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Hamburger SV v FC Cologne — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated

2–1
2.08 – 2.16 xG
Shots
12 – 18
On target
7 – 5
Shots in box
7 – 12
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.69 – 0.31
Goals − xG
-0.14 – -1.16

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Hamburger SV win
29.3%
model 31.1%
Draw
22.6%
model 23.3%
FC Cologne win
48.1%
model 45.6%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 10.5%
  2. 1-2 9.2%
  3. 0-1 7.5%
  4. 2-1 7.4%
  5. 0-2 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.560.8% Under 2.539.2%
BTTS yes62.2% BTTS no37.8%
Hamburger SV 1+75.4% Hamburger SV 2+40.9%
FC Cologne 1+82.4% FC Cologne 2+51.9%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.74. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
98/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Hamburger SV to win neither half
Win either half · usually 42%
53.7% fair odds 1.86
strong signal · 1079 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both teams to score 2+
GG/NG 2+ · usually 80%
83.1% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 264 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • FC Cologne have created 2.26 xG a match over their last five while Hamburger SV have allowed 2.22.
  • Away from home FC Cologne average 1.96 xG a match.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

FC Cologne have an estimated 48.1% win probability, against 29.3% for Hamburger SV and 22.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.40 for Hamburger SV and 1.74 for FC Cologne.

Why Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV have created 1.05 xG a match over their last five while FC Cologne have allowed 1.96. At home Hamburger SV average 1.17 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: FC Cologne were missing 1.23 expected goal involvements a match against 0.82.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.6%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why FC Cologne can win

FC Cologne have created 2.26 xG a match over their last five while Hamburger SV have allowed 2.22. Away from home FC Cologne average 1.96 xG a match.

Key players

Hamburger SV's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Fábio Vieira (0.25), Ransford Königsdörffer (0.24), Albert Grønbæk (0.19). FC Cologne's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Said El Mala (0.44), Ragnar Ache (0.41), Jakub Kaminski (0.35).

Availability

2 of Hamburger SV's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Hamburger SV's last eleven are new to the club this window. 3 of FC Cologne's top three contributors did not start their last match. 45% of FC Cologne's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Hamburger SV: 45% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 18.7 faced, 0.12 xG a match from set pieces. FC Cologne: 41% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.41 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-19 13:53 · team_stats 2026-09-19 06:04 · availability 2026-09-19 15:09 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

FC Cologne are the model's most likely outcome at 48.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.5%. Confidence 98/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Hamburger SV have scored 12 from 11.8 expected and conceded 20 from 18.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WWDLLLWWWL last 10 scored 12 from 11.8 xG conceded 20 from 18.8 xG

FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.8 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

DLLWLDLWLD last 10 scored 12 from 16.8 xG conceded 21 from 17.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend 1.40–1.74 0% 0% 0% Away ✗
dc-xg 1.47–1.74 1-1 10% 62% 63% Away ✗
dc-xg-oos 1.47–1.73 1-1 10% 62% 63% Away ✗
deep 1.46–1.74 1-1 10% 62% 63% Away ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne to win 44.2% 43.0% 33.7% 1.28× 2.33
Hamburger SV to win 32.6% 30.5% 41.7% 0.73× 3.28
Draw 23.2% 24.5% 24.8% 0.99× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne & both teams score 25.2% 25.1% 18.6% 1.35× 3.98
Draw & both teams score 19.1% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.57
FC Cologne & not both score 19.1% 18.0% 15.3% 1.17× 5.57
Hamburger SV & both teams score 19.0% 18.0% 22.0% 0.82× 5.57
Hamburger SV & not both score 13.5% 13.3% 19.8% 0.67× 7.52
Draw & not both score 4.1% 4.9% 5.8% 0.85× 20.44
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne & over 1.5 37.2% 34.8% 27.9% 1.25× 2.87
FC Cologne & over 2.5 31.0% 30.8% 23.7% 1.30× 3.25
Hamburger SV & over 1.5 26.6% 26.1% 35.6% 0.73× 3.84
FC Cologne & under 3.5 25.8% 26.1% 19.7% 1.33× 3.84
Hamburger SV & over 2.5 22.3% 21.6% 29.6% 0.73× 4.63
Hamburger SV & under 3.5 20.0% 21.6% 21.5% 1.00× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 19.1% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.56
FC Cologne & over 3.5 18.5% 18.0% 14.2% 1.27× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 14.4% 12.9% 15.4% 0.83× 7.77
Draw & under 3.5 14.4% 12.9% 15.4% 0.83× 7.77
FC Cologne & under 2.5 13.2% 12.9% 10.1% 1.27× 7.77
Hamburger SV & over 3.5 12.5% 12.9% 20.3% 0.63× 7.77
Hamburger SV & under 2.5 10.3% 12.9% 12.2% 1.06× 7.78
Draw & over 2.5 8.8% 7.9% 9.5% 0.83× 12.62
Draw & over 3.5 8.8% 7.9% 9.5% 0.83× 12.62
FC Cologne & under 1.5 7.1% 7.9% 5.9% 1.34× 12.62
Hamburger SV & under 1.5 6.0% 7.9% 6.2% 1.27× 12.62
Draw & under 1.5 4.1% 4.8% 5.8% 0.83× 20.83
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne (1UP) 62.1% 63.0% 52.8% 1.19× 1.59
Hamburger SV (1UP) 52.3% 52.6% 59.7% 0.88× 1.90
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne (2UP) 44.2% 47.7% 36.6% 1.31× 2.10
Hamburger SV (2UP) 32.6% 30.8% 45.0% 0.68× 3.25
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne to win 2nd half 38.4% 36.4% 29.4% 1.24× 2.75
2nd half drawn 32.5% 34.3% 33.6% 1.02× 2.92
Hamburger SV to win 2nd half 29.1% 26.6% 37.2% 0.72× 3.75
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne under 1.5 in 2nd half 73.8% 75.5% 79.5% 0.95× 1.32
FC Cologne over 0.5 in 2nd half 63.0% 59.9% 56.7% 1.06× 1.67
FC Cologne under 0.5 in 2nd half 37.0% 40.1% 43.3% 0.93× 2.49
FC Cologne over 1.5 in 2nd half 26.2% 24.5% 20.5% 1.20× 4.09
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV under 1.5 in 2nd half 80.1% 82.3% 74.5% 1.10× 1.21
Hamburger SV over 0.5 in 2nd half 56.0% 58.2% 62.5% 0.93× 1.72
Hamburger SV under 0.5 in 2nd half 44.0% 41.8% 37.5% 1.12× 2.39
Hamburger SV over 1.5 in 2nd half 19.9% 17.7% 25.5% 0.69× 5.67
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne (+2.5) 94.4% 92.1% 88.0% 1.05× 1.09
FC Cologne (+1.5) 85.0% 82.5% 75.2% 1.10× 1.21
FC Cologne (+0.5) 67.4% 68.7% 58.3% 1.18× 1.46
Hamburger SV (+0.5) 55.8% 57.0% 66.3% 0.86× 1.75
FC Cologne (-0.5) 44.2% 43.0% 33.7% 1.28× 2.33
Hamburger SV (-0.5) 32.6% 31.3% 41.7% 0.75× 3.19
Hamburger SV (-1.5) 15.0% 17.5% 24.8% 0.71× 5.71
Hamburger SV (-2.5) 5.6% 7.9% 12.0% 0.66× 12.71
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne to concede 76.9% 78.8% 79.1% 1.00× 1.27
FC Cologne clean sheet 23.1% 21.2% 20.9% 1.02× 4.71
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne clean sheet in 1st half 52.6% 50.3% 48.1% 1.04× 1.99
FC Cologne to concede in 1st half 47.4% 49.7% 51.9% 0.96× 2.01
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne to concede in 2nd half 56.0% 57.8% 62.5% 0.92× 1.73
FC Cologne clean sheet in 2nd half 44.0% 42.2% 37.5% 1.13× 2.37
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne under 3.5 goals 90.1% 92.3% 92.7% 1.00× 1.08
FC Cologne over 0.5 goals 82.4% 81.4% 74.6% 1.09× 1.23
FC Cologne under 2.5 goals 74.7% 71.9% 78.9% 0.91× 1.39
FC Cologne over 1.5 goals 51.8% 53.5% 42.9% 1.25× 1.87
FC Cologne under 1.5 goals 48.2% 46.5% 57.1% 0.81× 2.15
FC Cologne over 2.5 goals 25.3% 28.1% 21.1% 1.34× 3.56
FC Cologne under 0.5 goals 17.6% 18.6% 25.4% 0.73× 5.37
FC Cologne over 3.5 goals 9.9% 7.7% 7.3% 1.05× 12.97
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne under 1.5 in 1st half 82.9% 83.0% 85.6% 0.97× 1.21
FC Cologne over 0.5 in 1st half 52.5% 55.3% 45.6% 1.21× 1.81
FC Cologne under 0.5 in 1st half 47.5% 44.7% 54.4% 0.82× 2.24
FC Cologne over 1.5 in 1st half 17.1% 17.0% 14.4% 1.18× 5.89
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne scores more in 2nd half 40.3% 44.1% 36.7% 1.20× 2.27
FC Cologne scores equally in both 33.2% 33.9% 39.1% 0.87× 2.95
FC Cologne scores more in 1st half 26.5% 26.3% 24.4% 1.08× 3.81
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV (away no bet) 58.4% 57.4% 62.7% 0.92× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 41.6% 42.6% 37.3% 1.14× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne even goals 51.5% 52.6% 53.2% 0.99× 1.90
FC Cologne odd goals 48.5% 47.4% 46.8% 1.01× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 78.2% 81.8% 75.5% 1.08× 1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals 21.8% 18.2% 24.5% 0.74× 5.49
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 72.7% 67.2% 72.5% 0.93× 1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals 27.3% 32.8% 27.5% 1.19× 3.05
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 63.9% 60.0% 66.9% 0.90× 1.67
FC Cologne to score 2+ in a row 41.4% 38.1% 34.5% 1.10× 2.62
Hamburger SV to score 2+ in a row 32.1% 29.0% 42.3% 0.69× 3.45
Either team to score 3+ in a row 25.0% 25.2% 29.7% 0.85× 3.97
FC Cologne to score 3+ in a row 15.6% 16.3% 12.8% 1.27× 6.12
Hamburger SV to score 3+ in a row 10.0% 5.8% 17.8% 0.32× 17.37
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 10.4% 11.5% 9.8% 1.17× 8.73
1-2 9.0% 7.4% 6.9% 1.08× 13.50
2-1 7.6% 7.4% 6.9% 1.08× 13.50
2-2 6.6% 7.4% 6.4% 1.16× 13.50
0-1 7.1% 7.4% 5.9% 1.25× 13.50
0-2 6.1% 7.4% 4.4% 1.70× 13.50
1-0 6.0% 7.4% 6.2% 1.19× 13.50
1-3 5.2% 7.4% 4.8% 1.53× 13.50
Any other score 4.8% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.33
2-3 3.8% 1.7% 2.7% 0.65× 58.33
2-4 1.7% 1.7% 1.1% 1.57× 58.34
3-0 2.1% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.34
3-1 3.7% 1.7% 6.1% 0.28× 58.33
3-2 3.2% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.34
3-3 1.9% 1.7% 3.0% 0.58× 58.34
3-4 0.8% 1.7% 1.4% 1.22× 58.35
4-0 0.8% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.35
4-1 1.4% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.35
4-2 1.2% 1.7% 1.1% 1.57× 58.35
4-3 0.7% 1.7% 0.9% 1.83× 58.35
4-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 58.35
0-0 4.1% 1.7% 5.8% 0.30× 58.33
0-3 3.6% 1.7% 3.0% 0.58× 58.33
0-4 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.10× 58.34
1-4 2.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.34
2-0 4.4% 1.7% 6.1% 0.28× 58.33
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne (2nd half DNB) 56.9% 59.5% 44.1% 1.35× 1.68
Hamburger SV (2nd half DNB) 43.1% 40.5% 55.9% 0.73× 2.47
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne leading at HT (DNB) 55.0% 58.1% 44.5% 1.31× 1.72
Hamburger SV leading at HT (DNB) 45.0% 41.9% 55.5% 0.75× 2.39
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV or FC Cologne (12) 76.8% 75.5% 75.2% 1.00× 1.32
FC Cologne or draw (X2) 67.4% 69.5% 58.3% 1.19× 1.44
Hamburger SV or draw (1X) 55.8% 57.0% 66.3% 0.86× 1.76
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne or draw at HT 72.3% 74.7% 63.1% 1.18× 1.34
Hamburger SV or draw at HT 66.1% 66.2% 70.5% 0.94× 1.51
Hamburger SV or FC Cologne at HT 61.5% 62.1% 66.3% 0.94× 1.61
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne or draw (1UP) 67.4% 75.9% 65.0% 1.17× 1.32
Hamburger SV or draw (1UP) 55.8% 62.5% 73.4% 0.85× 1.60
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne or draw in 2nd half 70.9% 73.4% 62.8% 1.17× 1.36
Hamburger SV or FC Cologne in 2nd half 67.5% 65.7% 66.4% 0.99× 1.52
Hamburger SV or draw in 2nd half 61.6% 63.6% 70.6% 0.90× 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 58.5% 58.1% 53.6% 1.08× 1.72
Neither half drawn 41.5% 41.9% 46.4% 0.90× 2.39
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne (DNB) 57.6% 58.1% 44.7% 1.30× 1.72
Hamburger SV (DNB) 42.4% 41.9% 55.3% 0.76× 2.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne to score first 52.1% 53.7% 43.6% 1.23× 1.86
Hamburger SV to score first 43.9% 41.9% 50.8% 0.83× 2.39
No goal scored 4.1% 4.4% 5.8% 0.76× 22.87
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 63.3% 56.5% 59.4% 0.95× 1.77
Not both teams to score 36.7% 43.5% 40.6% 1.07× 2.30
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 53.0% 47.2% 49.8% 0.95× 2.12
Not both score & under 2.5 27.6% 33.4% 27.8% 1.20× 2.99
Both score & under 2.5 10.4% 12.3% 9.8% 1.26× 8.10
Not both score & over 2.5 9.0% 8.3% 12.9% 0.64× 12.03
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 77.7% 79.6% 79.9% 1.00× 1.26
Both teams to score 2+ 22.3% 20.4% 20.1% 1.01× 4.91
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 64.7% 65.7% 65.3% 1.01× 1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half 35.3% 34.3% 34.7% 0.99× 2.92
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 48.6% 53.8% 51.6% 1.04× 1.86
Both score 2nd half only 26.5% 26.6% 28.1% 0.95× 3.76
Both score 1st half only 16.1% 15.5% 13.9% 1.11× 6.45
Both score in both halves 8.8% 7.0% 6.7% 1.04× 14.33
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 75.1% 81.0% 79.5% 1.02× 1.24
Both teams to score by HT 24.9% 19.0% 20.5% 0.93× 5.25
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 62.8% 58.9% 67.3% 0.87× 1.70
A half without a goal 37.2% 41.1% 32.7% 1.26× 2.43
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 43.1% 42.0% 38.8% 1.08× 2.38
4-6 goals 35.3% 35.2% 40.1% 0.88× 2.84
0-1 goals 17.1% 20.3% 17.6% 1.15× 4.94
7+ goals 4.5% 1.8% 3.7% 0.49× 54.73
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne to score exactly 1 30.6% 33.8% 31.8% 1.06× 2.96
FC Cologne to score exactly 2 26.6% 27.4% 22.0% 1.25× 3.65
FC Cologne to score 3+ 25.3% 27.4% 21.1% 1.30× 3.65
FC Cologne to score exactly 0 17.6% 19.6% 25.4% 0.77× 5.11
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV to score exactly 1 33.9% 32.6% 29.3% 1.11× 3.07
Hamburger SV to score exactly 2 24.8% 23.3% 22.6% 1.03× 4.29
Hamburger SV to score exactly 0 23.1% 23.3% 20.9% 1.12× 4.29
Hamburger SV to score 3+ 18.2% 18.8% 27.5% 0.69× 5.31
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 38.5% 37.9% 33.8% 1.12× 2.64
FC Cologne leading at HT 33.9% 33.8% 29.5% 1.14× 2.96
Hamburger SV leading at HT 27.7% 25.3% 36.9% 0.69× 3.95
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne -1: 1 55.8% 56.7% — — 1.76
FC Cologne -1: 2 23.4% 23.5% — — 4.25
FC Cologne -1: X 20.8% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne (0:1) 67.4% 65.1% 58.3% 1.12× 1.54
Draw (0:1) 17.5% 17.8% 17.0% 1.05× 5.61
Hamburger SV (0:1) 15.0% 17.8% 24.8% 0.72× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne (0:2) 85.0% 82.9% 75.2% 1.10× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 9.5% 7.7% 12.9% 0.59× 13.01
Hamburger SV (0:2) 5.6% 7.7% 12.0% 0.64× 13.05
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne (0:3) 94.4% 92.7% 88.0% 1.05× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 3.9% 2.4% 5.1% 0.46× 42.18
Hamburger SV (0:3) 1.7% 2.4% 7.0% 0.34× 42.28
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne (0:4) 98.3% 98.1% 93.0% 1.06× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.3% 1.2% 5.1% 0.23× 82.77
Hamburger SV (0:4) 0.4% 1.2% 2.0% 0.60× 82.87
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV (1:0) 55.8% 58.2% 66.3% 0.88× 1.72
FC Cologne (1:0) 23.4% 21.8% 17.5% 1.25× 4.59
Draw (1:0) 20.8% 21.8% 16.4% 1.33× 4.60
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV (2:0) 76.6% 80.3% 82.5% 0.97× 1.25
Draw (2:0) 13.3% 10.4% 10.1% 1.02× 9.66
FC Cologne (2:0) 10.1% 10.3% 7.5% 1.38× 9.69
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.7% 48.2% 47.2% 1.02× 2.07
1st half highest scoring 29.5% 26.4% 25.9% 1.02× 3.79
Halves equal 22.9% 24.3% 27.0% 0.90× 4.11
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV to concede 82.4% 80.8% 74.6% 1.08× 1.24
Hamburger SV clean sheet 17.6% 19.2% 25.4% 0.76× 5.21
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV to concede in 1st half 52.5% 55.3% 45.6% 1.21× 1.81
Hamburger SV clean sheet in 1st half 47.5% 44.7% 54.4% 0.82× 2.24
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV to concede in 2nd half 63.0% 59.7% 56.7% 1.05× 1.68
Hamburger SV clean sheet in 2nd half 37.0% 40.3% 43.3% 0.93× 2.48
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV under 3.5 goals 93.9% 92.2% 88.5% 1.04× 1.08
Hamburger SV under 2.5 goals 81.8% 82.2% 72.5% 1.13× 1.22
Hamburger SV over 0.5 goals 76.9% 77.7% 79.1% 0.98× 1.29
Hamburger SV under 1.5 goals 57.0% 58.7% 50.1% 1.17× 1.70
Hamburger SV over 1.5 goals 43.0% 41.3% 49.9% 0.83× 2.42
Hamburger SV under 0.5 goals 23.1% 22.3% 20.9% 1.07× 4.48
Hamburger SV over 2.5 goals 18.2% 17.8% 27.5% 0.65× 5.61
Hamburger SV over 3.5 goals 6.1% 7.8% 11.5% 0.67× 12.88
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV under 1.5 in 1st half 86.4% 89.9% 80.8% 1.11× 1.11
Hamburger SV under 0.5 in 1st half 52.6% 50.2% 48.1% 1.04× 1.99
Hamburger SV over 0.5 in 1st half 47.4% 49.8% 51.9% 0.96× 2.01
Hamburger SV over 1.5 in 1st half 13.6% 10.1% 19.2% 0.52× 9.92
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV scores equally in both 37.0% 37.5% 36.4% 1.03× 2.67
Hamburger SV scores more in 2nd half 36.8% 37.5% 38.3% 0.98× 2.67
Hamburger SV scores more in 1st half 26.2% 27.8% 25.5% 1.09× 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne (home no bet) 65.6% 63.9% 57.6% 1.11× 1.57
Draw (home no bet) 34.4% 36.1% 42.4% 0.85× 2.77
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV even goals 52.7% 50.7% 52.1% 0.97× 1.97
Hamburger SV odd goals 47.3% 49.3% 47.9% 1.03× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 25.0% 28.8% 23.0% 1.25× 3.47
HT 0-1 18.6% 18.8% 16.6% 1.14× 5.31
HT 1-0 16.0% 18.8% 19.5% 0.96× 5.33
HT 1-1 11.9% 10.8% 9.7% 1.11× 9.28
HT 0-2 6.9% 7.1% 7.3% 0.97× 14.09
Any other HT score 6.6% 7.1% 6.6% 1.08× 14.09
HT 2-0 5.2% 7.1% 9.7% 0.73× 14.11
HT 1-2 4.4% 2.3% 3.4% 0.68× 42.61
HT 2-1 3.8% 2.3% 4.2% 0.56× 42.65
HT 2-2 1.4% 2.3% 1.3% 1.87× 42.82
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne at HT / FC Cologne at FT 26.2% 26.6% 20.5% 1.30× 3.76
Hamburger SV at HT / Hamburger SV at FT 19.0% 16.8% 28.3% 0.59× 5.96
Draw at HT / FC Cologne at FT 14.8% 12.7% 9.8% 1.29× 7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.5% 12.7% 13.8% 0.92× 7.90
Draw at HT / Hamburger SV at FT 11.2% 12.6% 10.5% 1.21× 7.91
Hamburger SV at HT / Draw at FT 5.5% 6.1% 5.2% 1.18× 16.44
FC Cologne at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.1% 6.1% 1.00× 16.44
Hamburger SV at HT / FC Cologne at FT 3.2% 3.4% 3.8% 0.92× 29.08
FC Cologne at HT / Hamburger SV at FT 2.4% 3.4% 3.3% 1.05× 29.11
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne to score last 52.1% 51.9% 44.5% 1.16× 1.93
Hamburger SV to score last 43.9% 40.3% 49.8% 0.81× 2.48
No goal scored 4.1% 4.4% 5.8% 0.76× 22.87
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.9% 95.6% 94.2% 1.01× 1.05
FC Cologne to lead by 1 at any time 62.1% 61.2% 52.8% 1.16× 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 53.1% 50.7% 55.9% 0.91× 1.97
Hamburger SV to lead by 1 at any time 52.3% 50.7% 59.7% 0.85× 1.97
FC Cologne to lead by 2 at any time 31.3% 29.5% 23.6% 1.25× 3.39
Hamburger SV to lead by 2 at any time 22.2% 19.6% 33.1% 0.59× 5.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 20.7% 19.6% 25.9% 0.75× 5.11
FC Cologne to lead by 3 at any time 13.0% 10.5% 10.3% 1.02× 9.54
Hamburger SV to lead by 3 at any time 7.8% 6.7% 15.8% 0.43× 14.83
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.4% 87.4% 83.5% 1.05× 1.14
2-6 goals 78.4% 78.7% 78.8% 1.00× 1.27
1-4 goals 74.0% 72.4% 72.4% 1.00× 1.38
2-5 goals 72.4% 72.4% 71.6% 1.01× 1.38
2-4 goals 60.9% 63.4% 60.5% 1.05× 1.58
3-6 goals 57.6% 59.1% 59.0% 1.00× 1.69
1-3 goals 56.2% 59.1% 50.7% 1.16× 1.69
3-5 goals 51.5% 53.1% 51.8% 1.03× 1.88
2-3 goals 43.1% 43.5% 38.8% 1.12× 2.30
3-4 goals 40.1% 43.5% 40.7% 1.07× 2.30
4-6 goals 35.3% 39.2% 40.1% 0.98× 2.55
1-2 goals 33.9% 35.2% 31.8% 1.11× 2.84
4-5 goals 29.2% 30.3% 32.9% 0.92× 3.30
5-6 goals 17.5% 18.8% 18.4% 1.02× 5.32
7+ goals 4.5% 2.6% 3.7% 0.68× 39.16
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne never behind 43.6% 48.7% 40.3% 1.21× 2.06
Hamburger SV never behind 33.8% 36.1% 47.2% 0.76× 2.77
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.9% 50.9% 44.9% 1.13× 1.96
Even number of goals 50.1% 49.1% 55.1% 0.89× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.1% 51.9% 52.5% 0.99× 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 46.9% 48.1% 47.5% 1.01× 2.08
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.3% 52.0% 53.0% 0.98× 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.7% 48.0% 47.0% 1.02× 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.9% 95.4% 94.2% 1.01× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 89.5% 87.6% 89.1% 0.98× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 82.9% 82.3% 82.4% 1.00× 1.22
Under 4.5 goals 78.0% 77.4% 78.0% 0.99× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 62.0% 61.7% 62.6% 0.99× 1.62
Under 3.5 goals 60.2% 61.7% 56.3% 1.10× 1.62
Over 3.5 goals 39.8% 38.3% 43.7% 0.88× 2.61
Under 2.5 goals 38.0% 38.3% 37.4% 1.02× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 22.0% 22.6% 22.0% 1.03× 4.42
Under 1.5 goals 17.1% 17.7% 17.6% 1.00× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 10.5% 12.4% 10.9% 1.13× 8.08
Under 0.5 goals 4.1% 4.6% 5.8% 0.79× 21.86
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 95.3% 97.2% 96.0% 1.01× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 88.1% 86.7% 87.7% 0.99× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 78.4% 75.9% 78.0% 0.97× 1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 73.3% 72.4% 71.9% 1.01× 1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 51.2% 51.9% 53.8% 0.96× 1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 48.8% 48.1% 46.2% 1.04× 2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 26.7% 27.6% 28.1% 0.98× 3.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 21.6% 24.1% 22.0% 1.10× 4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 11.9% 13.3% 12.3% 1.08× 7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 4.7% 2.8% 4.0% 0.69× 35.73
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 83.7% 86.1% 85.0% 1.01× 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 75.0% 71.3% 77.0% 0.93× 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 59.7% 63.4% 58.8% 1.08× 1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half 40.3% 36.6% 41.3% 0.89× 2.74
Under 0.5 in 1st half 25.0% 28.7% 23.0% 1.25× 3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half 16.3% 13.9% 15.0% 0.93× 7.20
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 83.7% 82.8% 84.5% 0.98× 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 72.7% 77.7% 73.3% 1.06× 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 54.2% 53.2% 55.8% 0.95× 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 45.8% 46.8% 44.2% 1.06× 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 27.3% 22.3% 26.7% 0.83× 4.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 16.3% 17.2% 15.5% 1.11× 5.83
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV not to score in both halves 73.5% 74.2% 64.7% 1.15× 1.35
FC Cologne not to score in both halves 67.0% 69.8% 72.2% 0.97× 1.43
FC Cologne to score in both halves 33.0% 30.2% 27.8% 1.09× 3.31
Hamburger SV to score in both halves 26.5% 25.8% 35.3% 0.73× 3.88
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 63.3% 60.1% 59.4% 1.01× 1.66
Only FC Cologne scores 19.1% 16.0% 15.3% 1.05× 6.24
Only Hamburger SV scores 13.5% 11.0% 19.8% 0.56× 9.07
Neither team scores 4.1% 4.6% 5.8% 0.81× 21.52
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 22.6% 19.0% 1.19× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 20.9% 22.6% 20.0% 1.13× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 17.8% 17.5% 21.8% 0.80× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 13.0% 12.1% 12.0% 1.01× 8.25
Exactly 5 goals 11.4% 12.1% 11.2% 1.08× 8.25
6 or more goals 10.5% 12.1% 10.9% 1.11× 8.26
Exactly 0 goals 4.1% 4.5% 5.8% 0.78× 22.35
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 34.7% 36.1% 35.9% 1.01× 2.77
No goals in 1st half 25.0% 28.5% 23.0% 1.24× 3.50
2 goals in 1st half 24.0% 21.7% 26.4% 0.82× 4.62
3+ goals in 1st half 16.3% 15.3% 15.0% 1.02× 6.56
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 54.2% 51.5% 55.8% 0.92× 1.94
1 goal in 2nd half 29.6% 29.9% 28.9% 1.04× 3.34
No goals in 2nd half 16.3% 17.1% 15.5% 1.11× 5.84
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV not to win both halves 92.0% 94.0% 83.9% 1.12× 1.06
FC Cologne not to win both halves 87.0% 88.0% 90.6% 0.97× 1.14
FC Cologne to win both halves 13.0% 12.0% 9.4% 1.28× 8.33
Hamburger SV to win both halves 8.0% 6.0% 16.1% 0.37× 16.63
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne to win either half 59.2% 59.6% 49.5% 1.20× 1.68
Hamburger SV to win neither half 51.3% 54.6% 42.0% 1.30× 1.83
Hamburger SV to win either half 48.7% 45.4% 58.0% 0.78× 2.20
FC Cologne to win neither half 40.8% 40.4% 50.5% 0.80× 2.47
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamburger SV not to win to nil 86.5% 88.1% 80.2% 1.10× 1.14
FC Cologne not to win to nil 80.9% 83.1% 84.7% 0.98× 1.20
FC Cologne to win to nil 19.1% 16.9% 15.3% 1.11× 5.91
Hamburger SV to win to nil 13.5% 11.9% 19.8% 0.60× 8.42
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 23.2% 24.1% 24.8% 0.97× 4.15
FC Cologne by 1 20.8% 24.1% 16.4% 1.47× 4.15
Hamburger SV by 1 17.5% 17.0% 17.0% 1.00× 5.88
FC Cologne by 2 13.3% 11.8% 10.1% 1.16× 8.49
FC Cologne by 3+ 10.1% 11.8% 7.5% 1.57× 8.49
Hamburger SV by 2 9.5% 7.2% 12.9% 0.56× 13.87
Hamburger SV by 3+ 5.6% 7.2% 12.0% 0.60× 13.89
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.21.82.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Nicolás Capaldo 43' — goalYussuf Poulsen 48' — goalRagnar Ache 89' — goal
Hamburger SV 2.14 xGFC Cologne 2.16 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Thijs Dallinga 5' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Luka Lochoshvili 18' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)Mikey Moore 25' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mikey Moore 26' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Said El Mala 31' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Fábio Vieira 31' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Fábio Vieira 34' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Said El Mala 36' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Thijs Dallinga 37' — Saved Shot (0.65 xG, Open Play)Nicolás Capaldo 43' — Goal (0.54 xG, From Corner)Linton Maina 44' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Mikey Moore 46' — Missed Shot (0.39 xG, Open Play)Thijs Dallinga 46' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Yussuf Poulsen 48' — Goal (0.37 xG, Open Play)Said El Mala 51' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Nicolai Remberg 54' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Fábio Vieira 59' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Patson Daka 68' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Yussuf Poulsen 68' — Saved Shot (0.47 xG, Open Play)Ragnar Ache 70' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Nicolai Remberg 70' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Linton Maina 72' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Luka Lochoshvili 73' — Shot On Post (0.12 xG, Set Piece)Said El Mala 73' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Set Piece)Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson 74' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ragnar Ache 75' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Fábio Vieira 77' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Patson Daka 85' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Yussuf Poulsen 87' — Missed Shot (0.28 xG, Open Play)Ragnar Ache 89' — Goal (0.33 xG, Open Play)
Hamburger SV attacking right FC Cologne attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' FC Cologne Thijs Dallinga 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Linton Maina
18' FC Cologne Luka Lochoshvili 0.11 From Corner — Blocked Shot Linton Maina
25' FC Cologne Mikey Moore 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Luka Lochoshvili
26' FC Cologne Mikey Moore 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
31' FC Cologne Said El Mala 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Gideon Mensah
31' Hamburger SV Fábio Vieira 0.04 Direct Freekick Left Foot Saved Shot —
34' Hamburger SV Fábio Vieira 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
36' FC Cologne Said El Mala 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
37' FC Cologne Thijs Dallinga 0.65 Open Play — Saved Shot Gideon Mensah
43' Hamburger SV Nicolás Capaldo 0.54 From Corner — Goal Albert Grønbæk
44' FC Cologne Linton Maina 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Thijs Dallinga
46' FC Cologne Mikey Moore 0.39 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Thijs Dallinga
46' FC Cologne Thijs Dallinga 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Said El Mala
48' Hamburger SV Yussuf Poulsen 0.37 Open Play Right Foot Goal Albert Grønbæk
51' FC Cologne Said El Mala 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
54' Hamburger SV Nicolai Remberg 0.07 Set Piece — Missed Shot Albert Grønbæk
59' Hamburger SV Fábio Vieira 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Yussuf Poulsen
68' Hamburger SV Patson Daka 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
68' Hamburger SV Yussuf Poulsen 0.47 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot David Møller Wolfe
70' FC Cologne Ragnar Ache 0.04 From Corner — Missed Shot Linton Maina
70' Hamburger SV Nicolai Remberg 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Patson Daka
72' FC Cologne Linton Maina 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Tom Krauß
73' FC Cologne Luka Lochoshvili 0.12 Set Piece Right Foot Shot On Post Said El Mala
73' FC Cologne Said El Mala 0.03 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
74' FC Cologne Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Tom Krauß
75' FC Cologne Ragnar Ache 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Said El Mala
77' Hamburger SV Fábio Vieira 0.04 Direct Freekick Left Foot Saved Shot —
85' Hamburger SV Patson Daka 0.14 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Fábio Vieira
87' Hamburger SV Yussuf Poulsen 0.28 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Fábio Vieira
89' FC Cologne Ragnar Ache 0.33 Open Play — Goal Ellyes Skhiri

Players

Hamburger SV

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Nicolás Capaldo DC 90 1 0 1 0 0.54 0.00 0.50
Fábio Vieira AMC 90 0 0 4 2 0.13 0.42 0.47
Nicolai Remberg MC 90 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.15
Warmed Omari DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.50
Jordan Torunarigha DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.83
Albert Sambi Lokonga MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.41
David Møller Wolfe DML 79 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.47 0.83
Zakaria El Ouahdi DMR 79 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Albert Grønbæk AMC 69 0 2 0 3 0.00 0.97 0.37
Terem Igobor Moffi FW 48 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yussuf Poulsen Sub 42 1 0 3 1 1.11 0.03 1.15
Patson Daka Sub 21 0 0 2 1 0.27 0.01 0.28
Louis Lemke Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Bakery Jatta Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Martin Adeline Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

FC Cologne

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mikey Moore AMC 90 0 0 3 0 0.42 0.00 0.55
Luka Lochoshvili DC 90 0 0 2 1 0.23 0.02 0.79
Said El Mala AML 90 0 0 4 3 0.13 0.32 1.00
Ellyes Skhiri DMC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.33 1.19
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.47
Marvin Schwäbe GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.39
Linton Maina AMR 83 0 0 2 3 0.05 0.26 0.90
Tom Krauß DMC 83 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.03 0.89
Alessio Castro-Montes DR 69 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.73
Thijs Dallinga FW 66 0 0 3 2 0.88 0.42 1.29
Gideon Mensah DL 66 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.68 0.73
Ragnar Ache Sub 24 1 0 3 0 0.44 0.00 0.40
Borna Sosa Sub 24 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson Sub 21 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.03 0.44
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.33
Marius Bülter Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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