Hamburger SV v Eintracht Frankfurt — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 20 December 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 9
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 7
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.15
Goals − xG
-0.19 – -0.12
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hamburger SV win
23.5%
Draw
23.7%
Eintracht Frankfurt win
52.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hamburger SV have scored 11 from 11.2 expected and conceded 24 from 25.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLWWDLL last 10
scored 11
from 11.2 xG
conceded 24
from 25.8 xG
Eintracht Frankfurt are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDWLDLLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 17.1 xG
conceded 23
from 20.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.18–1.87 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.36–1.85 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 63% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hamburger SV 1.19 xGEintracht Frankfurt 1.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hamburger SV attacking right
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 18' |
Hamburger SV |
Albert Sambi Lokonga | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 25' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Larsson | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nathaniel Brown |
| 26' |
Hamburger SV |
Albert Sambi Lokonga | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 26' |
Hamburger SV |
Rayan Philippe | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 26' |
Hamburger SV |
William Mikelbrencis | 0.61 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Fabio Baldé |
| 30' |
Hamburger SV |
Miro Muheim | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Fabio Baldé |
| 44' |
Hamburger SV |
William Mikelbrencis | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 46' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Mahmoud Dahoud | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Larsson | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Oscar Højlund |
| 58' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 72' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ritsu Doan |
| 72' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 73' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Mahmoud Dahoud | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 76' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Mahmoud Dahoud | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Can Uzun |
| 76' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Nathaniel Brown | 0.20 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 96' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Robin Koch | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nnamdi Collins |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mahmoud Dahoud MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Nathaniel Brown DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.49 | 0.69 |
| Robin Koch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nnamdi Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.50 |
| Aurèle Amenda DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Ritsu Doan AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Michael Zetterer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ansgar Knauff FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Hugo Larsson MC | 74 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Rasmus Kristensen DMR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean Négoce AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Oscar Højlund Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| Can Uzun Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Elias Baum Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jessic Ngankam Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aurélio Buta Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Sambi Lokonga MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.17 | 0.43 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Rayan Philippe FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Luka Vuskovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Miro Muheim DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.29 |
| Nicolás Capaldo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Fabio Baldé FWL | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.80 |
| William Mikelbrencis DR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Daniel Elfadli DC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Bakery Jatta Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aboubaka Soumahoro Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fábio Vieira Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Immanuel Pherai Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giorgi Gocholeishvili Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |