Hamburger SV v Borussia M.Gladbach — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
26 – 6
On target
12 – 0
Shots in box
14 – 4
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-1.26 – -0.58
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hamburger SV win
34.3%
Draw
28.9%
Borussia M.Gladbach win
36.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hamburger SV have scored 11 from 11.2 expected and conceded 24 from 25.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLWWDLL last 10
scored 11
from 11.2 xG
conceded 24
from 25.8 xG
Borussia M.Gladbach are conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLDDWLWLL last 10
scored 15
from 14.1 xG
conceded 17
from 20.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.32–1.37 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.49–1.28 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hamburger SV 1.26 xGBorussia M.Gladbach 0.58 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hamburger SV attacking right
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Hamburger SV |
Nicolai Remberg | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 3' |
Hamburger SV |
Jean-Luc Dompe | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 3' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 7' |
Hamburger SV |
Miro Muheim | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolás Capaldo |
| 12' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jordan Torunarigha |
| 16' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Hamburger SV |
Bakery Jatta | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jean-Luc Dompe |
| 18' |
Hamburger SV |
Nicolás Capaldo | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Damion Downs |
| 20' |
Hamburger SV |
Damion Downs | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Hamburger SV |
Jordan Torunarigha | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 24' |
Hamburger SV |
Miro Muheim | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolás Capaldo |
| 24' |
Hamburger SV |
Nicolai Remberg | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fábio Vieira |
| 26' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 31' |
Hamburger SV |
Damion Downs | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fábio Vieira |
| 34' |
Hamburger SV |
Nicolai Remberg | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jean-Luc Dompe |
| 45' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bakery Jatta |
| 48' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nico Elvedi |
| 49' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bakery Jatta |
| 51' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 53' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ransford Königsdörffer |
| 56' |
Hamburger SV |
Bakery Jatta | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolás Capaldo |
| 57' |
Hamburger SV |
Damion Downs | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jean-Luc Dompe |
| 68' |
Hamburger SV |
Miro Muheim | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Giorgi Gocholeishvili |
| 69' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.37 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kevin Diks |
| 73' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Luca Netz | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Diks | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Rocco Reitz |
| 90' |
Hamburger SV |
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 90' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 95' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Luca Netz | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 97' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Giorgi Gocholeishvili |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haris Tabakovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Luca Netz DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yannick Engelhardt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Joe Scally DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Philipp Sander DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Rocco Reitz MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| Moritz Nicolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Diks DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| Florian Neuhaus AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Franck Honorat AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Jens Castrop Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Reyna Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kota Takai Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shuto Machino Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fábio Vieira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 0.65 |
| Miro Muheim DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.59 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Luka Vuskovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Jordan Torunarigha DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.58 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Bakery Jatta DMR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.27 |
| Damion Downs FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.33 | 0.55 |
| Jean-Luc Dompe FWL | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.28 |
| Nicolás Capaldo DC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.14 | 0.58 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer FWR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| Giorgi Gocholeishvili Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Rayan Philippe Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Robert Glatzel Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Guilherme Ramos Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |