Hamburger SV v Bayer Leverkusen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 4 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 14
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 11
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.54
Goals − xG
-1.71 – -1.68
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hamburger SV win
25.8%
Draw
28.2%
Bayer Leverkusen win
46.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hamburger SV have scored 12 from 11.8 expected and conceded 20 from 18.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWDLLLWWWL last 10
scored 12
from 11.8 xG
conceded 20
from 18.8 xG
Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 2.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLDLWDWWWL last 10
scored 22
from 24.2 xG
conceded 17
from 16.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.06–1.49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.22–1.56 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 56% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hamburger SV 1.71 xGBayer Leverkusen 2.68 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hamburger SV attacking right
Bayer Leverkusen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
Montrell Culbreath | 0.53 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ibrahim Maza |
| 11' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Martin Terrier | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Aleix García |
| 15' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.11 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
 Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Damion Downs |
| 19' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Aleix García | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Kofane |
| 29' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ibrahim Maza | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Exequiel Palacios |
| 29' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Warmed Omari |
| 31' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ibrahim Maza |
| 46' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Martin Terrier | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ibrahim Maza |
| 53' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Edmond Tapsoba | 0.35 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 53' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Exequiel Palacios | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Robert Andrich |
| 54' |
Hamburger SV |
Nicolai Remberg | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Damion Downs |
| 55' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Montrell Culbreath |
| 72' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ibrahim Maza |
| 77' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 86' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 90' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 90' |
Hamburger SV |
Otto Stange | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 93' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Malik Tillman | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 95' |
Hamburger SV |
Daniel Elfadli | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jean-Luc Dompe |
| 97' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.67 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 97' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.56 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | — |
| 97' |
Hamburger SV |
Otto Stange | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | William Mikelbrencis |
Players
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álex Grimaldo DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.64 | 0.40 | 0.57 |
| Christian Kofane FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.09 | 0.47 |
| Edmond Tapsoba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| Aleix García MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| Ibrahim Maza AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.08 | 0.85 | 1.05 |
| Exequiel Palacios MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.46 |
| Robert Andrich DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.42 |
| Jarell Quansah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Janis Blaswich GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Montrell Culbreath DMR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.06 | 1.00 |
| Martin Terrier AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Malik Tillman Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Ernest Poku Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ezequiél Fernández Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Vuskovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 1.31 |
| Daniel Elfadli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Fábio Vieira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giorgi Gocholeishvili DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Rayan Philippe AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Warmed Omari DC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Damion Downs FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| William Mikelbrencis Sub | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| Bakery Jatta DMR | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Otto Stange Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jordan Torunarigha Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Luc Dompe Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |