Hamburger SV v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 31 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 13
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
11 – 8
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.97 – 0.28
Goals − xG
-0.65 – -0.63
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hamburger SV win
7.5%
Draw
16.2%
Bayern Munich win
76.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hamburger SV are conceding fewer than expected — 3.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLDLLLWWDL last 10
scored 12
from 11.5 xG
conceded 20
from 23.5 xG
Bayern Munich are finishing above their chances — 3.0 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWWDWWW last 10
scored 35
from 32.0 xG
conceded 13
from 17.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.75–2.60 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.75–2.83 | 0-2 11% | 69% | 50% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hamburger SV 2.65 xGBayern Munich 2.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hamburger SV attacking right
Bayern Munich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ransford Königsdörffer |
| 5' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 6' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolás Capaldo |
| 7' |
Hamburger SV |
Miro Muheim | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
 Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Harry Kane |
| 13' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 14' |
Bayern Munich |
Lennart Karl | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 15' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Harry Kane |
| 21' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Serge Gnabry |
| 23' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Hamburger SV |
Nicolás Capaldo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 28' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 30' |
Hamburger SV |
Nicolás Capaldo | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 41' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.66 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Joshua Kimmich |
| 41' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Serge Gnabry |
| 45' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 49' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.10 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 49' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.41 | Open Play | — | Goal | William Mikelbrencis |
| 58' |
Hamburger SV |
Nicolás Capaldo | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 58' |
Hamburger SV |
Nicolás Capaldo | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
Bayern Munich |
Jonathan Tah | 0.14 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 74' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rayan Philippe |
| 89' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 90' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.05 | 1.03 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.60 | 1.10 | 1.87 |
| Michael Olise AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.48 | 1.29 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1.32 |
| Manuel Neuer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Josip Stanisic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.02 |
| Dayotchanculle Upamecano DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Alphonso Davies DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| Serge Gnabry AML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.54 | 1.33 |
| Kim Min-Jae DC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Lennart Karl AMC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 1.09 |
| Luis Díaz Sub | 38 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Jonathan Tah Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jamal Musiala Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fábio Vieira AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1.37 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Nicolás Capaldo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.06 | 0.74 |
| Luka Vuskovic DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Miro Muheim MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.61 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Daniel Elfadli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.56 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| William Mikelbrencis DML | 79 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| Bakery Jatta DMR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Giorgi Gocholeishvili Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rayan Philippe Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Warmed Omari Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Immanuel Pherai Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robert Glatzel Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |