Hamburger SV v Union Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 12
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
11 – 10
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.19 – 0.86
Goals − xG
+0.80 – -0.19
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hamburger SV win
30.7%
Draw
30.4%
Union Berlin win
38.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hamburger SV have scored 13 from 12.9 expected and conceded 21 from 19.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWDLLLWWW last 10
scored 13
from 12.9 xG
conceded 21
from 19.9 xG
Union Berlin have scored 15 from 13.8 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDWWDLLLWD last 10
scored 15
from 13.8 xG
conceded 23
from 23.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.14–1.31 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.13–1.14 | 1-1 13% | 39% | 46% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hamburger SV 2.20 xGUnion Berlin 2.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hamburger SV attacking right
Union Berlin attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Hamburger SV |
Bakery Jatta | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Philip Otele |
| 2' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Philip Otele |
| 3' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Philip Otele |
| 10' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolai Remberg |
| 14' |
 Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Derrick Köhn |
| 15' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Philip Otele |
| 27' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 34' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Robert Glatzel |
| 38' |
Union Berlin |
Rani Khedira | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Derrick Köhn |
| 46' |
Hamburger SV |
Nicolás Capaldo | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bakery Jatta |
| 46' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rani Khedira |
| 55' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fábio Vieira |
| 62' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Tim Skarke |
| 63' |
Union Berlin |
Tim Skarke | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Livan Burcu |
| 67' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 70' |
Union Berlin |
Derrick Köhn | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 79' |
Hamburger SV |
Jean-Luc Dompe | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolai Remberg |
| 81' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Giorgi Gocholeishvili |
| 83' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Oliver Burke |
| 84' |
Hamburger SV |
Miro Muheim | 0.24 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yussuf Poulsen |
| 87' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Livan Burcu |
| 88' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.63 | Open Play | — | Goal | Oliver Burke |
Players
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Ilic FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1.13 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Derrick Köhn DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christopher Trimmel DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Aljoscha Kemlein MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Stanley N'Soki DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Rani Khedira MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.35 | 0.48 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ilyas Ansah AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Livan Burcu Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Alex Kral Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Oliver Burke Sub | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| Andras Schafer Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ransford Königsdörffer FWR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1.30 | 0.00 | 1.49 |
| Miro Muheim DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Nicolás Capaldo DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Luka Vuskovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Fábio Vieira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 1.26 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.98 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jordan Torunarigha DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bakery Jatta DMR | 78 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| Philip Otele FWL | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.17 |
| Robert Glatzel FW | 76 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| Jean-Luc Dompe Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Yussuf Poulsen Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Giorgi Gocholeishvili Sub | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Daniel Elfadli Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| William Mikelbrencis Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |