Hamburger SV v FC Cologne — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 19 September 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 10.5%
- 1-2 9.2%
- 0-1 7.5%
- 2-1 7.4%
- 0-2 6.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 60.8% | Under 2.5 | 39.2% |
| BTTS yes | 62.2% | BTTS no | 37.8% |
| Hamburger SV 1+ | 75.4% | Hamburger SV 2+ | 40.9% |
| FC Cologne 1+ | 82.4% | FC Cologne 2+ | 51.9% |
Expected goals 1.40 – 1.74. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- FC Cologne have created 2.26 xG a match over their last five while Hamburger SV have allowed 2.22.
- Away from home FC Cologne average 1.96 xG a match.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
FC Cologne have an estimated 48.1% win probability, against 29.3% for Hamburger SV and 22.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.40 for Hamburger SV and 1.74 for FC Cologne.
Why Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV have created 1.05 xG a match over their last five while FC Cologne have allowed 1.96. At home Hamburger SV average 1.17 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: FC Cologne were missing 1.23 expected goal involvements a match against 0.82.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 22.6%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why FC Cologne can win
FC Cologne have created 2.26 xG a match over their last five while Hamburger SV have allowed 2.22. Away from home FC Cologne average 1.96 xG a match.
Key players
Hamburger SV's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Fábio Vieira (0.25), Ransford Königsdörffer (0.24), Albert Grønbæk (0.19). FC Cologne's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Said El Mala (0.44), Ragnar Ache (0.41), Jakub Kaminski (0.35).
Availability
2 of Hamburger SV's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Hamburger SV's last eleven are new to the club this window. 3 of FC Cologne's top three contributors did not start their last match. 45% of FC Cologne's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Hamburger SV: 45% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 18.7 faced, 0.12 xG a match from set pieces. FC Cologne: 41% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.41 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-19 13:53 · team_stats 2026-09-19 06:04 · availability 2026-09-19 15:09 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
FC Cologne are the model's most likely outcome at 48.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.5%. Confidence 98/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hamburger SV have scored 12 from 11.8 expected and conceded 20 from 18.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.8 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.40–1.74 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg | 1.47–1.74 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 63% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.47–1.73 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 63% | Away ✗ | |
| deep | 1.46–1.74 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 63% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to win | 44.2% | 43.0% | 33.7% | 1.28× | 2.33 |
| Hamburger SV to win | 32.6% | 30.5% | 41.7% | 0.73× | 3.28 |
| Draw | 23.2% | 24.5% | 24.8% | 0.99× | 4.09 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne & both teams score | 25.2% | 25.1% | 18.6% | 1.35× | 3.98 |
| Draw & both teams score | 19.1% | 18.0% | 19.2% | 0.94× | 5.57 |
| FC Cologne & not both score | 19.1% | 18.0% | 15.3% | 1.17× | 5.57 |
| Hamburger SV & both teams score | 19.0% | 18.0% | 22.0% | 0.82× | 5.57 |
| Hamburger SV & not both score | 13.5% | 13.3% | 19.8% | 0.67× | 7.52 |
| Draw & not both score | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 0.85× | 20.44 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne & over 1.5 | 37.2% | 34.8% | 27.9% | 1.25× | 2.87 |
| FC Cologne & over 2.5 | 31.0% | 30.8% | 23.7% | 1.30× | 3.25 |
| Hamburger SV & over 1.5 | 26.6% | 26.1% | 35.6% | 0.73× | 3.84 |
| FC Cologne & under 3.5 | 25.8% | 26.1% | 19.7% | 1.33× | 3.84 |
| Hamburger SV & over 2.5 | 22.3% | 21.6% | 29.6% | 0.73× | 4.63 |
| Hamburger SV & under 3.5 | 20.0% | 21.6% | 21.5% | 1.00× | 4.63 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 19.1% | 18.0% | 19.2% | 0.94× | 5.56 |
| FC Cologne & over 3.5 | 18.5% | 18.0% | 14.2% | 1.27× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 14.4% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 0.83× | 7.77 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 14.4% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 0.83× | 7.77 |
| FC Cologne & under 2.5 | 13.2% | 12.9% | 10.1% | 1.27× | 7.77 |
| Hamburger SV & over 3.5 | 12.5% | 12.9% | 20.3% | 0.63× | 7.77 |
| Hamburger SV & under 2.5 | 10.3% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 1.06× | 7.78 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 0.83× | 12.62 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 0.83× | 12.62 |
| FC Cologne & under 1.5 | 7.1% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 1.34× | 12.62 |
| Hamburger SV & under 1.5 | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 1.27× | 12.62 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 0.83× | 20.83 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (1UP) | 62.1% | 63.0% | 52.8% | 1.19× | 1.59 |
| Hamburger SV (1UP) | 52.3% | 52.6% | 59.7% | 0.88× | 1.90 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (2UP) | 44.2% | 47.7% | 36.6% | 1.31× | 2.10 |
| Hamburger SV (2UP) | 32.6% | 30.8% | 45.0% | 0.68× | 3.25 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to win 2nd half | 38.4% | 36.4% | 29.4% | 1.24× | 2.75 |
| 2nd half drawn | 32.5% | 34.3% | 33.6% | 1.02× | 2.92 |
| Hamburger SV to win 2nd half | 29.1% | 26.6% | 37.2% | 0.72× | 3.75 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne under 1.5 in 2nd half | 73.8% | 75.5% | 79.5% | 0.95× | 1.32 |
| FC Cologne over 0.5 in 2nd half | 63.0% | 59.9% | 56.7% | 1.06× | 1.67 |
| FC Cologne under 0.5 in 2nd half | 37.0% | 40.1% | 43.3% | 0.93× | 2.49 |
| FC Cologne over 1.5 in 2nd half | 26.2% | 24.5% | 20.5% | 1.20× | 4.09 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV under 1.5 in 2nd half | 80.1% | 82.3% | 74.5% | 1.10× | 1.21 |
| Hamburger SV over 0.5 in 2nd half | 56.0% | 58.2% | 62.5% | 0.93× | 1.72 |
| Hamburger SV under 0.5 in 2nd half | 44.0% | 41.8% | 37.5% | 1.12× | 2.39 |
| Hamburger SV over 1.5 in 2nd half | 19.9% | 17.7% | 25.5% | 0.69× | 5.67 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (+2.5) | 94.4% | 92.1% | 88.0% | 1.05× | 1.09 |
| FC Cologne (+1.5) | 85.0% | 82.5% | 75.2% | 1.10× | 1.21 |
| FC Cologne (+0.5) | 67.4% | 68.7% | 58.3% | 1.18× | 1.46 |
| Hamburger SV (+0.5) | 55.8% | 57.0% | 66.3% | 0.86× | 1.75 |
| FC Cologne (-0.5) | 44.2% | 43.0% | 33.7% | 1.28× | 2.33 |
| Hamburger SV (-0.5) | 32.6% | 31.3% | 41.7% | 0.75× | 3.19 |
| Hamburger SV (-1.5) | 15.0% | 17.5% | 24.8% | 0.71× | 5.71 |
| Hamburger SV (-2.5) | 5.6% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 0.66× | 12.71 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to concede | 76.9% | 78.8% | 79.1% | 1.00× | 1.27 |
| FC Cologne clean sheet | 23.1% | 21.2% | 20.9% | 1.02× | 4.71 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne clean sheet in 1st half | 52.6% | 50.3% | 48.1% | 1.04× | 1.99 |
| FC Cologne to concede in 1st half | 47.4% | 49.7% | 51.9% | 0.96× | 2.01 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to concede in 2nd half | 56.0% | 57.8% | 62.5% | 0.92× | 1.73 |
| FC Cologne clean sheet in 2nd half | 44.0% | 42.2% | 37.5% | 1.13× | 2.37 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne under 3.5 goals | 90.1% | 92.3% | 92.7% | 1.00× | 1.08 |
| FC Cologne over 0.5 goals | 82.4% | 81.4% | 74.6% | 1.09× | 1.23 |
| FC Cologne under 2.5 goals | 74.7% | 71.9% | 78.9% | 0.91× | 1.39 |
| FC Cologne over 1.5 goals | 51.8% | 53.5% | 42.9% | 1.25× | 1.87 |
| FC Cologne under 1.5 goals | 48.2% | 46.5% | 57.1% | 0.81× | 2.15 |
| FC Cologne over 2.5 goals | 25.3% | 28.1% | 21.1% | 1.34× | 3.56 |
| FC Cologne under 0.5 goals | 17.6% | 18.6% | 25.4% | 0.73× | 5.37 |
| FC Cologne over 3.5 goals | 9.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 1.05× | 12.97 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne under 1.5 in 1st half | 82.9% | 83.0% | 85.6% | 0.97× | 1.21 |
| FC Cologne over 0.5 in 1st half | 52.5% | 55.3% | 45.6% | 1.21× | 1.81 |
| FC Cologne under 0.5 in 1st half | 47.5% | 44.7% | 54.4% | 0.82× | 2.24 |
| FC Cologne over 1.5 in 1st half | 17.1% | 17.0% | 14.4% | 1.18× | 5.89 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne scores more in 2nd half | 40.3% | 44.1% | 36.7% | 1.20× | 2.27 |
| FC Cologne scores equally in both | 33.2% | 33.9% | 39.1% | 0.87× | 2.95 |
| FC Cologne scores more in 1st half | 26.5% | 26.3% | 24.4% | 1.08× | 3.81 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV (away no bet) | 58.4% | 57.4% | 62.7% | 0.92× | 1.74 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 41.6% | 42.6% | 37.3% | 1.14× | 2.35 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne even goals | 51.5% | 52.6% | 53.2% | 0.99× | 1.90 |
| FC Cologne odd goals | 48.5% | 47.4% | 46.8% | 1.01× | 2.11 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 78.2% | 81.8% | 75.5% | 1.08× | 1.22 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 21.8% | 18.2% | 24.5% | 0.74× | 5.49 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 72.7% | 67.2% | 72.5% | 0.93× | 1.49 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 27.3% | 32.8% | 27.5% | 1.19× | 3.05 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 63.9% | 60.0% | 66.9% | 0.90× | 1.67 |
| FC Cologne to score 2+ in a row | 41.4% | 38.1% | 34.5% | 1.10× | 2.62 |
| Hamburger SV to score 2+ in a row | 32.1% | 29.0% | 42.3% | 0.69× | 3.45 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 25.0% | 25.2% | 29.7% | 0.85× | 3.97 |
| FC Cologne to score 3+ in a row | 15.6% | 16.3% | 12.8% | 1.27× | 6.12 |
| Hamburger SV to score 3+ in a row | 10.0% | 5.8% | 17.8% | 0.32× | 17.37 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.4% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 1.17× | 8.73 |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 1.08× | 13.50 |
| 2-1 | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 1.08× | 13.50 |
| 2-2 | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 1.16× | 13.50 |
| 0-1 | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 1.25× | 13.50 |
| 0-2 | 6.1% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 1.70× | 13.50 |
| 1-0 | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 1.19× | 13.50 |
| 1-3 | 5.2% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 1.53× | 13.50 |
| Any other score | 4.8% | 1.7% | 5.6% | 0.31× | 58.33 |
| 2-3 | 3.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.65× | 58.33 |
| 2-4 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.57× | 58.34 |
| 3-0 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 0.61× | 58.34 |
| 3-1 | 3.7% | 1.7% | 6.1% | 0.28× | 58.33 |
| 3-2 | 3.2% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 0.50× | 58.34 |
| 3-3 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 0.58× | 58.34 |
| 3-4 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.22× | 58.35 |
| 4-0 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 0.48× | 58.35 |
| 4-1 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 0.78× | 58.35 |
| 4-2 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.57× | 58.35 |
| 4-3 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.83× | 58.35 |
| 4-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.66× | 58.35 |
| 0-0 | 4.1% | 1.7% | 5.8% | 0.30× | 58.33 |
| 0-3 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 0.58× | 58.33 |
| 0-4 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.10× | 58.34 |
| 1-4 | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.00× | 58.34 |
| 2-0 | 4.4% | 1.7% | 6.1% | 0.28× | 58.33 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (2nd half DNB) | 56.9% | 59.5% | 44.1% | 1.35× | 1.68 |
| Hamburger SV (2nd half DNB) | 43.1% | 40.5% | 55.9% | 0.73× | 2.47 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne leading at HT (DNB) | 55.0% | 58.1% | 44.5% | 1.31× | 1.72 |
| Hamburger SV leading at HT (DNB) | 45.0% | 41.9% | 55.5% | 0.75× | 2.39 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV or FC Cologne (12) | 76.8% | 75.5% | 75.2% | 1.00× | 1.32 |
| FC Cologne or draw (X2) | 67.4% | 69.5% | 58.3% | 1.19× | 1.44 |
| Hamburger SV or draw (1X) | 55.8% | 57.0% | 66.3% | 0.86× | 1.76 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne or draw at HT | 72.3% | 74.7% | 63.1% | 1.18× | 1.34 |
| Hamburger SV or draw at HT | 66.1% | 66.2% | 70.5% | 0.94× | 1.51 |
| Hamburger SV or FC Cologne at HT | 61.5% | 62.1% | 66.3% | 0.94× | 1.61 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne or draw (1UP) | 67.4% | 75.9% | 65.0% | 1.17× | 1.32 |
| Hamburger SV or draw (1UP) | 55.8% | 62.5% | 73.4% | 0.85× | 1.60 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne or draw in 2nd half | 70.9% | 73.4% | 62.8% | 1.17× | 1.36 |
| Hamburger SV or FC Cologne in 2nd half | 67.5% | 65.7% | 66.4% | 0.99× | 1.52 |
| Hamburger SV or draw in 2nd half | 61.6% | 63.6% | 70.6% | 0.90× | 1.57 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 58.5% | 58.1% | 53.6% | 1.08× | 1.72 |
| Neither half drawn | 41.5% | 41.9% | 46.4% | 0.90× | 2.39 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (DNB) | 57.6% | 58.1% | 44.7% | 1.30× | 1.72 |
| Hamburger SV (DNB) | 42.4% | 41.9% | 55.3% | 0.76× | 2.39 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to score first | 52.1% | 53.7% | 43.6% | 1.23× | 1.86 |
| Hamburger SV to score first | 43.9% | 41.9% | 50.8% | 0.83× | 2.39 |
| No goal scored | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 0.76× | 22.87 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 63.3% | 56.5% | 59.4% | 0.95× | 1.77 |
| Not both teams to score | 36.7% | 43.5% | 40.6% | 1.07× | 2.30 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 53.0% | 47.2% | 49.8% | 0.95× | 2.12 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 27.6% | 33.4% | 27.8% | 1.20× | 2.99 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 10.4% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 1.26× | 8.10 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 9.0% | 8.3% | 12.9% | 0.64× | 12.03 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 77.7% | 79.6% | 79.9% | 1.00× | 1.26 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 22.3% | 20.4% | 20.1% | 1.01× | 4.91 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 64.7% | 65.7% | 65.3% | 1.01× | 1.52 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 35.3% | 34.3% | 34.7% | 0.99× | 2.92 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 48.6% | 53.8% | 51.6% | 1.04× | 1.86 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 26.5% | 26.6% | 28.1% | 0.95× | 3.76 |
| Both score 1st half only | 16.1% | 15.5% | 13.9% | 1.11× | 6.45 |
| Both score in both halves | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 1.04× | 14.33 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 75.1% | 81.0% | 79.5% | 1.02× | 1.24 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 24.9% | 19.0% | 20.5% | 0.93× | 5.25 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 62.8% | 58.9% | 67.3% | 0.87× | 1.70 |
| A half without a goal | 37.2% | 41.1% | 32.7% | 1.26× | 2.43 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 43.1% | 42.0% | 38.8% | 1.08× | 2.38 |
| 4-6 goals | 35.3% | 35.2% | 40.1% | 0.88× | 2.84 |
| 0-1 goals | 17.1% | 20.3% | 17.6% | 1.15× | 4.94 |
| 7+ goals | 4.5% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 0.49× | 54.73 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to score exactly 1 | 30.6% | 33.8% | 31.8% | 1.06× | 2.96 |
| FC Cologne to score exactly 2 | 26.6% | 27.4% | 22.0% | 1.25× | 3.65 |
| FC Cologne to score 3+ | 25.3% | 27.4% | 21.1% | 1.30× | 3.65 |
| FC Cologne to score exactly 0 | 17.6% | 19.6% | 25.4% | 0.77× | 5.11 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV to score exactly 1 | 33.9% | 32.6% | 29.3% | 1.11× | 3.07 |
| Hamburger SV to score exactly 2 | 24.8% | 23.3% | 22.6% | 1.03× | 4.29 |
| Hamburger SV to score exactly 0 | 23.1% | 23.3% | 20.9% | 1.12× | 4.29 |
| Hamburger SV to score 3+ | 18.2% | 18.8% | 27.5% | 0.69× | 5.31 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 38.5% | 37.9% | 33.8% | 1.12× | 2.64 |
| FC Cologne leading at HT | 33.9% | 33.8% | 29.5% | 1.14× | 2.96 |
| Hamburger SV leading at HT | 27.7% | 25.3% | 36.9% | 0.69× | 3.95 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne -1: 1 | 55.8% | 56.7% | — | — | 1.76 |
| FC Cologne -1: 2 | 23.4% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.25 |
| FC Cologne -1: X | 20.8% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.25 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (0:1) | 67.4% | 65.1% | 58.3% | 1.12× | 1.54 |
| Draw (0:1) | 17.5% | 17.8% | 17.0% | 1.05× | 5.61 |
| Hamburger SV (0:1) | 15.0% | 17.8% | 24.8% | 0.72× | 5.62 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (0:2) | 85.0% | 82.9% | 75.2% | 1.10× | 1.21 |
| Draw (0:2) | 9.5% | 7.7% | 12.9% | 0.59× | 13.01 |
| Hamburger SV (0:2) | 5.6% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 0.64× | 13.05 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (0:3) | 94.4% | 92.7% | 88.0% | 1.05× | 1.08 |
| Draw (0:3) | 3.9% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 0.46× | 42.18 |
| Hamburger SV (0:3) | 1.7% | 2.4% | 7.0% | 0.34× | 42.28 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (0:4) | 98.3% | 98.1% | 93.0% | 1.06× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 1.3% | 1.2% | 5.1% | 0.23× | 82.77 |
| Hamburger SV (0:4) | 0.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 0.60× | 82.87 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV (1:0) | 55.8% | 58.2% | 66.3% | 0.88× | 1.72 |
| FC Cologne (1:0) | 23.4% | 21.8% | 17.5% | 1.25× | 4.59 |
| Draw (1:0) | 20.8% | 21.8% | 16.4% | 1.33× | 4.60 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV (2:0) | 76.6% | 80.3% | 82.5% | 0.97× | 1.25 |
| Draw (2:0) | 13.3% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 1.02× | 9.66 |
| FC Cologne (2:0) | 10.1% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 1.38× | 9.69 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 47.7% | 48.2% | 47.2% | 1.02× | 2.07 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 29.5% | 26.4% | 25.9% | 1.02× | 3.79 |
| Halves equal | 22.9% | 24.3% | 27.0% | 0.90× | 4.11 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV to concede | 82.4% | 80.8% | 74.6% | 1.08× | 1.24 |
| Hamburger SV clean sheet | 17.6% | 19.2% | 25.4% | 0.76× | 5.21 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV to concede in 1st half | 52.5% | 55.3% | 45.6% | 1.21× | 1.81 |
| Hamburger SV clean sheet in 1st half | 47.5% | 44.7% | 54.4% | 0.82× | 2.24 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV to concede in 2nd half | 63.0% | 59.7% | 56.7% | 1.05× | 1.68 |
| Hamburger SV clean sheet in 2nd half | 37.0% | 40.3% | 43.3% | 0.93× | 2.48 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV under 3.5 goals | 93.9% | 92.2% | 88.5% | 1.04× | 1.08 |
| Hamburger SV under 2.5 goals | 81.8% | 82.2% | 72.5% | 1.13× | 1.22 |
| Hamburger SV over 0.5 goals | 76.9% | 77.7% | 79.1% | 0.98× | 1.29 |
| Hamburger SV under 1.5 goals | 57.0% | 58.7% | 50.1% | 1.17× | 1.70 |
| Hamburger SV over 1.5 goals | 43.0% | 41.3% | 49.9% | 0.83× | 2.42 |
| Hamburger SV under 0.5 goals | 23.1% | 22.3% | 20.9% | 1.07× | 4.48 |
| Hamburger SV over 2.5 goals | 18.2% | 17.8% | 27.5% | 0.65× | 5.61 |
| Hamburger SV over 3.5 goals | 6.1% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 0.67× | 12.88 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV under 1.5 in 1st half | 86.4% | 89.9% | 80.8% | 1.11× | 1.11 |
| Hamburger SV under 0.5 in 1st half | 52.6% | 50.2% | 48.1% | 1.04× | 1.99 |
| Hamburger SV over 0.5 in 1st half | 47.4% | 49.8% | 51.9% | 0.96× | 2.01 |
| Hamburger SV over 1.5 in 1st half | 13.6% | 10.1% | 19.2% | 0.52× | 9.92 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV scores equally in both | 37.0% | 37.5% | 36.4% | 1.03× | 2.67 |
| Hamburger SV scores more in 2nd half | 36.8% | 37.5% | 38.3% | 0.98× | 2.67 |
| Hamburger SV scores more in 1st half | 26.2% | 27.8% | 25.5% | 1.09× | 3.59 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (home no bet) | 65.6% | 63.9% | 57.6% | 1.11× | 1.57 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 34.4% | 36.1% | 42.4% | 0.85× | 2.77 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV even goals | 52.7% | 50.7% | 52.1% | 0.97× | 1.97 |
| Hamburger SV odd goals | 47.3% | 49.3% | 47.9% | 1.03× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 25.0% | 28.8% | 23.0% | 1.25× | 3.47 |
| HT 0-1 | 18.6% | 18.8% | 16.6% | 1.14× | 5.31 |
| HT 1-0 | 16.0% | 18.8% | 19.5% | 0.96× | 5.33 |
| HT 1-1 | 11.9% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 1.11× | 9.28 |
| HT 0-2 | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 0.97× | 14.09 |
| Any other HT score | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 1.08× | 14.09 |
| HT 2-0 | 5.2% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 0.73× | 14.11 |
| HT 1-2 | 4.4% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 0.68× | 42.61 |
| HT 2-1 | 3.8% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 0.56× | 42.65 |
| HT 2-2 | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.87× | 42.82 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne at HT / FC Cologne at FT | 26.2% | 26.6% | 20.5% | 1.30× | 3.76 |
| Hamburger SV at HT / Hamburger SV at FT | 19.0% | 16.8% | 28.3% | 0.59× | 5.96 |
| Draw at HT / FC Cologne at FT | 14.8% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 1.29× | 7.88 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 12.5% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 0.92× | 7.90 |
| Draw at HT / Hamburger SV at FT | 11.2% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 1.21× | 7.91 |
| Hamburger SV at HT / Draw at FT | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 1.18× | 16.44 |
| FC Cologne at HT / Draw at FT | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 1.00× | 16.44 |
| Hamburger SV at HT / FC Cologne at FT | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 0.92× | 29.08 |
| FC Cologne at HT / Hamburger SV at FT | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.05× | 29.11 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to score last | 52.1% | 51.9% | 44.5% | 1.16× | 1.93 |
| Hamburger SV to score last | 43.9% | 40.3% | 49.8% | 0.81× | 2.48 |
| No goal scored | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 0.76× | 22.87 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 95.9% | 95.6% | 94.2% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| FC Cologne to lead by 1 at any time | 62.1% | 61.2% | 52.8% | 1.16× | 1.63 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 53.1% | 50.7% | 55.9% | 0.91× | 1.97 |
| Hamburger SV to lead by 1 at any time | 52.3% | 50.7% | 59.7% | 0.85× | 1.97 |
| FC Cologne to lead by 2 at any time | 31.3% | 29.5% | 23.6% | 1.25× | 3.39 |
| Hamburger SV to lead by 2 at any time | 22.2% | 19.6% | 33.1% | 0.59× | 5.10 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 20.7% | 19.6% | 25.9% | 0.75× | 5.11 |
| FC Cologne to lead by 3 at any time | 13.0% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 1.02× | 9.54 |
| Hamburger SV to lead by 3 at any time | 7.8% | 6.7% | 15.8% | 0.43× | 14.83 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 85.4% | 87.4% | 83.5% | 1.05× | 1.14 |
| 2-6 goals | 78.4% | 78.7% | 78.8% | 1.00× | 1.27 |
| 1-4 goals | 74.0% | 72.4% | 72.4% | 1.00× | 1.38 |
| 2-5 goals | 72.4% | 72.4% | 71.6% | 1.01× | 1.38 |
| 2-4 goals | 60.9% | 63.4% | 60.5% | 1.05× | 1.58 |
| 3-6 goals | 57.6% | 59.1% | 59.0% | 1.00× | 1.69 |
| 1-3 goals | 56.2% | 59.1% | 50.7% | 1.16× | 1.69 |
| 3-5 goals | 51.5% | 53.1% | 51.8% | 1.03× | 1.88 |
| 2-3 goals | 43.1% | 43.5% | 38.8% | 1.12× | 2.30 |
| 3-4 goals | 40.1% | 43.5% | 40.7% | 1.07× | 2.30 |
| 4-6 goals | 35.3% | 39.2% | 40.1% | 0.98× | 2.55 |
| 1-2 goals | 33.9% | 35.2% | 31.8% | 1.11× | 2.84 |
| 4-5 goals | 29.2% | 30.3% | 32.9% | 0.92× | 3.30 |
| 5-6 goals | 17.5% | 18.8% | 18.4% | 1.02× | 5.32 |
| 7+ goals | 4.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 0.68× | 39.16 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne never behind | 43.6% | 48.7% | 40.3% | 1.21× | 2.06 |
| Hamburger SV never behind | 33.8% | 36.1% | 47.2% | 0.76× | 2.77 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.9% | 50.9% | 44.9% | 1.13× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.1% | 49.1% | 55.1% | 0.89× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 53.1% | 51.9% | 52.5% | 0.99× | 1.93 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 46.9% | 48.1% | 47.5% | 1.01× | 2.08 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 51.3% | 52.0% | 53.0% | 0.98× | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 48.7% | 48.0% | 47.0% | 1.02× | 2.09 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 95.9% | 95.4% | 94.2% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 89.5% | 87.6% | 89.1% | 0.98× | 1.14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% | 82.3% | 82.4% | 1.00× | 1.22 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 78.0% | 77.4% | 78.0% | 0.99× | 1.29 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.0% | 61.7% | 62.6% | 0.99× | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 60.2% | 61.7% | 56.3% | 1.10× | 1.62 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.8% | 38.3% | 43.7% | 0.88× | 2.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.0% | 38.3% | 37.4% | 1.02× | 2.61 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 22.0% | 22.6% | 22.0% | 1.03× | 4.42 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17.1% | 17.7% | 17.6% | 1.00× | 5.65 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 10.5% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 1.13× | 8.08 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 0.79× | 21.86 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 95.3% | 97.2% | 96.0% | 1.01× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 88.1% | 86.7% | 87.7% | 0.99× | 1.15 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 78.4% | 75.9% | 78.0% | 0.97× | 1.32 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 73.3% | 72.4% | 71.9% | 1.01× | 1.38 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 51.2% | 51.9% | 53.8% | 0.96× | 1.93 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 48.8% | 48.1% | 46.2% | 1.04× | 2.08 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 26.7% | 27.6% | 28.1% | 0.98× | 3.63 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 21.6% | 24.1% | 22.0% | 1.10× | 4.15 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 11.9% | 13.3% | 12.3% | 1.08× | 7.54 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 4.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 0.69× | 35.73 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 83.7% | 86.1% | 85.0% | 1.01× | 1.16 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 75.0% | 71.3% | 77.0% | 0.93× | 1.40 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 59.7% | 63.4% | 58.8% | 1.08× | 1.58 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 40.3% | 36.6% | 41.3% | 0.89× | 2.74 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 25.0% | 28.7% | 23.0% | 1.25× | 3.48 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 16.3% | 13.9% | 15.0% | 0.93× | 7.20 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 83.7% | 82.8% | 84.5% | 0.98× | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 72.7% | 77.7% | 73.3% | 1.06× | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 54.2% | 53.2% | 55.8% | 0.95× | 1.88 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 45.8% | 46.8% | 44.2% | 1.06× | 2.14 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 27.3% | 22.3% | 26.7% | 0.83× | 4.49 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 16.3% | 17.2% | 15.5% | 1.11× | 5.83 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV not to score in both halves | 73.5% | 74.2% | 64.7% | 1.15× | 1.35 |
| FC Cologne not to score in both halves | 67.0% | 69.8% | 72.2% | 0.97× | 1.43 |
| FC Cologne to score in both halves | 33.0% | 30.2% | 27.8% | 1.09× | 3.31 |
| Hamburger SV to score in both halves | 26.5% | 25.8% | 35.3% | 0.73× | 3.88 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 63.3% | 60.1% | 59.4% | 1.01× | 1.66 |
| Only FC Cologne scores | 19.1% | 16.0% | 15.3% | 1.05× | 6.24 |
| Only Hamburger SV scores | 13.5% | 11.0% | 19.8% | 0.56× | 9.07 |
| Neither team scores | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 0.81× | 21.52 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.3% | 22.6% | 19.0% | 1.19× | 4.43 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 20.9% | 22.6% | 20.0% | 1.13× | 4.43 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 17.8% | 17.5% | 21.8% | 0.80× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 13.0% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 1.01× | 8.25 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 11.4% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 1.08× | 8.25 |
| 6 or more goals | 10.5% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 1.11× | 8.26 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 0.78× | 22.35 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 34.7% | 36.1% | 35.9% | 1.01× | 2.77 |
| No goals in 1st half | 25.0% | 28.5% | 23.0% | 1.24× | 3.50 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 24.0% | 21.7% | 26.4% | 0.82× | 4.62 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 16.3% | 15.3% | 15.0% | 1.02× | 6.56 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 54.2% | 51.5% | 55.8% | 0.92× | 1.94 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 29.6% | 29.9% | 28.9% | 1.04× | 3.34 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 16.3% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 1.11× | 5.84 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV not to win both halves | 92.0% | 94.0% | 83.9% | 1.12× | 1.06 |
| FC Cologne not to win both halves | 87.0% | 88.0% | 90.6% | 0.97× | 1.14 |
| FC Cologne to win both halves | 13.0% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 1.28× | 8.33 |
| Hamburger SV to win both halves | 8.0% | 6.0% | 16.1% | 0.37× | 16.63 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to win either half | 59.2% | 59.6% | 49.5% | 1.20× | 1.68 |
| Hamburger SV to win neither half | 51.3% | 54.6% | 42.0% | 1.30× | 1.83 |
| Hamburger SV to win either half | 48.7% | 45.4% | 58.0% | 0.78× | 2.20 |
| FC Cologne to win neither half | 40.8% | 40.4% | 50.5% | 0.80× | 2.47 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV not to win to nil | 86.5% | 88.1% | 80.2% | 1.10× | 1.14 |
| FC Cologne not to win to nil | 80.9% | 83.1% | 84.7% | 0.98× | 1.20 |
| FC Cologne to win to nil | 19.1% | 16.9% | 15.3% | 1.11× | 5.91 |
| Hamburger SV to win to nil | 13.5% | 11.9% | 19.8% | 0.60× | 8.42 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 23.2% | 24.1% | 24.8% | 0.97× | 4.15 |
| FC Cologne by 1 | 20.8% | 24.1% | 16.4% | 1.47× | 4.15 |
| Hamburger SV by 1 | 17.5% | 17.0% | 17.0% | 1.00× | 5.88 |
| FC Cologne by 2 | 13.3% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 1.16× | 8.49 |
| FC Cologne by 3+ | 10.1% | 11.8% | 7.5% | 1.57× | 8.49 |
| Hamburger SV by 2 | 9.5% | 7.2% | 12.9% | 0.56× | 13.87 |
| Hamburger SV by 3+ | 5.6% | 7.2% | 12.0% | 0.60× | 13.89 |
Reading the xG timeline
Expected goals by minute
Reading the shot map
Shot map
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
|
Thijs Dallinga | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Linton Maina |
| 18' |
|
Luka Lochoshvili | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Linton Maina |
| 25' |
|
Mikey Moore | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luka Lochoshvili |
| 26' |
|
Mikey Moore | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
|
Said El Mala | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gideon Mensah |
| 31' |
|
Fábio Vieira | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 34' |
|
Fábio Vieira | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
|
Said El Mala | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 37' |
|
Thijs Dallinga | 0.65 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Gideon Mensah |
| 43' |
|
Nicolás Capaldo | 0.54 | From Corner | — | Goal | Albert Grønbæk |
| 44' |
|
Linton Maina | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Thijs Dallinga |
| 46' |
|
Mikey Moore | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thijs Dallinga |
| 46' |
|
Thijs Dallinga | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Said El Mala |
| 48' |
|
Yussuf Poulsen | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Albert Grønbæk |
| 51' |
|
Said El Mala | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 54' |
|
Nicolai Remberg | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Albert Grønbæk |
| 59' |
|
Fábio Vieira | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yussuf Poulsen |
| 68' |
|
Patson Daka | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
|
Yussuf Poulsen | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | David Møller Wolfe |
| 70' |
|
Ragnar Ache | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Linton Maina |
| 70' |
|
Nicolai Remberg | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Patson Daka |
| 72' |
|
Linton Maina | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tom Krauß |
| 73' |
|
Luka Lochoshvili | 0.12 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Said El Mala |
| 73' |
|
Said El Mala | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 74' |
|
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tom Krauß |
| 75' |
|
Ragnar Ache | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Said El Mala |
| 77' |
|
Fábio Vieira | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 85' |
|
Patson Daka | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Fábio Vieira |
| 87' |
|
Yussuf Poulsen | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fábio Vieira |
| 89' |
|
Ragnar Ache | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Goal | Ellyes Skhiri |
Players
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Capaldo DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Fábio Vieira AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Warmed Omari DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Jordan Torunarigha DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| David Møller Wolfe DML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.83 |
| Zakaria El Ouahdi DMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Albert Grønbæk AMC | 69 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.97 | 0.37 |
| Terem Igobor Moffi FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yussuf Poulsen Sub | 42 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.11 | 0.03 | 1.15 |
| Patson Daka Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.01 | 0.28 |
| Louis Lemke Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Bakery Jatta Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin Adeline Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikey Moore AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Luka Lochoshvili DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.02 | 0.79 |
| Said El Mala AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.32 | 1.00 |
| Ellyes Skhiri DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1.19 |
| Jahmai Simpson-Pusey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Linton Maina AMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.26 | 0.90 |
| Tom Krauß DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.89 |
| Alessio Castro-Montes DR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Thijs Dallinga FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.88 | 0.42 | 1.29 |
| Gideon Mensah DL | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| Ragnar Ache Sub | 24 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Borna Sosa Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.44 |
| Gian-Luca Waldschmidt Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Marius Bülter Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |