Hamburger SV v Borussia Dortmund — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 8 November 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 17
On target
3 – 1
Shots in box
7 – 9
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.54
Goals − xG
+0.58 – -0.43
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hamburger SV win
14.9%
Draw
22.1%
Borussia Dortmund win
63.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hamburger SV have scored 12 from 11.8 expected and conceded 20 from 18.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWDLLLWWWL last 10
scored 12
from 11.8 xG
conceded 20
from 18.8 xG
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWWWWDDW last 10
scored 17
from 20.7 xG
conceded 7
from 11.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.83–1.94 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.29–1.59 | 1-1 12% | 55% | 58% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hamburger SV 0.42 xGBorussia Dortmund 1.43 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hamburger SV attacking right
Borussia Dortmund attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Carney Chukwuemeka | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 4' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Daniel Svensson | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Nico Schlotterbeck | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 19' |
 Hamburger SV |
Yussuf Poulsen | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 21' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Emre Can | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Ryerson | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carney Chukwuemeka |
| 23' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carney Chukwuemeka |
| 29' |
Hamburger SV |
Jean-Luc Dompe | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Giorgi Gocholeishvili |
| 32' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Carney Chukwuemeka | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Beier |
| 34' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Carney Chukwuemeka | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maximilian Beier |
| 38' |
Hamburger SV |
Nicolás Capaldo | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Giorgi Gocholeishvili |
| 40' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Daniel Svensson | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Nico Schlotterbeck | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Pascal Groß | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 58' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carney Chukwuemeka |
| 63' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Carney Chukwuemeka | 0.19 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Nico Schlotterbeck |
| 63' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Ryerson | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Pascal Groß | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Karim Adeyemi |
| 71' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 75' |
Hamburger SV |
Robert Glatzel | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 95' |
Hamburger SV |
Jean-Luc Dompe | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ransford Königsdörffer |
| 95' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 96' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Goal | Miro Muheim |
| 98' |
Hamburger SV |
Jean-Luc Dompe | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | William Mikelbrencis |
Players
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serhou Guirassy FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Daniel Svensson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Pascal Groß MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 0.75 |
| Nico Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| Julian Ryerson DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.50 |
| Emre Can DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Waldemar Anton DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jobe Bellingham MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carney Chukwuemeka AMC | 83 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.73 | 0.15 | 0.66 |
| Maximilian Beier AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.47 | 0.59 |
| Karim Adeyemi Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Felix Nmecha Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aaron Anselmino Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcel Sabitzer Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Luc Dompe FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Nicolás Capaldo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Luka Vuskovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Miro Muheim DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Jordan Torunarigha DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| Giorgi Gocholeishvili DMR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Rayan Philippe FWR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Yussuf Poulsen FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer Sub | 27 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Robert Glatzel Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| William Mikelbrencis Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Fabio Baldé Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Guilherme Ramos Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |