Hamburger SV v FC Heidenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 20 September 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 06:02 UTC

Hamburger SV

2–1

3.32 – 2.64 xG

FC Heidenheim

Shots

22 – 21

On target

9 – 7

Shots in box

15 – 16

xG per shot

0.15 – 0.13

Set-piece xG

1.32 – 0.87

Goals − xG

-1.38 – -1.66

AI prediction

dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Hamburger SV win

37.8%

Draw

29.2%

FC Heidenheim win

33.0%

382933

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Hamburger SV have scored 11 from 11.2 expected and conceded 24 from 25.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LDLLLWWDLL last 10 scored 11 from 11.2 xG conceded 24 from 25.8 xG

FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LLDDWLWDWL last 10 scored 19 from 17.3 xG conceded 19 from 18.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
dc-xg-oos	382933	1.14–1.04	1-1 13%	37%	44%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Hamburger SV 3.38 xGFC Heidenheim 2.66 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Hamburger SV attacking right FC Heidenheim attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
5'	Hamburger SV	Giorgi Gocholeishvili	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Jean-Luc Dompe
10'	FC Heidenheim	Luca Kerber	0.08	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Jonas Föhrenbach
11'	FC Heidenheim	Jan Schöppner	0.11	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Sirlord Conteh
12'	FC Heidenheim	Niklas Dorsch	0.03	From Corner	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Arijon Ibrahimovic
16'	Hamburger SV	Ransford Königsdörffer	0.09	Set Piece	—	Saved Shot	Jean-Luc Dompe
17'	FC Heidenheim	Arijon Ibrahimovic	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Sirlord Conteh
19'	Hamburger SV	Daniel Elfadli	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
19'	Hamburger SV	Fábio Vieira	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Warmed Omari
24'	Hamburger SV	Giorgi Gocholeishvili	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Ransford Königsdörffer
26'	Hamburger SV	Luka Vuskovic	0.43	From Corner	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Miro Muheim
26'	Hamburger SV	Ransford Königsdörffer	0.31	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Fábio Vieira
28'	Hamburger SV	Jean-Luc Dompe	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Miro Muheim
32'	FC Heidenheim	Mikkel Kaufmann	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Sirlord Conteh
33'	FC Heidenheim	Mikkel Kaufmann	0.11	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Jonas Föhrenbach
33'	Hamburger SV	Fábio Vieira	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
40'	Hamburger SV	Jean-Luc Dompe	0.09	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
40'	Hamburger SV	Rayan Philippe	0.62	Set Piece	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
41'	Hamburger SV	Luka Vuskovic	0.08	Set Piece	Right Foot	Goal	—
42'	FC Heidenheim	Arijon Ibrahimovic	0.36	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Mikkel Kaufmann
45'	FC Heidenheim	Luca Kerber	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Sirlord Conteh
47'	FC Heidenheim	Mikkel Kaufmann	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
51'	Hamburger SV	Jean-Luc Dompe	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Miro Muheim
51'	Hamburger SV	Nicolai Remberg	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Miro Muheim
53'	FC Heidenheim	Arijon Ibrahimovic	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Niklas Dorsch
53'	FC Heidenheim	Sirlord Conteh	0.40	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
58'	Hamburger SV	Rayan Philippe	0.59	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Fábio Vieira
60'	Hamburger SV	Giorgi Gocholeishvili	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Ransford Königsdörffer
61'	Hamburger SV	Ransford Königsdörffer	0.12	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
65'	Hamburger SV	Jean-Luc Dompe	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Fábio Vieira
66'	Hamburger SV	Fábio Vieira	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
68'	FC Heidenheim	Stefan Schimmer	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Arijon Ibrahimovic
69'	FC Heidenheim	Niklas Dorsch	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
71'	Hamburger SV	Ransford Königsdörffer	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Rayan Philippe
76'	Hamburger SV	Fábio Vieira	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Albert Sambi Lokonga
82'	FC Heidenheim	Patrick Mainka	0.09	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Yannik Wagner
83'	FC Heidenheim	Stefan Schimmer	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Adrian Beck
84'	FC Heidenheim	Adam Kölle	0.12	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Yannik Wagner
86'	FC Heidenheim	Stefan Schimmer	0.34	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Omar Traoré
92'	FC Heidenheim	Adam Kölle	0.49	From Corner	Left Foot	Goal	Omar Traoré
92'	FC Heidenheim	Omar Traoré	0.04	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
92'	FC Heidenheim	Yannik Wagner	0.02	From Corner	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Marnon Busch
93'	Hamburger SV	Robert Glatzel	0.37	Open Play	Right Foot	Shot On Post	Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit
98'	FC Heidenheim	Omar Traoré	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—

Players

FC Heidenheim

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Sirlord Conteh AMC	90	0	0	1	4	0.40	0.37	0.77
Patrick Mainka DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.09	0.00	0.02
Niklas Dorsch MC	90	0	0	2	1	0.07	0.02	0.76
Omar Traoré DR	90	0	1	2	2	0.05	0.83	0.49
Diant Ramaj GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.33
Jonas Föhrenbach DL	90	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.19	0.28
Arijon Ibrahimovic AMC	81	0	0	3	2	0.45	0.07	0.61
Mikkel Kaufmann FW	81	0	0	3	1	0.24	0.36	0.61
Jan Schöppner MC	71	0	0	1	0	0.11	0.00	0.27
Benedikt Gimber DC	71	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.13
Luca Kerber MC	57	0	0	2	0	0.18	0.00	0.19
Adrian Beck Sub	33	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.04	0.17
Stefan Schimmer Sub	19	0	0	3	0	0.42	0.00	0.42
Marnon Busch Sub	19	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.02	0.46
Adam Kölle Sub	9	1	0	2	0	0.61	0.00	0.12
Yannik Wagner Sub	9	0	0	1	2	0.02	0.22	0.17

Hamburger SV

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Luka Vuskovic DC	90	1	0	2	0	0.52	0.00	0.71
Daniel Elfadli DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.06	0.00	0.16
Nicolai Remberg MC	90	0	0	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.11
Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.12
Warmed Omari DC	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.08	0.16
Miro Muheim DML	90	0	0	0	4	0.00	0.54	0.19
Giorgi Gocholeishvili DMR	89	0	0	3	0	0.11	0.00	0.77
Ransford Königsdörffer FW	88	0	0	4	2	0.57	0.06	0.55
Fábio Vieira MC	82	0	1	4	3	0.24	1.00	1.35
Rayan Philippe FWR	77	1	0	2	1	1.20	0.05	0.69
Jean-Luc Dompe FWL	77	0	0	4	2	0.29	0.15	0.29
Fabio Baldé Sub	13	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Albert Sambi Lokonga Sub	13	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.02	0.02
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit Sub	8	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.37	0.37
Robert Glatzel Sub	2	0	0	1	0	0.37	0.00	0.37
William Mikelbrencis Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Hamburger SV v FC Heidenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

What the chances say

What the model said

Expected goals by minute

Shot map

Every shot

Players

FC Heidenheim

Hamburger SV

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