Hamburger SV v RasenBallsport Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 13
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
3 – 10
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.76
Goals − xG
+0.18 – -0.29
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hamburger SV win
26.4%
Draw
25.7%
RasenBallsport Leipzig win
47.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hamburger SV have scored 12 from 11.8 expected and conceded 20 from 18.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWDLLLWWWL last 10
scored 12
from 11.8 xG
conceded 20
from 18.8 xG
RasenBallsport Leipzig have scored 24 from 22.6 expected and conceded 20 from 21.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWLWLWLWLW last 10
scored 24
from 22.6 xG
conceded 20
from 21.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.24–1.73 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.48–1.63 | 1-1 11% | 60% | 62% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hamburger SV 0.82 xGRasenBallsport Leipzig 2.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hamburger SV attacking right
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Damion Downs |
| 7' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | David Raum |
| 8' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
Hamburger SV |
Damion Downs | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luka Vuskovic |
| 21' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | William Mikelbrencis |
| 23' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 25' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Brajan Gruda | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rômulo |
| 26' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 26' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 30' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Nicolas Seiwald | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bote Baku |
| 37' |
Hamburger SV |
Damion Downs | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ransford Königsdörffer |
| 39' |
Hamburger SV |
Nicolai Remberg | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | William Mikelbrencis |
| 42' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 43' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Brajan Gruda | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rômulo |
| 49' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Rômulo |
| 61' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 73' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Ezechiel Banzuzi | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 77' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Ezechiel Banzuzi | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 94' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rômulo FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1.27 | 0.56 | 1.38 |
| Yan Diomande FWR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.45 | 0.49 | 1.27 |
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| David Raum DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1.09 |
| Castello Lukeba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Bote Baku DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.47 |
| Maarten Vandevoordt GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Brajan Gruda MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Antonio Nusa FWL | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Tidiam Gomis Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Benjamin Henrichs Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Conrad Harder Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fábio Vieira MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Luka Vuskovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jordan Torunarigha DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| William Mikelbrencis DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| Miro Muheim DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Damion Downs FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 0.16 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.63 |
| Philip Otele AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Warmed Omari Sub | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Yussuf Poulsen Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás Capaldo DC | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Luc Dompe Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rayan Philippe Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |