Greenock Morton v Livingston — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · SCO-Championship · 2627

SCO-Championship results-only Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 19:28 UTC

Greenock Morton

1–4

18:30 UTC

Livingston

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 11 Sep, 11:38 · 7h before kick-off

Greenock Morton win

31.3%

model 31.2%

Draw

37.4%

model 35.8%

Livingston win

31.3%

model 33.0%

313731

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (7,703 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 16.2%
0-0 15.6%
0-1 10.8%
1-0 10.3%
1-2 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	33.6%	Under 2.5	66.4%
BTTS yes	43.7%	BTTS no	56.3%
Greenock Morton 1+	63.4%	Greenock Morton 2+	26.6%
Livingston 1+	64.7%	Livingston 2+	27.9%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.04. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

26/100

Data quality

30/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Livingston (DNB)

Draw no bet · usually 41%

51.7% fair odds 1.94

strong signal · 3822 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Greenock Morton not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 78%

83.0% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 12208 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Greenock Morton carry the stronger rating, 1486 Elo against 1308.
At home Greenock Morton average 1.35 xG a match.

Risk factors

Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Greenock Morton have only 1 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

The draw is the single most likely outcome at 37.4%, with Greenock Morton at 31.3% and Livingston at 31.3%. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.00 for Greenock Morton and 1.04 for Livingston.

Why Greenock Morton

Greenock Morton carry the stronger rating, 1486 Elo against 1308. At home Greenock Morton average 1.35 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 37.4%. A combined 2.05 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.00 to 1.04.

Why Livingston can win

Nothing in the data singles out Livingston.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Greenock Morton, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Livingston, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Greenock Morton: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Livingston: 50% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

A draw is the model's most likely outcome at 37.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 16.2%. Confidence 26/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	313633	1.01–1.04	0%	0%	0%	Draw ✗
ai-blend-oos	333532	1.07–1.05	0%	0%	0%	Draw ✗
dc-xg	263737	0.82–1.04	0-0 18%	29%	39%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	37.2%	36.2%	33.8%	1.07×	2.76
Livingston to win	37.2%	36.2%	27.1%	1.34×	2.76
Greenock Morton to win	25.6%	27.7%	39.6%	0.70×	3.61

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston & not both score	25.7%	25.4%	18.4%	1.39×	3.93
Draw & both teams score	19.1%	18.0%	20.8%	0.87×	5.55
Draw & not both score	18.1%	18.0%	13.5%	1.33×	5.55
Greenock Morton & not both score	17.2%	18.0%	22.2%	0.81×	5.55
Livingston & both teams score	11.5%	13.3%	9.2%	1.44×	7.55
Greenock Morton & both teams score	8.4%	8.4%	17.9%	0.47×	11.96

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw & under 2.5	34.1%	31.1%	28.5%	1.09×	3.22
Draw & under 3.5	34.1%	31.1%	28.5%	1.09×	3.22
Livingston & under 3.5	31.7%	31.0%	22.2%	1.40×	3.22
Livingston & over 1.5	23.8%	21.6%	18.8%	1.15×	4.63
Greenock Morton & under 3.5	22.3%	21.6%	28.0%	0.77×	4.63
Livingston & under 2.5	21.9%	21.6%	14.5%	1.49×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.1%	18.0%	20.8%	0.86×	5.57
Draw & under 1.5	18.1%	18.0%	13.5%	1.33×	5.57
Greenock Morton & over 1.5	15.4%	18.0%	31.4%	0.57×	5.57
Greenock Morton & under 2.5	15.4%	18.0%	16.4%	1.09×	5.57
Livingston & over 2.5	15.4%	18.0%	13.0%	1.38×	5.57
Livingston & under 1.5	13.5%	12.9%	8.7%	1.48×	7.78
Greenock Morton & under 1.5	10.1%	12.9%	8.7%	1.48×	7.78
Greenock Morton & over 2.5	10.2%	12.9%	23.7%	0.54×	7.78
Livingston & over 3.5	5.5%	8.0%	5.3%	1.50×	12.57
Greenock Morton & over 3.5	3.3%	4.9%	12.1%	0.40×	20.58
Draw & over 2.5	3.1%	4.9%	5.8%	0.84×	20.58
Draw & over 3.5	3.1%	4.9%	5.8%	0.84×	20.58

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston (1UP)	50.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Greenock Morton (1UP)	39.4%	34.6%	—	—	2.89

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston (2UP)	37.2%	37.1%	—	—	2.69
Greenock Morton (2UP)	25.6%	24.7%	—	—	4.05

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	45.9%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
Livingston to win 2nd half	32.1%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Greenock Morton to win 2nd half	22.0%	23.1%	—	—	4.34

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.0%	86.7%	—	—	1.15
Livingston under 0.5 in 2nd half	53.5%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Livingston over 0.5 in 2nd half	46.5%	46.6%	—	—	2.14
Livingston over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.0%	13.3%	—	—	7.49

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Greenock Morton under 1.5 in 2nd half	91.9%	93.7%	—	—	1.07
Greenock Morton under 0.5 in 2nd half	62.5%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Greenock Morton over 0.5 in 2nd half	37.5%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Greenock Morton over 1.5 in 2nd half	8.1%	6.3%	—	—	15.87

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston (+2.5)	97.8%	96.3%	92.3%	1.04×	1.04
Livingston (+1.5)	90.9%	92.1%	80.2%	1.15×	1.09
Livingston (+0.5)	74.4%	73.7%	60.4%	1.22×	1.36
Greenock Morton (+0.5)	62.8%	63.1%	72.9%	0.86×	1.59
Livingston (-0.5)	37.2%	37.0%	27.1%	1.37×	2.71
Greenock Morton (-0.5)	25.6%	26.3%	39.6%	0.66×	3.80
Greenock Morton (-1.5)	9.1%	7.9%	19.8%	0.40×	12.68
Greenock Morton (-2.5)	2.2%	3.7%	7.7%	0.48×	26.91

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston to concede	56.1%	62.0%	68.6%	0.90×	1.61
Livingston clean sheet	43.9%	38.0%	31.4%	1.21×	2.63

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston clean sheet in 1st half	70.2%	77.0%	—	—	1.30
Livingston to concede in 1st half	29.8%	23.0%	—	—	4.35

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston clean sheet in 2nd half	62.5%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Livingston to concede in 2nd half	37.5%	39.8%	—	—	2.52

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston under 3.5 goals	97.8%	97.4%	96.6%	1.01×	1.03
Livingston under 2.5 goals	91.2%	92.2%	91.8%	1.00×	1.09
Livingston under 1.5 goals	72.1%	71.9%	71.5%	1.01×	1.39
Livingston over 0.5 goals	64.7%	63.5%	64.7%	0.98×	1.58
Livingston under 0.5 goals	35.3%	36.5%	35.3%	1.04×	2.74
Livingston over 1.5 goals	27.9%	28.1%	28.5%	0.99×	3.56
Livingston over 2.5 goals	8.8%	7.8%	8.2%	0.95×	12.81
Livingston over 3.5 goals	2.2%	2.6%	3.4%	0.76×	38.88

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston under 1.5 in 1st half	93.4%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Livingston under 0.5 in 1st half	65.9%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Livingston over 0.5 in 1st half	34.1%	31.6%	—	—	3.17
Livingston over 1.5 in 1st half	6.6%	5.8%	—	—	17.28

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston scores equally in both	45.1%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Livingston scores more in 2nd half	34.4%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Livingston scores more in 1st half	20.5%	22.4%	—	—	4.47

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	59.3%	57.4%	46.1%	1.25×	1.74
Greenock Morton (away no bet)	40.7%	42.6%	53.9%	0.79×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston even goals	56.2%	56.9%	58.0%	0.98×	1.76
Livingston odd goals	43.8%	43.1%	42.0%	1.03×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	94.6%	93.1%	—	—	1.07
Both halves over 1.5 goals	5.4%	6.9%	—	—	14.56

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	56.1%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Not both halves under 1.5	43.9%	40.0%	—	—	2.50

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	37.0%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Livingston to score 2+ in a row	23.4%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Greenock Morton to score 2+ in a row	15.8%	16.3%	—	—	6.15
Either team to score 3+ in a row	9.6%	5.7%	—	—	17.56
Livingston to score 3+ in a row	6.3%	5.6%	—	—	17.82
Greenock Morton to score 3+ in a row	3.3%	2.6%	—	—	38.58

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-0	18.1%	13.6%	13.5%	1.00×	7.36
1-1	15.9%	13.6%	15.5%	0.88×	7.37
0-1	13.5%	11.4%	8.7%	1.31×	8.80
1-0	10.1%	11.4%	8.7%	1.31×	8.80
0-2	8.4%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.53
1-2	6.9%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.53
2-0	5.3%	7.4%	8.2%	0.90×	13.53
2-1	5.5%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.53
0-3	2.9%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	57.66
0-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	57.68
1-3	2.4%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	57.67
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.5%	3.59×	57.68
2-2	2.8%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	57.66
2-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	57.67
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	57.68
3-0	1.4%	1.7%	3.9%	0.45×	57.67
3-1	1.5%	1.7%	3.9%	0.45×	57.67
3-2	0.8%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	57.68
3-3	0.3%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	57.68
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.59×	57.68
4-0	0.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	57.68
4-1	0.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	57.68
4-2	0.2%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	57.68
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	57.68
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.5%	3.59×	57.68
Any other score	0.6%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	57.68

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston (2nd half DNB)	59.4%	60.8%	—	—	1.65
Greenock Morton (2nd half DNB)	40.6%	39.2%	—	—	2.55

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston leading at HT (DNB)	54.9%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Greenock Morton leading at HT (DNB)	45.1%	43.7%	—	—	2.29

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston or draw (X2)	74.4%	72.3%	60.4%	1.20×	1.38
Greenock Morton or draw (1X)	62.8%	63.8%	72.9%	0.87×	1.57
Greenock Morton or Livingston (12)	62.8%	63.8%	66.2%	0.96×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston or draw at HT	79.4%	80.1%	—	—	1.25
Greenock Morton or draw at HT	74.9%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Greenock Morton or Livingston at HT	45.7%	51.9%	—	—	1.93

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston or draw (1UP)	74.4%	80.3%	—	—	1.25
Greenock Morton or draw (1UP)	62.8%	71.8%	—	—	1.39

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston or draw in 2nd half	78.0%	76.9%	—	—	1.30
Greenock Morton or draw in 2nd half	67.9%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Greenock Morton or Livingston in 2nd half	54.1%	54.7%	—	—	1.83

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	72.6%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Neither half drawn	27.4%	29.9%	—	—	3.34

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston (DNB)	59.3%	58.4%	40.6%	1.44×	1.71
Greenock Morton (DNB)	40.7%	41.7%	59.4%	0.70×	2.40

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston to score first	45.7%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Greenock Morton to score first	36.2%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	18.1%	18.3%	—	—	5.47

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	61.0%	56.5%	53.1%	1.06×	1.77
Both teams to score	39.0%	43.5%	46.9%	0.93×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	55.4%	46.8%	43.5%	1.08×	2.14
Both score & over 2.5	23.0%	28.4%	31.9%	0.89×	3.52
Both score & under 2.5	15.9%	21.3%	15.5%	1.38×	4.69
Not both score & over 2.5	5.7%	8.4%	10.1%	0.82×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	94.4%	88.9%	87.9%	1.01×	1.13
Both teams to score 2+	5.6%	11.1%	12.1%	0.92×	9.02

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	81.7%	73.3%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	18.3%	26.7%	—	—	3.75

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	72.8%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Both score 2nd half only	16.6%	15.6%	—	—	6.40
Both score 1st half only	8.8%	6.8%	—	—	14.69
Both score in both halves	1.8%	4.9%	—	—	20.40

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	89.4%	86.6%	—	—	1.16
Both teams to score by HT	10.6%	13.4%	—	—	7.45

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	63.0%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
A goal in each half	37.0%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.3%	46.9%	48.3%	0.97×	2.13
0-1 goals	41.7%	41.9%	30.0%	1.40×	2.39
4-6 goals	11.6%	17.1%	21.7%	0.79×	5.84
7+ goals	0.3%	1.8%	1.0%	1.91×	54.17

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.8%	36.7%	0.97×	2.80
Livingston to score exactly 0	35.3%	35.8%	35.3%	1.01×	2.80
Livingston to score exactly 2	19.1%	19.5%	20.8%	0.94×	5.12
Livingston to score 3+	8.8%	8.8%	8.2%	1.07×	11.42

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Greenock Morton to score exactly 0	43.9%	35.6%	31.4%	1.13×	2.81
Greenock Morton to score exactly 1	36.1%	35.5%	30.4%	1.17×	2.82
Greenock Morton to score exactly 2	14.9%	14.3%	23.2%	0.62×	6.99
Greenock Morton to score 3+	5.1%	10.4%	15.9%	0.65×	9.59

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	54.3%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Livingston leading at HT	25.1%	25.6%	—	—	3.90
Greenock Morton leading at HT	20.6%	19.9%	—	—	5.02

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston -1: 1	62.8%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Livingston -1: X	21.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.23
Livingston -1: 2	15.8%	17.2%	—	—	5.80

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston (0:1)	74.4%	71.1%	60.4%	1.18×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	16.4%	17.7%	20.3%	0.87×	5.64
Greenock Morton (0:1)	9.1%	9.1%	19.8%	0.46×	10.93

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston (0:2)	90.9%	90.9%	80.2%	1.13×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	6.9%	7.7%	12.6%	0.61×	13.01
Greenock Morton (0:2)	2.2%	3.8%	7.7%	0.49×	26.53

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston (0:3)	97.8%	96.6%	92.3%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	1.8%	2.4%	4.8%	0.49×	42.38
Greenock Morton (0:3)	0.4%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.44

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston (0:4)	99.6%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	1.9%	0.63×	81.79
Greenock Morton (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	1.9%	0.63×	81.82

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Greenock Morton (1:0)	62.8%	65.3%	72.9%	0.90×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	21.4%	21.7%	15.5%	1.41×	4.60
Livingston (1:0)	15.8%	17.1%	12.1%	1.41×	5.86

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Greenock Morton (2:0)	84.2%	84.6%	87.9%	0.96×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	11.1%	10.4%	8.2%	1.27×	9.63
Livingston (2:0)	4.7%	2.4%	4.3%	0.56×	41.31

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	40.7%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Halves equal	35.5%	35.5%	—	—	2.82
1st half highest scoring	23.8%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Greenock Morton to concede	64.7%	64.0%	64.7%	0.99×	1.56
Greenock Morton clean sheet	35.3%	36.0%	35.3%	1.02×	2.78

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Greenock Morton clean sheet in 1st half	65.9%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Greenock Morton to concede in 1st half	34.1%	31.3%	—	—	3.19

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Greenock Morton clean sheet in 2nd half	53.5%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Greenock Morton to concede in 2nd half	46.5%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Greenock Morton under 3.5 goals	99.0%	96.3%	94.2%	1.02×	1.04
Greenock Morton under 2.5 goals	94.9%	92.1%	84.1%	1.10×	1.09
Greenock Morton under 1.5 goals	80.0%	81.9%	61.4%	1.34×	1.22
Greenock Morton over 0.5 goals	56.1%	58.6%	68.6%	0.85×	1.71
Greenock Morton under 0.5 goals	43.9%	41.4%	31.4%	1.32×	2.41
Greenock Morton over 1.5 goals	20.0%	18.1%	38.6%	0.47×	5.53
Greenock Morton over 2.5 goals	5.1%	7.9%	15.9%	0.49×	12.72
Greenock Morton over 3.5 goals	1.0%	3.7%	5.8%	0.64×	27.08

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Greenock Morton under 1.5 in 1st half	95.0%	96.7%	—	—	1.03
Greenock Morton under 0.5 in 1st half	70.2%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Greenock Morton over 0.5 in 1st half	29.8%	20.4%	—	—	4.89
Greenock Morton over 1.5 in 1st half	5.0%	3.3%	—	—	30.10

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Greenock Morton scores equally in both	51.5%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Greenock Morton scores more in 2nd half	28.4%	28.0%	—	—	3.57
Greenock Morton scores more in 1st half	20.2%	21.5%	—	—	4.66

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	50.0%	51.5%	55.6%	0.93×	1.94
Livingston (home no bet)	50.0%	48.5%	44.4%	1.09×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Greenock Morton even goals	59.6%	55.4%	58.0%	0.96×	1.81
Greenock Morton odd goals	40.4%	44.6%	42.0%	1.06×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	46.7%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
HT 0-1	18.8%	18.7%	—	—	5.36
HT 1-0	15.9%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 1-1	7.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.02
HT 0-2	4.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.41
HT 2-0	2.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.49
HT 1-2	1.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.60
Any other HT score	1.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.60
HT 2-1	1.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.62
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.69

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	27.5%	27.0%	—	—	3.71
Livingston at HT / Livingston at FT	19.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Livingston at FT	16.0%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Greenock Morton at HT / Greenock Morton at FT	13.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Greenock Morton at FT	10.7%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Greenock Morton at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.73
Livingston at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.74
Greenock Morton at HT / Livingston at FT	1.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
Livingston at HT / Greenock Morton at FT	1.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.88

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston to score last	45.8%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Greenock Morton to score last	36.0%	38.4%	—	—	2.60
No goal scored	18.1%	13.0%	—	—	7.70

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	81.9%	87.1%	—	—	1.15
Livingston to lead by 1 at any time	50.1%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Greenock Morton to lead by 1 at any time	39.4%	34.9%	—	—	2.86
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	31.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Livingston to lead by 2 at any time	19.3%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Greenock Morton to lead by 2 at any time	12.1%	10.5%	—	—	9.56
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	8.3%	6.6%	—	—	15.06
Livingston to lead by 3 at any time	5.6%	6.6%	—	—	15.19
Greenock Morton to lead by 3 at any time	2.8%	1.6%	—	—	61.65

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	80.6%	83.3%	82.6%	1.01×	1.20
1-4 goals	77.7%	78.5%	76.3%	1.03×	1.27
1-3 goals	69.9%	68.9%	64.7%	1.06×	1.45
2-6 goals	58.0%	59.3%	69.6%	0.85×	1.69
2-5 goals	57.1%	59.3%	66.2%	0.90×	1.69
2-4 goals	54.2%	53.4%	59.9%	0.89×	1.87
1-2 goals	53.2%	53.4%	45.4%	1.18×	1.87
2-3 goals	46.3%	48.5%	48.3%	1.00×	2.06
3-6 goals	28.4%	30.6%	41.1%	0.75×	3.27
3-5 goals	27.5%	30.6%	37.7%	0.81×	3.27
3-4 goals	24.6%	24.8%	31.4%	0.79×	4.03
4-6 goals	11.6%	15.0%	21.7%	0.69×	6.65
4-5 goals	10.7%	15.0%	18.4%	0.82×	6.66
5-6 goals	3.8%	2.6%	10.1%	0.25×	38.90
7+ goals	0.3%	2.6%	1.0%	2.65×	39.05

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Livingston never behind	42.5%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
Greenock Morton never behind	31.8%	35.5%	—	—	2.82

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	43.5%	50.2%	43.0%	1.17×	1.99
Even number of goals	56.5%	49.8%	57.0%	0.87×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	61.6%	58.3%	—	—	1.72
Odd goals in 1st half	38.4%	41.7%	—	—	2.40

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	57.4%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Odd goals in 2nd half	42.6%	40.1%	—	—	2.50

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.8%	95.4%	95.7%	1.00×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	95.9%	95.4%	89.4%	1.07×	1.05
Under 3.5 goals	88.1%	87.5%	77.8%	1.12×	1.14
Over 0.5 goals	81.9%	82.2%	86.5%	0.95×	1.22
Under 2.5 goals	71.3%	72.4%	58.5%	1.24×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	58.3%	58.5%	70.0%	0.83×	1.71
Under 1.5 goals	41.7%	41.5%	30.0%	1.39×	2.41
Over 2.5 goals	28.7%	27.6%	41.5%	0.66×	3.62
Under 0.5 goals	18.1%	17.8%	13.5%	1.32×	5.61
Over 3.5 goals	11.9%	12.5%	22.2%	0.56×	7.97
Over 4.5 goals	4.1%	4.6%	10.6%	0.43×	21.75
Over 5.5 goals	1.2%	4.6%	4.3%	1.06×	21.79

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.7%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.7%	97.2%	95.4%	1.02×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	95.5%	97.2%	88.0%	1.10×	1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	85.7%	86.6%	72.5%	1.20×	1.16
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	59.3%	55.2%	41.9%	1.32×	1.81
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	40.7%	44.8%	58.1%	0.77×	2.23
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	14.3%	13.4%	27.5%	0.49×	7.47
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	4.5%	2.9%	12.0%	0.24×	35.08
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	1.3%	2.8%	4.6%	0.61×	35.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.3%	2.8%	1.0%	2.84×	35.19

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	95.7%	96.4%	—	—	1.04
Under 1.5 in 1st half	81.5%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	53.3%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half	46.7%	43.3%	—	—	2.31
Over 1.5 in 1st half	18.5%	13.8%	—	—	7.25
Over 2.5 in 1st half	4.3%	3.6%	—	—	27.71

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	90.2%	88.6%	—	—	1.13
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.2%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	65.6%	67.4%	—	—	1.48
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	34.4%	32.6%	—	—	3.07
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.8%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	9.8%	11.4%	—	—	8.75

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Greenock Morton not to score in both halves	88.8%	85.9%	—	—	1.16
Livingston not to score in both halves	84.2%	84.4%	—	—	1.18
Livingston to score in both halves	15.8%	15.6%	—	—	6.43
Greenock Morton to score in both halves	11.2%	14.1%	—	—	7.10

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	39.0%	39.8%	46.9%	0.85×	2.51
Only Livingston scores	25.7%	26.1%	18.4%	1.42×	3.83
Neither team scores	18.1%	16.0%	13.5%	1.18×	6.25
Only Greenock Morton scores	17.2%	16.0%	22.2%	0.72×	6.25

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	29.6%	24.7%	29.0%	0.85×	4.05
Exactly 1 goals	23.6%	22.4%	16.9%	1.33×	4.46
Exactly 0 goals	18.1%	17.6%	13.5%	1.30×	5.70
Exactly 3 goals	16.7%	17.5%	19.8%	0.89×	5.70
Exactly 4 goals	7.8%	7.8%	12.1%	0.64×	12.86
Exactly 5 goals	2.9%	4.5%	6.8%	0.66×	22.24
6 or more goals	1.2%	4.5%	4.3%	1.03×	22.27

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	46.7%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
1 goal in 1st half	34.7%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
2 goals in 1st half	14.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
3+ goals in 1st half	4.3%	3.6%	—	—	27.71

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	34.8%	33.4%	—	—	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	34.4%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
2+ goals in 2nd half	30.8%	33.3%	—	—	3.01

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Greenock Morton not to win both halves	95.2%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Livingston not to win both halves	91.5%	93.9%	—	—	1.06
Livingston to win both halves	8.5%	6.1%	—	—	16.52
Greenock Morton to win both halves	4.8%	2.8%	—	—	35.21

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Greenock Morton to win neither half	62.2%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Livingston to win neither half	51.2%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Livingston to win either half	48.8%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Greenock Morton to win either half	37.8%	35.0%	—	—	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Greenock Morton not to win to nil	82.8%	83.2%	77.8%	1.07×	1.20
Livingston not to win to nil	74.3%	75.2%	81.6%	0.92×	1.33
Livingston to win to nil	25.7%	24.8%	18.4%	1.35×	4.03
Greenock Morton to win to nil	17.2%	16.8%	22.2%	0.76×	5.94

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	37.2%	34.6%	33.8%	1.02×	2.89
Livingston by 1	21.4%	24.2%	15.5%	1.56×	4.14
Greenock Morton by 1	16.4%	16.9%	20.3%	0.83×	5.92
Livingston by 2	11.1%	11.7%	8.2%	1.43×	8.53
Greenock Morton by 2	6.9%	7.3%	12.6%	0.58×	13.77
Livingston by 3+	4.7%	2.8%	4.3%	0.65×	35.55
Greenock Morton by 3+	2.2%	2.8%	7.7%	0.36×	35.62

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.