Guingamp v Pau — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 16 October 2026 · FRA-Ligue 2 · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,353 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.9%
- 2-1 9.1%
- 1-0 8.4%
- 1-2 7.5%
- 2-0 7.0%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 55.3% | Under 2.5 | 44.7% |
| BTTS yes | 58.4% | BTTS no | 41.6% |
| Guingamp 1+ | 79.7% | Guingamp 2+ | 47.3% |
| Pau 1+ | 72.8% | Pau 2+ | 37.4% |
Expected goals 1.60 – 1.30. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Guingamp.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Guingamp have an estimated 41.2% win probability, against 31.6% for Pau and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.59 for Guingamp and 1.30 for Pau.
Why Guingamp
Nothing in the data singles out Guingamp.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 27.3%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.
Why Pau can win
Nothing in the data singles out Pau.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Guingamp, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Pau, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Guingamp: 57% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Pau: 45% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Guingamp are the model's most likely outcome at 41.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.73–1.35 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 61% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.