.6% 0.82× 2.50
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada even goals 51.4% 50.7% 51.7% 0.98× 1.97
Granada odd goals 48.6% 49.3% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 24.1% 24.4% — — 4.10
HT 1-0 18.4% 18.6% — — 5.36
HT 0-1 15.9% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 1-1 12.1% 11.0% — — 9.12
HT 2-0 7.0% 6.9% — — 14.48
Any other HT score 7.0% 6.9% — — 14.48
HT 0-2 5.2% 6.9% — — 14.50
HT 2-1 4.6% 2.4% — — 41.99
HT 1-2 4.0% 2.4% — — 42.04
HT 2-2 1.5% 2.4% — — 42.20
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada at HT / Granada at FT 25.2% 27.3% — — 3.67
Girona at HT / Girona at FT 20.1% 21.6% — — 4.64
Draw at HT / Granada at FT 13.4% 12.7% — — 7.90
Draw at HT / Girona at FT 13.0% 12.7% — — 7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 11.4% 12.6% — — 7.91
Granada at HT / Draw at FT 5.7% 6.0% — — 16.66
Girona at HT / Draw at FT 5.0% 3.5% — — 28.61
Granada at HT / Girona at FT 3.3% 3.5% — — 28.67
Girona at HT / Granada at FT 3.0% 3.5% — — 28.68
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada to score last 50.3% 52.0% — — 1.92
Girona to score last 46.7% 46.5% — — 2.15
No goal scored 3.1% 4.3% — — 23.46
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 97.0% 95.7% — — 1.05
Granada to lead by 1 at any time 60.8% 61.3% — — 1.63
Girona to lead by 1 at any time 56.5% 54.9% — — 1.82
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 55.8% 54.8% — — 1.82
Granada to lead by 2 at any time 30.2% 29.8% — — 3.36
Girona to lead by 2 at any time 26.1% 25.5% — — 3.93
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 22.5% 19.6% — — 5.09
Granada to lead by 3 at any time 12.5% 10.5% — — 9.56
Girona to lead by 3 at any time 10.0% 6.8% — — 14.80
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada most corners 51.3% 51.7% — — 1.94
Girona most corners 36.9% 39.3% — — 2.55
Corners level 11.8% 10.4% — — 9.58
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 83.8% 83.4% 85.8% 0.97× 1.20
2-6 goals 79.4% 78.7% 67.9% 1.16× 1.27
2-5 goals 72.1% 72.4% 64.4% 1.12× 1.38
1-4 goals 71.0% 72.4% 78.1% 0.93× 1.38
3-6 goals 60.5% 63.3% 47.7% 1.33× 1.58
2-4 goals 59.4% 59.1% 56.6% 1.04× 1.69
3-5 goals 53.2% 53.2% 44.1% 1.20× 1.88
1-3 goals 52.4% 53.2% 62.8% 0.85× 1.88
2-3 goals 40.7% 43.6% 41.3% 1.06× 2.30
3-4 goals 40.5% 43.6% 36.4% 1.20× 2.30
4-6 goals 38.7% 39.2% 26.7% 1.47× 2.55
4-5 goals 31.4% 35.2% 23.2% 1.52× 2.84
1-2 goals 30.5% 35.2% 41.8% 0.84× 2.84
5-6 goals 20.0% 24.5% 11.4% 2.14× 4.09
7+ goals 5.9% 8.9% 1.6% 5.64× 11.28
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada never behind 40.5% 48.4% — — 2.07
Girona never behind 36.2% 44.0% — — 2.28
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.6% 50.9% 48.5% 1.05× 1.96
Odd number of goals 50.4% 49.1% 51.5% 0.95× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 52.8% 51.6% — — 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 47.2% 48.4% — — 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 50.8% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.2% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 97.0% 95.4% 90.9% 1.05× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 86.8% 87.6% 94.9% 0.92× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 85.3% 87.6% 69.4% 1.26× 1.14
Under 4.5 goals 74.1% 72.5% 87.1% 0.83× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 66.4% 66.3% 49.2% 1.35× 1.51
Under 3.5 goals 55.4% 58.6% 71.8% 0.82× 1.71
Over 3.5 goals 44.6% 41.4% 28.2% 1.47× 2.42
Under 2.5 goals 33.6% 33.7% 50.8% 0.66× 2.97
Over 4.5 goals 25.9% 27.5% 12.9% 2.14× 3.63
Under 1.5 goals 14.7% 12.4% 30.6% 0.41× 8.06
Over 5.5 goals 13.2% 12.4% 5.1% 2.42× 8.06
Under 0.5 goals 3.1% 4.6% 9.1% 0.50× 21.87
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 93.6% 92.4% 98.4% 0.94× 1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 84.9% 81.1% 94.4% 0.86× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 81.9% 81.1% 61.6% 1.32× 1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 68.1% 67.5% 84.8% 0.80× 1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 57.0% 55.8% 35.7% 1.56× 1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 43.0% 44.2% 64.3% 0.69× 2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 31.9% 32.5% 15.2% 2.14× 3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 18.1% 18.9% 38.4% 0.49× 5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 15.1% 18.9% 5.6% 3.39× 5.30
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 6.4% 7.6% 1.6% 4.66× 13.16
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 82.8% 85.8% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half 75.9% 78.3% — — 1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half 58.5% 63.8% — — 1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half 41.5% 36.2% — — 2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half 24.1% 21.7% — — 4.61
Over 2.5 in 1st half 17.2% 14.2% — — 7.04
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 86.5% 85.4% — — 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 67.7% 68.8% — — 1.45
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 59.3% 54.9% — — 1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 40.7% 45.1% — — 2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 32.3% 31.2% — — 3.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 13.5% 14.6% — — 6.87
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Girona not to score in both halves 69.7% 70.0% — — 1.43
Granada not to score in both halves 66.1% 69.8% — — 1.43
Granada to score in both halves 33.9% 30.2% — — 3.31
Girona to score in both halves 30.3% 30.0% — — 3.34
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 66.8% 59.9% 54.1% 1.11× 1.67
Only Granada scores 16.2% 16.0% 23.6% 0.68× 6.24
Only Girona scores 13.9% 11.0% 13.4% 0.82× 9.06
Neither team scores 3.1% 4.6% 9.1% 0.50× 21.73
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 21.8% 22.6% 21.1% 1.07× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 18.9% 17.5% 20.3% 0.86× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 18.7% 17.5% 15.4% 1.13× 5.73
6 or more goals 13.2% 12.1% 5.1% 2.36× 8.25
Exactly 5 goals 12.8% 12.1% 7.9% 1.54× 8.25
Exactly 1 goals 11.6% 12.1% 21.6% 0.56× 8.25
Exactly 0 goals 3.1% 4.5% 9.1% 0.49× 22.39
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 34.4% 35.8% — — 2.79
2 goals in 1st half 24.3% 21.5% — — 4.65
No goals in 1st half 24.1% 21.5% — — 4.65
3+ goals in 1st half 17.2% 15.6% — — 6.39
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 59.3% 54.3% — — 1.84
1 goal in 2nd half 27.2% 29.2% — — 3.43
No goals in 2nd half 13.5% 14.4% — — 6.96
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Girona not to win both halves 90.5% 94.1% — — 1.06
Granada not to win both halves 88.0% 88.0% — — 1.14
Granada to win both halves 12.0% 12.0% — — 8.32
Girona to win both halves 9.5% 5.9% — — 16.84
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada to win either half 57.4% 59.1% — — 1.69
Girona to win either half 52.6% 54.3% — — 1.84
Girona to win neither half 47.4% 45.7% — — 2.19
Granada to win neither half 42.6% 40.9% — — 2.45
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Girona not to win to nil 86.1% 88.1% 86.6% 1.02× 1.14
Granada not to win to nil 83.8% 83.1% 76.4% 1.09× 1.20
Granada to win to nil 16.2% 16.9% 23.6% 0.72× 5.92
Girona to win to nil 13.9% 11.9% 13.4% 0.89× 8.40
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 22.1% 24.1% 26.5% 0.91× 4.15
Granada by 1 19.8% 17.1% 26.0% 0.66× 5.86
Girona by 1 18.4% 17.0% 17.9% 0.95× 5.87
Granada by 2 12.4% 11.8% 12.1% 0.98× 8.51
Girona by 2 10.7% 11.8% 7.1% 1.65× 8.51
Granada by 3+ 9.4% 7.2% 7.7% 0.94× 13.90
Girona by 3+ 7.3% 7.2% 3.2% 2.21× 13.91
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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