Hamburger SV v Freiburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 10 May 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 5
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 2
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.12
Goals − xG
+0.98 – +1.42
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hamburger SV win
32.6%
Draw
25.8%
Freiburg win
41.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hamburger SV have scored 12 from 11.8 expected and conceded 20 from 18.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWDLLLWWWL last 10
scored 12
from 11.8 xG
conceded 20
from 18.8 xG
Freiburg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.6 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DLWWWWDWLL last 10
scored 23
from 16.4 xG
conceded 14
from 14.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.23–1.43 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–1.45 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 57% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hamburger SV 2.02 xGFreiburg 0.58 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hamburger SV attacking right
Freiburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Hamburger SV |
Bakery Jatta | 0.67 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Albert Grønbæk |
| 15' |
 Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lukas Kübler |
| 18' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Nicolai Remberg |
| 19' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolás Capaldo |
| 20' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Albert Grønbæk |
| 28' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Albert Grønbæk |
| 29' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Fábio Vieira |
| 34' |
Freiburg |
Lucas Höler | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Igor Matanovic |
| 35' |
Hamburger SV |
Albert Grønbæk | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matthias Ginter |
| 46' |
Hamburger SV |
Otto Stange | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolás Capaldo |
| 49' |
Freiburg |
Lukas Kübler | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Igor Matanovic |
| 51' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Albert Grønbæk |
| 56' |
Hamburger SV |
Otto Stange | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolás Capaldo |
| 63' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 66' |
Hamburger SV |
Fabio Baldé | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nicolai Remberg |
| 86' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Goal | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 91' |
Hamburger SV |
Rayan Philippe | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolai Remberg |
| 94' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolai Remberg |
Players
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Matanovic FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.55 | 0.03 | 0.46 |
| Lucas Höler AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maximilian Eggestein DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Vincenzo Grifo AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| Philipp Treu DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.43 |
| Lukas Kübler DR | 71 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| Bruno Ogbus DC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste AMR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Johan Manzambi DMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Nicolas Höfler Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordy Makengo Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Derry Scherhant Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Philipp Lienhart Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Jung Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ransford Königsdörffer AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Fábio Vieira AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 0.19 |
| Luka Vuskovic DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Albert Grønbæk DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.01 | 1.00 | 1.29 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Warmed Omari DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Nicolás Capaldo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Bakery Jatta DMR | 68 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Otto Stange FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Rayan Philippe Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Fabio Baldé Sub | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Yussuf Poulsen Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Louis Lemke Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shafiq Nandja Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |