Grêmio v Vasco da Gama — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Grêmio

19:00 UTC

Vasco da Gama

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 107h before kick-off

Grêmio win

47.1%

model 45.6%

Draw

26.5%

model 27.5%

Vasco da Gama win

26.5%

model 26.9%

472626

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (476 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.1%
1-0 9.5%
2-1 9.3%
2-0 8.2%
0-0 8.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	50.2%	Under 2.5	49.8%
BTTS yes	54.5%	BTTS no	45.5%
Grêmio 1+	78.6%	Grêmio 2+	45.7%
Vasco da Gama 1+	67.9%	Vasco da Gama 2+	31.4%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.14. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

83/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Both teams score

Teams to score · usually 52%

54.5% fair odds 1.84

moderate signal · 7744 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time

82.7% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1599 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Grêmio carry the stronger rating, 1468 Elo against 1436.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Grêmio have an estimated 47.1% win probability, against 26.5% for the draw and 26.5% for Vasco da Gama. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.54 for Grêmio and 1.14 for Vasco da Gama.

Why Grêmio

Grêmio carry the stronger rating, 1468 Elo against 1436.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Vasco da Gama can win

They have had 14 days' rest to Grêmio's 5.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Grêmio, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Vasco da Gama, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Grêmio: 49% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 20.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Vasco da Gama: 50% possession, 17.2 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Grêmio are the model's most likely outcome at 47.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%. Confidence 83/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	462827	1.54–1.14	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	502723	1.62–1.04	1-1 13%	50%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio to win	45.6%	47.8%	49.0%	0.98×	2.09
Draw	27.5%	27.3%	27.2%	1.00×	3.66
Vasco da Gama to win	26.9%	27.3%	24.0%	1.14×	3.66

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio & not both score	24.1%	21.5%	28.1%	0.76×	4.65
Grêmio & both teams score	21.5%	21.5%	21.0%	1.02×	4.65
Draw & both teams score	19.6%	18.2%	20.7%	0.88×	5.49
Vasco da Gama & both teams score	13.5%	12.6%	10.3%	1.22×	7.91
Vasco da Gama & not both score	13.4%	12.6%	13.8%	0.91×	7.91
Draw & not both score	8.0%	7.7%	6.7%	1.15×	13.04

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio & over 1.5	36.1%	36.6%	36.7%	1.00×	2.73
Grêmio & under 3.5	31.1%	31.8%	36.9%	0.86×	3.15
Grêmio & over 2.5	28.0%	26.5%	27.5%	0.96×	3.78
Draw & under 2.5	21.1%	21.8%	20.2%	1.08×	4.59
Draw & under 3.5	21.1%	21.8%	20.2%	1.08×	4.59
Vasco da Gama & over 1.5	20.2%	21.8%	17.2%	1.27×	4.59
Draw & over 1.5	19.6%	17.7%	20.7%	0.86×	5.66
Vasco da Gama & under 3.5	19.6%	17.7%	18.6%	0.95×	5.66
Grêmio & under 2.5	17.6%	17.7%	21.6%	0.82×	5.66
Vasco da Gama & over 2.5	15.8%	17.7%	13.2%	1.34×	5.66
Grêmio & over 3.5	14.5%	12.5%	12.2%	1.02×	8.03
Vasco da Gama & under 2.5	11.1%	12.5%	11.0%	1.14×	8.03
Grêmio & under 1.5	9.5%	7.6%	12.4%	0.61×	13.17
Draw & under 1.5	8.0%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.17
Draw & over 2.5	6.4%	7.6%	7.2%	1.06×	13.17
Draw & over 3.5	6.4%	7.6%	7.2%	1.06×	13.17
Vasco da Gama & under 1.5	6.7%	7.6%	7.0%	1.09×	13.17
Vasco da Gama & over 3.5	7.3%	7.6%	5.6%	1.36×	13.17

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio (1UP)	61.2%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Vasco da Gama (1UP)	44.9%	43.0%	—	—	2.32

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio (2UP)	45.6%	51.2%	—	—	1.95
Vasco da Gama (2UP)	26.9%	27.4%	—	—	3.66

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio to win 2nd half	37.5%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
2nd half drawn	36.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Vasco da Gama to win 2nd half	26.1%	29.6%	—	—	3.38

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (+2.5)	90.4%	92.3%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Vasco da Gama (+1.5)	76.3%	78.2%	76.8%	1.02×	1.28
Grêmio (+0.5)	73.1%	72.8%	76.0%	0.96×	1.37
Vasco da Gama (+0.5)	54.4%	52.0%	51.0%	1.02×	1.92
Grêmio (-0.5)	45.6%	48.0%	49.0%	0.98×	2.08
Vasco da Gama (-0.5)	26.9%	27.2%	24.0%	1.13×	3.68
Grêmio (-1.5)	23.7%	21.8%	23.2%	0.94×	4.60
Grêmio (-2.5)	9.6%	7.7%	9.2%	0.84×	12.95

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to concede	78.7%	78.6%	79.7%	0.99×	1.27
Vasco da Gama clean sheet	21.3%	21.4%	20.4%	1.05×	4.67

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama clean sheet in 1st half	51.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Vasco da Gama to concede in 1st half	48.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama over 2.5 corners	77.2%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Vasco da Gama under 6.5 corners	75.7%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Vasco da Gama under 5.5 corners	65.2%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Vasco da Gama over 3.5 corners	62.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Vasco da Gama under 4.5 corners	52.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Vasco da Gama over 4.5 corners	47.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Vasco da Gama under 3.5 corners	37.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Vasco da Gama over 5.5 corners	34.8%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Vasco da Gama over 6.5 corners	24.3%	24.1%	—	—	4.15
Vasco da Gama under 2.5 corners	22.8%	24.1%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama under 3.5 goals	97.1%	97.3%	97.9%	0.99×	1.03
Vasco da Gama under 2.5 goals	89.3%	87.2%	90.9%	0.96×	1.15
Vasco da Gama under 1.5 goals	68.6%	67.7%	72.0%	0.94×	1.48
Vasco da Gama over 0.5 goals	67.9%	67.7%	65.3%	1.04×	1.48
Vasco da Gama under 0.5 goals	32.1%	32.3%	34.7%	0.93×	3.09
Vasco da Gama over 1.5 goals	31.4%	32.3%	28.0%	1.16×	3.09
Vasco da Gama over 2.5 goals	10.7%	12.8%	9.1%	1.41×	7.81
Vasco da Gama over 3.5 goals	2.9%	2.7%	2.1%	1.29×	37.46

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama under 1.5 in 1st half	92.3%	93.6%	—	—	1.07
Vasco da Gama under 0.5 in 1st half	63.5%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Vasco da Gama over 0.5 in 1st half	36.5%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Vasco da Gama over 1.5 in 1st half	7.7%	6.4%	—	—	15.67

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio (away no bet)	62.4%	62.3%	64.3%	0.97×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	37.6%	37.7%	35.7%	1.06×	2.65

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama even goals	55.2%	56.5%	55.0%	1.03×	1.77
Vasco da Gama odd goals	44.9%	43.6%	45.0%	0.97×	2.30

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.8%	86.8%	—	—	1.15
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.2%	13.2%	—	—	7.59

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.4%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.6%	35.0%	—	—	2.86

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	55.0%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Grêmio to score 2+ in a row	37.7%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Vasco da Gama to score 2+ in a row	23.3%	21.2%	—	—	4.71
Either team to score 3+ in a row	19.3%	17.4%	—	—	5.75
Grêmio to score 3+ in a row	13.6%	12.8%	—	—	7.82
Vasco da Gama to score 3+ in a row	6.0%	7.8%	—	—	12.84

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama corners (+3.5)	84.6%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Grêmio corners (+3.5)	79.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Vasco da Gama corners (+2.5)	77.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Grêmio corners (+2.5)	71.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Vasco da Gama corners (+1.5)	69.1%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Grêmio corners (+1.5)	62.3%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Vasco da Gama corners (-1.5)	37.7%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Grêmio corners (-1.5)	30.9%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Vasco da Gama corners (-2.5)	28.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Grêmio corners (-2.5)	22.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Vasco da Gama corners (-3.5)	20.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Grêmio corners (-3.5)	15.4%	20.3%	—	—	4.94

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	47.4%	41.6%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	27.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	25.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	81.0%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	74.5%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	66.6%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	63.1%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	57.4%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	52.6%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	47.4%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	42.6%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	36.9%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	33.4%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	25.5%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Over 12.5 corners	19.0%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.1%	11.2%	13.7%	0.82×	8.90
0-0	8.0%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.48
0-1	6.7%	7.4%	7.0%	1.06×	13.49
1-0	9.5%	7.4%	12.4%	0.60×	13.48
1-2	6.8%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.49
2-0	8.2%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.48
2-1	9.3%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.48
2-2	5.3%	7.4%	5.6%	1.33×	13.49
0-2	4.4%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.10
0-3	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.11
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.55×	58.11
1-3	2.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.10
1-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.3%	5.41×	58.11
2-3	2.0%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.11
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.3%	5.41×	58.11
3-0	4.2%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.10
3-1	4.8%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.10
3-2	2.7%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.10
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.11
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	10.82×	58.11
4-0	1.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.55×	58.11
4-1	1.8%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.11
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	1.0%	1.80×	58.11
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	5.41×	58.11
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	10.82×	58.11
Any other score	2.7%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.10

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio leading at HT (DNB)	62.1%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Vasco da Gama leading at HT (DNB)	37.9%	37.1%	—	—	2.69

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio or draw (1X)	73.1%	72.7%	76.0%	0.96×	1.38
Grêmio or Vasco da Gama (12)	72.5%	72.7%	72.8%	1.00×	1.38
Vasco da Gama or draw (X2)	54.4%	52.2%	51.0%	1.02×	1.91

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio or draw at HT	78.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Vasco da Gama or draw at HT	65.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Grêmio or Vasco da Gama at HT	56.3%	57.2%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio or draw (1UP)	73.1%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Vasco da Gama or draw (1UP)	54.4%	60.4%	—	—	1.66

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio or draw in 2nd half	73.9%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Grêmio or Vasco da Gama in 2nd half	63.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Vasco da Gama or draw in 2nd half	62.5%	63.1%	—	—	1.58

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.9%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Neither half drawn	37.1%	39.9%	—	—	2.51

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio (DNB)	62.9%	61.7%	67.1%	0.92×	1.62
Vasco da Gama (DNB)	37.1%	38.3%	32.9%	1.16×	2.61

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio to score first	53.0%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Vasco da Gama to score first	39.0%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goal scored	8.0%	6.3%	—	—	15.85

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.5%	51.8%	51.7%	1.00×	1.93
Not both teams to score	45.5%	48.2%	48.3%	1.00×	2.08

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	41.4%	41.6%	38.2%	1.09×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	36.7%	38.0%	39.0%	0.98×	2.63
Both score & under 2.5	13.1%	11.9%	13.7%	0.87×	8.41
Not both score & over 2.5	8.8%	8.5%	9.5%	0.89×	11.81

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.6%	85.9%	87.3%	0.98×	1.16
Both teams to score 2+	14.4%	14.1%	12.7%	1.11×	7.10

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.7%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.3%	28.6%	—	—	3.49

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	57.9%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Both score 2nd half only	24.2%	23.3%	—	—	4.28
Both score 1st half only	12.8%	11.9%	—	—	8.39
Both score in both halves	5.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.14

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.1%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	17.9%	17.3%	—	—	5.77

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	53.8%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
A half without a goal	46.2%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.7%	46.6%	49.8%	0.94×	2.15
4-6 goals	26.2%	27.3%	24.2%	1.13×	3.66
0-1 goals	24.1%	23.3%	25.8%	0.90×	4.29
7+ goals	2.0%	2.0%	0.6%	3.13×	50.25

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to score exactly 1	36.5%	36.0%	37.5%	0.96×	2.78
Vasco da Gama to score exactly 0	32.1%	32.4%	34.7%	0.94×	3.08
Vasco da Gama to score exactly 2	20.7%	23.1%	19.1%	1.21×	4.33
Vasco da Gama to score 3+	10.7%	12.9%	9.1%	1.42×	7.75

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio to score exactly 1	33.0%	32.1%	34.3%	0.94×	3.12
Grêmio to score exactly 2	25.5%	26.4%	27.2%	0.97×	3.79
Grêmio to score exactly 0	21.3%	22.9%	20.4%	1.12×	4.37
Grêmio to score 3+	20.2%	22.9%	18.4%	1.24×	4.37

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.7%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Grêmio leading at HT	34.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Vasco da Gama leading at HT	21.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio -1: 2	54.4%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Grêmio -1: 1	23.7%	23.2%	—	—	4.30
Grêmio -1: X	21.9%	23.2%	—	—	4.30

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (0:1)	54.4%	52.1%	51.0%	1.02×	1.92
Grêmio (0:1)	23.7%	23.5%	23.2%	1.01×	4.25
Draw (0:1)	21.9%	23.5%	25.9%	0.91×	4.25

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (0:2)	76.3%	79.3%	76.8%	1.03×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	14.1%	11.4%	14.1%	0.80×	8.78
Grêmio (0:2)	9.6%	7.7%	9.2%	0.84×	12.94

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (0:3)	90.4%	92.6%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	6.4%	6.4%	6.7%	0.96×	15.57
Grêmio (0:3)	3.2%	2.6%	2.7%	0.95×	38.96

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (0:4)	96.8%	97.7%	97.3%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.3%	1.4%	1.7%	0.81×	70.54
Grêmio (0:4)	0.9%	1.4%	1.1%	1.27×	70.59

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio (1:0)	73.1%	71.7%	76.0%	0.94×	1.39
Draw (1:0)	15.8%	17.5%	14.6%	1.20×	5.70
Vasco da Gama (1:0)	11.1%	12.5%	9.5%	1.31×	8.02

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio (2:0)	89.0%	88.1%	90.5%	0.97×	1.14
Draw (2:0)	7.7%	6.7%	6.2%	1.08×	14.98
Vasco da Gama (2:0)	3.4%	2.8%	3.5%	0.79×	36.34

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.7%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
Halves equal	26.8%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
1st half highest scoring	26.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio to concede	67.9%	68.4%	65.3%	1.05×	1.46
Grêmio clean sheet	32.1%	31.6%	34.7%	0.91×	3.16

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio clean sheet in 1st half	63.5%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Grêmio to concede in 1st half	36.5%	37.6%	—	—	2.66

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio under 6.5 corners	80.0%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Grêmio over 2.5 corners	73.5%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Grêmio under 5.5 corners	70.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Grêmio over 3.5 corners	57.7%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Grêmio under 4.5 corners	57.4%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Grêmio over 4.5 corners	42.6%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Grêmio under 3.5 corners	42.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Grêmio over 5.5 corners	29.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Grêmio under 2.5 corners	26.5%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Grêmio over 6.5 corners	20.0%	19.1%	—	—	5.24

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio under 3.5 goals	92.9%	92.3%	94.3%	0.98×	1.08
Grêmio under 2.5 goals	79.8%	77.9%	81.6%	0.96×	1.28
Grêmio over 0.5 goals	78.7%	77.9%	79.7%	0.98×	1.28
Grêmio under 1.5 goals	54.3%	53.3%	54.5%	0.98×	1.88
Grêmio over 1.5 goals	45.7%	46.7%	45.5%	1.03×	2.14
Grêmio under 0.5 goals	21.3%	22.1%	20.4%	1.09×	4.53
Grêmio over 2.5 goals	20.2%	22.1%	18.4%	1.20×	4.53
Grêmio over 3.5 goals	7.1%	7.7%	5.7%	1.34×	13.04

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio under 1.5 in 1st half	85.7%	87.2%	—	—	1.15
Grêmio under 0.5 in 1st half	51.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Grêmio over 0.5 in 1st half	48.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Grêmio over 1.5 in 1st half	14.3%	12.8%	—	—	7.82

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	50.6%	52.1%	53.1%	0.98×	1.92
Vasco da Gama (home no bet)	49.4%	47.9%	46.9%	1.02×	2.09

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio even goals	52.3%	50.9%	51.7%	0.99×	1.96
Grêmio odd goals	47.7%	49.1%	48.3%	1.02×	2.04

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
HT 1-0	21.5%	22.2%	—	—	4.51
HT 0-1	14.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 1-1	10.1%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 2-0	7.2%	8.0%	—	—	12.47
Any other HT score	4.1%	2.5%	—	—	40.36
HT 0-2	3.4%	2.5%	—	—	40.40
HT 2-1	3.3%	2.5%	—	—	40.40
HT 1-2	2.2%	2.5%	—	—	40.45
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.5%	—	—	40.52

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio at HT / Grêmio at FT	27.4%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	17.1%	17.2%	—	—	5.82
Draw at HT / Grêmio at FT	15.8%	17.2%	—	—	5.82
Vasco da Gama at HT / Vasco da Gama at FT	14.1%	12.2%	—	—	8.20
Draw at HT / Vasco da Gama at FT	10.8%	12.2%	—	—	8.22
Grêmio at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.4%	—	—	15.59
Vasco da Gama at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.7%	—	—	27.26
Vasco da Gama at HT / Grêmio at FT	2.4%	3.7%	—	—	27.33
Grêmio at HT / Vasco da Gama at FT	2.0%	3.7%	—	—	27.34

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio to score last	53.1%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Vasco da Gama to score last	38.9%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
No goal scored	8.0%	6.3%	—	—	15.85

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.0%	93.6%	—	—	1.07
Grêmio to lead by 1 at any time	61.2%	63.9%	—	—	1.56
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	46.0%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Vasco da Gama to lead by 1 at any time	44.9%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
Grêmio to lead by 2 at any time	30.0%	25.9%	—	—	3.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.3%	17.3%	—	—	5.79
Vasco da Gama to lead by 2 at any time	16.2%	17.3%	—	—	5.79
Grêmio to lead by 3 at any time	11.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.11
Vasco da Gama to lead by 3 at any time	4.7%	2.5%	—	—	39.99

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama most corners	48.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Grêmio most corners	41.0%	43.6%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	10.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.63

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.5%	87.1%	88.9%	0.98×	1.15
1-4 goals	78.6%	77.9%	81.9%	0.95×	1.28
2-6 goals	73.9%	72.1%	73.8%	0.98×	1.39
2-5 goals	70.4%	72.1%	69.8%	1.03×	1.39
1-3 goals	63.9%	62.7%	68.8%	0.91×	1.60
2-4 goals	62.5%	62.7%	62.8%	1.00×	1.60
3-6 goals	48.2%	47.4%	47.1%	1.01×	2.11
2-3 goals	47.7%	47.4%	49.8%	0.95×	2.11
3-5 goals	44.7%	43.7%	43.1%	1.01×	2.29
1-2 goals	41.9%	43.7%	45.9%	0.95×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.7%	39.0%	36.1%	1.08×	2.56
4-6 goals	26.2%	28.5%	24.2%	1.18×	3.51
4-5 goals	22.7%	23.8%	20.2%	1.18×	4.20
5-6 goals	11.4%	13.5%	11.1%	1.21×	7.41
7+ goals	2.0%	2.2%	0.6%	3.53×	44.59

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio never behind	47.2%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Vasco da Gama never behind	30.9%	37.9%	—	—	2.64

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	52.5%	50.0%	50.7%	0.99×	2.00
Odd number of goals	47.5%	50.0%	49.3%	1.01×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.7%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Odd goals in 1st half	44.3%	44.9%	—	—	2.23

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.0%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.0%	48.4%	—	—	2.06

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.5%	92.3%	95.4%	0.97×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.0%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.6%	87.7%	88.4%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	75.9%	77.0%	74.2%	1.04×	1.30
Under 3.5 goals	71.8%	72.2%	75.4%	0.96×	1.39
Over 2.5 goals	50.2%	52.1%	47.5%	1.10×	1.92
Under 2.5 goals	49.8%	47.9%	52.5%	0.91×	2.09
Over 3.5 goals	28.2%	27.8%	24.6%	1.13×	3.60
Under 1.5 goals	24.1%	23.0%	25.8%	0.89×	4.35
Over 4.5 goals	13.4%	12.3%	11.6%	1.06×	8.14
Under 0.5 goals	8.0%	7.7%	6.7%	1.16×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	5.5%	7.7%	4.6%	1.67×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.9%	97.3%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.0%	92.0%	95.0%	0.97×	1.09
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.3%	81.3%	86.7%	0.94×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	67.5%	67.4%	64.9%	1.04×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	63.9%	62.0%	68.0%	0.91×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.1%	38.0%	32.0%	1.19×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	32.5%	32.6%	35.1%	0.93×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.7%	18.7%	13.3%	1.40×	5.35
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.0%	8.0%	5.0%	1.61×	12.56
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.1%	2.7%	0.7%	4.12×	36.69

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.7%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.0%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.1%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.9%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.0%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.3%	11.6%	—	—	8.62

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.3%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.7%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.7%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.3%	49.9%	—	—	2.00
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.3%	20.1%	—	—	4.96
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.7%	20.1%	—	—	4.97

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama not to score in both halves	81.9%	81.2%	—	—	1.23
Grêmio not to score in both halves	71.6%	72.8%	—	—	1.37
Grêmio to score in both halves	28.4%	27.2%	—	—	3.67
Vasco da Gama to score in both halves	18.1%	18.8%	—	—	5.33

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	54.5%	54.5%	51.7%	1.05×	1.84
Only Grêmio scores	24.1%	21.3%	28.1%	0.76×	4.70
Only Vasco da Gama scores	13.4%	11.1%	13.8%	0.80×	9.04
Neither team scores	8.0%	7.2%	6.7%	1.07×	13.96

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.7%	25.0%	26.9%	0.93×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.3%	23.1%	0.97×	4.48
Exactly 1 goals	16.1%	17.6%	19.2%	0.91×	5.69
Exactly 4 goals	14.7%	12.3%	13.2%	0.93×	8.12
Exactly 0 goals	8.0%	7.8%	6.7%	1.16×	12.89
Exactly 5 goals	7.9%	7.8%	7.2%	1.08×	12.89
6 or more goals	5.5%	7.8%	4.6%	1.68×	12.89

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.7%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
1 goal in 2nd half	32.0%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
No goals in 2nd half	21.3%	20.1%	—	—	4.97

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama not to win both halves	94.3%	92.3%	—	—	1.08
Grêmio not to win both halves	86.7%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Grêmio to win both halves	13.3%	12.1%	—	—	8.28
Vasco da Gama to win both halves	5.7%	7.7%	—	—	12.97

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio to win either half	59.2%	57.3%	—	—	1.75
Vasco da Gama to win neither half	58.2%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Vasco da Gama to win either half	41.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Grêmio to win neither half	40.8%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama not to win to nil	86.6%	88.1%	86.2%	1.02×	1.14
Grêmio not to win to nil	75.9%	78.7%	71.9%	1.10×	1.27
Grêmio to win to nil	24.1%	21.3%	28.1%	0.76×	4.69
Vasco da Gama to win to nil	13.4%	11.9%	13.8%	0.86×	8.39

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.5%	27.4%	27.2%	1.01×	3.65
Grêmio by 1	21.9%	23.3%	25.9%	0.90×	4.29
Vasco da Gama by 1	15.8%	17.3%	14.6%	1.18×	5.78
Grêmio by 2	14.1%	11.8%	14.1%	0.84×	8.46
Grêmio by 3+	9.6%	7.3%	9.2%	0.79×	13.65
Vasco da Gama by 2	7.7%	7.3%	6.2%	1.18×	13.66
Vasco da Gama by 3+	3.4%	3.0%	3.5%	0.85×	33.81