Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 30 November 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 14
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 7
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.09
Goals − xG
+0.78 – -0.12
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hamburger SV win
21.7%
Draw
24.2%
VfB Stuttgart win
54.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hamburger SV have scored 12 from 11.8 expected and conceded 20 from 18.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWDLLLWWWL last 10
scored 12
from 11.8 xG
conceded 20
from 18.8 xG
VfB Stuttgart are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDLWLLWLL last 10
scored 18
from 22.3 xG
conceded 19
from 24.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.07–1.81 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.32–1.80 | 1-1 11% | 60% | 61% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hamburger SV 1.22 xGVfB Stuttgart 1.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hamburger SV attacking right
VfB Stuttgart attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Badredine Bouanani | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joshua Vagnoman |
| 11' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nikolas Nartey | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Chema Andres |
| 16' |
 Hamburger SV |
Robert Glatzel | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit |
| 19' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Führich |
| 24' |
Hamburger SV |
Rayan Philippe | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luka Vuskovic |
| 33' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit |
| 43' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chema Andres | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Hamburger SV |
Miro Muheim | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolai Remberg |
| 47' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Badredine Bouanani | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nikolas Nartey |
| 47' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Pascal Stenzel | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 48' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ramon Hendriks | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 53' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 53' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 56' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 61' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chema Andres |
| 68' |
Hamburger SV |
Giorgi Gocholeishvili | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 68' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 76' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 79' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Badredine Bouanani |
| 87' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chema Andres | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 90' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lazar Jovanovic |
| 93' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Fabio Baldé |
Players
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chema Andres MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.33 |
| Badredine Bouanani FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.25 |
| Bilal El Khannouss AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 0.37 |
| Ramon Hendriks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Joshua Vagnoman DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Ameen Al Dakhil DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Nikolas Nartey MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| Deniz Undav Sub | 51 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Pascal Stenzel DML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jamie Leweling Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Chris Führich AMC | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Angelo Stiller Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Lazar Jovanovic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Vuskovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Miro Muheim DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| Nicolás Capaldo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.24 |
| Jordan Torunarigha DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit FWL | 84 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Rayan Philippe FWR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| William Mikelbrencis DMR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer Sub | 57 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Robert Glatzel FW | 33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Fábio Vieira Sub | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Giorgi Gocholeishvili Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Fabio Baldé Sub | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.57 |
| Guilherme Ramos Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |