Hamburger SV v Augsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 18
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
12 – 15
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.46 – 0.90
Goals − xG
-0.53 – -1.58
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hamburger SV win
39.9%
Draw
29.9%
Augsburg win
30.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hamburger SV have scored 11 from 11.2 expected and conceded 24 from 25.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLWWDLL last 10
scored 11
from 11.2 xG
conceded 24
from 25.8 xG
Augsburg are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWDWWLWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.8 xG
conceded 17
from 20.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.30–1.10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.60–1.26 | 1-1 12% | 54% | 57% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hamburger SV 1.53 xGAugsburg 2.58 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hamburger SV attacking right
Augsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Hamburger SV |
Philip Otele | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | William Mikelbrencis |
| 3' |
 Augsburg |
Michael Gregoritsch | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 5' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cédric Zesiger |
| 9' |
Augsburg |
Michael Gregoritsch | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 11' |
Hamburger SV |
William Mikelbrencis | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ransford Königsdörffer |
| 18' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Robert Glatzel |
| 21' |
Augsburg |
Arthur Chaves | 0.73 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 33' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 33' |
Hamburger SV |
Robert Glatzel | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 36' |
Hamburger SV |
Miro Muheim | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Hamburger SV |
Robert Glatzel | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Warmed Omari |
| 38' |
Hamburger SV |
Philip Otele | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
Hamburger SV |
Robert Glatzel | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 46' |
Augsburg |
Michael Gregoritsch | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 49' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fábio Vieira |
| 52' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 53' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Anton Kade |
| 59' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Robert Glatzel |
| 61' |
Hamburger SV |
Rayan Philippe | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fábio Vieira |
| 62' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Miro Muheim |
| 65' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.16 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
Augsburg |
Robin Fellhauer | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 71' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 72' |
Augsburg |
Michael Gregoritsch | 0.40 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 73' |
Augsburg |
Michael Gregoritsch | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Marius Wolf |
| 76' |
Hamburger SV |
Jordan Torunarigha | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | William Mikelbrencis |
| 78' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 78' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
Hamburger SV |
Albert Grønbæk | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 84' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 87' |
Hamburger SV |
Giorgi Gocholeishvili | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fábio Vieira |
| 90' |
Augsburg |
Marius Wolf | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 92' |
Hamburger SV |
Jordan Torunarigha | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Fábio Vieira |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Gregoritsch FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.03 | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| Arthur Chaves DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Fabian Rieder MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.18 | 0.89 |
| Alexis Claude Maurice AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.83 |
| Marius Wolf DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.85 | 0.92 |
| Keven Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Dimitris Giannoulis DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.37 |
| Cédric Zesiger DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.25 |
| Anton Kade AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 0.28 |
| Robin Fellhauer MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Han-Noah Massengo Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Ribeiro Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Uchenna Ogundu Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Torunarigha DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Luka Vuskovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| William Mikelbrencis DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| Fábio Vieira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.05 | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Warmed Omari DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.59 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer AMC | 70 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.11 | 0.62 |
| Robert Glatzel FW | 70 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.06 | 0.60 |
| Miro Muheim DML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| Philip Otele AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Rayan Philippe Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Albert Grønbæk Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Giorgi Gocholeishvili Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Otto Stange Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |