Grimsby Town v Crawley Town — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 19 September 2026 · ENG-League Two · 2627
ENG-League Two results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-0 12.4%
- 1-0 12.4%
- 2-1 9.7%
- 1-1 9.4%
- 3-0 8.4%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 53.2% | Under 2.5 | 46.8% |
| BTTS yes | 46.9% | BTTS no | 53.1% |
| Grimsby Town 1+ | 86.8% | Grimsby Town 2+ | 60.1% |
| Crawley Town 1+ | 54.2% | Crawley Town 2+ | 18.4% |
Expected goals 2.03 – 0.78. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- At home Grimsby Town average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Grimsby Town have only 1 matches on record.
- Crawley Town have only 1 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Grimsby Town have an estimated 66.5% win probability, against 19.9% for the draw and 13.6% for Crawley Town. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.02 for Grimsby Town and 0.78 for Crawley Town.
Why Grimsby Town
At home Grimsby Town average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 19.9%.
Why Crawley Town can win
Nothing in the data singles out Crawley Town.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Grimsby Town, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Crawley Town, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Grimsby Town: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Crawley Town: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·
Grimsby Town are the model's most likely outcome at 66.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 12.4%. Confidence 27/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 2.03–0.78 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 2.04–0.68 | 2-0 14% | 51% | 43% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.