Heart of Midlothian v Aberdeen — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 2 December 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Heart of Midlothian

19:45 UTC

Aberdeen

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 897h before kick-off

Heart of Midlothian win

69.7%

model 67.3%

Draw

19.3%

model 19.8%

Aberdeen win

11.0%

model 12.9%

701911

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (176 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 12.9%
2-0 12.9%
2-1 9.6%
1-1 9.4%
3-0 8.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.0%	Under 2.5	48.0%
BTTS yes	45.2%	BTTS no	54.8%
Heart of Midlothian 1+	86.6%	Heart of Midlothian 2+	59.7%
Aberdeen 1+	52.3%	Aberdeen 2+	17.0%

Expected goals 2.01 – 0.74. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

77/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Heart of Midlothian (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 46%

68.7% fair odds 1.46

strong signal · 1169 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Aberdeen under 1.5 goals

Away goals O/U · usually 63%

82.5% fair odds 1.21

strong signal · 1052 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Heart of Midlothian carry the stronger rating, 1695 Elo against 1399.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Heart of Midlothian have an estimated 69.7% win probability, against 19.3% for the draw and 11.0% for Aberdeen. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.01 for Heart of Midlothian and 0.74 for Aberdeen.

Why Heart of Midlothian

Heart of Midlothian carry the stronger rating, 1695 Elo against 1399. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 19.3%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Aberdeen can win

Nothing in the data singles out Aberdeen.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Heart of Midlothian, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Aberdeen, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Heart of Midlothian: 34% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Aberdeen: 45% possession, 9.6 shots a match, 18.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Heart of Midlothian are the model's most likely outcome at 69.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 12.9%. Confidence 77/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	672013	2.01–0.74	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	632215	1.79–0.73	1-0 14%	46%	43%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian to win	62.8%	58.2%	45.9%	1.27×	1.72
Draw	22.3%	24.5%	23.3%	1.05×	4.09
Aberdeen to win	15.0%	13.5%	31.0%	0.44×	7.41

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian & not both score	40.1%	40.0%	27.5%	1.46×	2.50
Heart of Midlothian & both teams score	22.6%	21.8%	18.6%	1.17×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	14.4%	13.3%	17.8%	0.75×	7.54
Aberdeen & not both score	8.8%	8.3%	14.9%	0.56×	12.00
Draw & not both score	7.9%	8.3%	5.8%	1.44×	12.00
Aberdeen & both teams score	6.2%	8.3%	16.3%	0.51×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian & over 1.5	48.3%	45.1%	36.6%	1.23×	2.22
Heart of Midlothian & under 3.5	44.4%	40.3%	30.2%	1.34×	2.48
Heart of Midlothian & over 2.5	35.5%	34.9%	28.1%	1.24×	2.87
Heart of Midlothian & under 2.5	27.3%	26.1%	18.0%	1.45×	3.84
Heart of Midlothian & over 3.5	18.4%	18.0%	15.9%	1.13×	5.55
Draw & under 2.5	18.3%	18.0%	14.9%	1.21×	5.55
Draw & under 3.5	18.3%	18.0%	14.9%	1.21×	5.55
Heart of Midlothian & under 1.5	14.5%	12.8%	9.5%	1.35×	7.79
Draw & over 1.5	14.4%	12.8%	17.8%	0.72×	7.79
Aberdeen & under 3.5	12.6%	12.8%	22.5%	0.57×	7.79
Aberdeen & over 1.5	9.0%	7.9%	24.4%	0.32×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	7.9%	7.9%	5.8%	1.37×	12.63
Aberdeen & under 2.5	8.2%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.63
Aberdeen & under 1.5	6.0%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Aberdeen & over 2.5	6.8%	7.9%	20.5%	0.39×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	4.0%	4.8%	8.7%	0.55×	20.82
Draw & over 3.5	4.0%	4.8%	8.7%	0.55×	20.82
Aberdeen & over 3.5	2.4%	4.8%	8.7%	0.55×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian (1UP)	72.8%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
Aberdeen (1UP)	29.9%	27.1%	—	—	3.68

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian (2UP)	62.8%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Aberdeen (2UP)	15.0%	14.2%	—	—	7.05

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian to win 2nd half	49.5%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
2nd half drawn	34.8%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Aberdeen to win 2nd half	15.8%	17.7%	—	—	5.64

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aberdeen under 1.5 in 2nd half	92.7%	91.8%	—	—	1.09
Aberdeen under 0.5 in 2nd half	64.4%	60.4%	—	—	1.66
Aberdeen over 0.5 in 2nd half	35.6%	39.6%	—	—	2.53
Aberdeen over 1.5 in 2nd half	7.3%	8.2%	—	—	12.19

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian under 1.5 in 2nd half	72.8%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Heart of Midlothian over 0.5 in 2nd half	64.0%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Heart of Midlothian under 0.5 in 2nd half	36.0%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Heart of Midlothian over 1.5 in 2nd half	27.2%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian (+0.5)	85.0%	88.4%	69.0%	1.28×	1.13
Aberdeen (+2.5)	82.9%	82.6%	87.8%	0.94×	1.21
Aberdeen (+1.5)	63.4%	63.0%	73.6%	0.86×	1.59
Heart of Midlothian (-0.5)	62.8%	62.9%	45.9%	1.37×	1.59
Aberdeen (+0.5)	37.2%	37.1%	54.1%	0.68×	2.70
Heart of Midlothian (-1.5)	36.6%	37.0%	26.4%	1.40×	2.70
Heart of Midlothian (-2.5)	17.1%	17.4%	12.2%	1.43×	5.74
Aberdeen (-0.5)	15.0%	11.6%	31.0%	0.37×	8.66

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aberdeen to concede	83.3%	81.5%	79.5%	1.02×	1.23
Aberdeen clean sheet	16.7%	18.5%	20.5%	0.91×	5.40

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aberdeen to concede in 1st half	53.7%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Aberdeen clean sheet in 1st half	46.3%	49.1%	—	—	2.04

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aberdeen to concede in 2nd half	64.0%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Aberdeen clean sheet in 2nd half	36.0%	38.0%	—	—	2.63

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aberdeen under 6.5 corners	87.5%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Aberdeen under 5.5 corners	78.3%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Aberdeen over 2.5 corners	70.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Aberdeen under 4.5 corners	65.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Aberdeen over 3.5 corners	52.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Aberdeen under 3.5 corners	48.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Aberdeen over 4.5 corners	35.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.61
Aberdeen under 2.5 corners	29.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Aberdeen over 5.5 corners	21.7%	24.0%	—	—	4.18
Aberdeen over 6.5 corners	12.5%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aberdeen under 3.5 goals	99.3%	97.5%	96.3%	1.01×	1.03
Aberdeen under 2.5 goals	96.2%	97.5%	85.5%	1.14×	1.03
Aberdeen under 1.5 goals	83.2%	81.5%	63.2%	1.29×	1.23
Aberdeen over 0.5 goals	52.0%	53.5%	66.9%	0.80×	1.87
Aberdeen under 0.5 goals	48.0%	46.5%	33.1%	1.41×	2.15
Aberdeen over 1.5 goals	16.8%	18.5%	36.8%	0.50×	5.41
Aberdeen over 2.5 goals	3.8%	2.5%	14.5%	0.17×	39.77
Aberdeen over 3.5 goals	0.7%	2.5%	3.7%	0.67×	39.93

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aberdeen under 1.5 in 1st half	96.4%	96.1%	—	—	1.04
Aberdeen under 0.5 in 1st half	74.6%	68.3%	—	—	1.47
Aberdeen over 0.5 in 1st half	25.4%	31.7%	—	—	3.15
Aberdeen over 1.5 in 1st half	3.6%	3.9%	—	—	25.74

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aberdeen scores equally in both	54.4%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
Aberdeen scores more in 2nd half	28.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Aberdeen scores more in 1st half	17.4%	18.0%	—	—	5.55

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian (away no bet)	73.8%	68.4%	66.3%	1.03×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	26.2%	31.6%	33.7%	0.94×	3.17

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aberdeen even goals	61.5%	59.1%	57.6%	1.03×	1.69
Aberdeen odd goals	38.5%	40.9%	42.4%	0.97×	2.45

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.7%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.3%	12.1%	—	—	8.27

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	59.3%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Both halves under 1.5 goals	40.7%	39.4%	—	—	2.54

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	55.3%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Heart of Midlothian to score 2+ in a row	47.6%	46.2%	—	—	2.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row	22.6%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Heart of Midlothian to score 3+ in a row	20.8%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Aberdeen to score 2+ in a row	11.3%	12.1%	—	—	8.25
Aberdeen to score 3+ in a row	1.9%	2.5%	—	—	39.81

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian corners (+3.5)	94.8%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Heart of Midlothian corners (+2.5)	91.2%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Heart of Midlothian corners (+1.5)	85.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Aberdeen corners (+3.5)	62.5%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Heart of Midlothian corners (-1.5)	58.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Aberdeen corners (+2.5)	52.0%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Heart of Midlothian corners (-2.5)	48.0%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Aberdeen corners (+1.5)	41.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Heart of Midlothian corners (-3.5)	37.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Aberdeen corners (-1.5)	14.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Aberdeen corners (-2.5)	8.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Aberdeen corners (-3.5)	5.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	35.0%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	34.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	30.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	75.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	74.4%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	65.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	65.0%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	56.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	54.3%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	45.7%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	43.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	35.0%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	34.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 12.5 corners	25.6%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	25.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	14.5%	11.5%	9.5%	1.21×	8.71
2-0	12.8%	11.5%	8.7%	1.32×	8.71
1-1	10.4%	11.5%	9.3%	1.23×	8.72
2-1	9.4%	7.4%	7.0%	1.05×	13.51
0-0	7.9%	7.4%	5.8%	1.28×	13.51
3-0	7.7%	7.4%	5.6%	1.33×	13.51
0-1	6.0%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.51
3-1	5.6%	7.4%	5.6%	1.33×	13.51
0-2	2.2%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.31
0-3	0.5%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.15×	58.32
1-2	3.9%	1.7%	8.9%	0.19×	58.30
1-3	0.9%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.07×	58.32
2-2	3.5%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.30
2-3	0.8%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.31
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.07×	58.32
3-2	2.1%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31
3-3	0.5%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.15×	58.32
4-0	3.4%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.30
4-1	2.5%	1.7%	1.4%	1.19×	58.31
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	0.6%	2.77×	58.31
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.07×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	8.30×	58.32
Any other score	3.7%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian (2nd half DNB)	75.9%	79.3%	—	—	1.26
Aberdeen (2nd half DNB)	24.2%	20.7%	—	—	4.83

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian leading at HT (DNB)	77.1%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
Aberdeen leading at HT (DNB)	22.9%	24.8%	—	—	4.03

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian or draw (1X)	85.0%	86.5%	69.0%	1.25×	1.16
Heart of Midlothian or Aberdeen (12)	77.7%	75.5%	76.7%	0.99×	1.32
Aberdeen or draw (X2)	37.2%	41.8%	54.1%	0.77×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian or draw at HT	86.9%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
Heart of Midlothian or Aberdeen at HT	57.3%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Aberdeen or draw at HT	55.8%	57.4%	—	—	1.74

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian or draw (1UP)	85.0%	91.8%	—	—	1.09
Aberdeen or draw (1UP)	37.2%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian or draw in 2nd half	84.2%	82.3%	—	—	1.22
Heart of Midlothian or Aberdeen in 2nd half	65.2%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Aberdeen or draw in 2nd half	50.5%	54.6%	—	—	1.83

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.8%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	37.2%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian (DNB)	80.8%	80.3%	59.7%	1.35×	1.25
Aberdeen (DNB)	19.2%	19.7%	40.3%	0.49×	5.08

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian to score first	65.3%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Aberdeen to score first	26.8%	27.8%	—	—	3.60
No goal scored	7.9%	7.6%	—	—	13.18

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	56.8%	55.0%	47.7%	1.15×	1.82
Both teams to score	43.2%	45.0%	52.3%	0.86×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	43.4%	41.6%	34.1%	1.22×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	32.8%	34.6%	43.2%	0.80×	2.89
Not both score & over 2.5	13.5%	12.4%	13.8%	0.89×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	10.4%	12.4%	9.3%	1.33×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	91.0%	89.0%	83.9%	1.06×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	9.0%	11.0%	16.1%	0.68×	9.09

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	77.3%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	22.7%	24.8%	—	—	4.03

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	66.7%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Both score 2nd half only	19.6%	15.0%	—	—	6.65
Both score 1st half only	10.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score in both halves	3.1%	4.9%	—	—	20.53

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	86.4%	84.8%	—	—	1.18
Both teams to score by HT	13.6%	15.2%	—	—	6.60

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	50.2%	52.5%	—	—	1.90
A half without a goal	49.8%	47.5%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.9%	47.2%	45.7%	1.03×	2.12
0-1 goals	28.4%	26.6%	21.7%	1.23×	3.76
4-6 goals	23.3%	22.9%	31.2%	0.74×	4.36
7+ goals	1.5%	1.8%	1.9%	0.99×	54.41

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aberdeen to score exactly 0	48.0%	43.0%	33.1%	1.30×	2.33
Aberdeen to score exactly 1	35.2%	35.9%	30.4%	1.18×	2.79
Aberdeen to score exactly 2	12.9%	12.9%	22.5%	0.57×	7.76
Aberdeen to score 3+	3.8%	4.6%	14.5%	0.32×	21.81

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian to score exactly 1	29.9%	26.6%	31.2%	0.85×	3.77
Heart of Midlothian to score exactly 2	26.8%	26.6%	25.0%	1.06×	3.77
Heart of Midlothian to score 3+	26.7%	26.6%	23.8%	1.12×	3.77
Heart of Midlothian to score exactly 0	16.7%	18.8%	20.5%	0.92×	5.32

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian leading at HT	44.2%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Draw at HT	42.7%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Aberdeen leading at HT	13.1%	11.7%	—	—	8.56

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian -1: 2	37.2%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Heart of Midlothian -1: 1	36.6%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Heart of Midlothian -1: X	26.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aberdeen (0:1)	37.2%	37.3%	54.1%	0.69×	2.68
Heart of Midlothian (0:1)	36.6%	37.3%	26.4%	1.41×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	26.2%	27.0%	19.6%	1.38×	3.70

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aberdeen (0:2)	63.4%	67.1%	73.6%	0.91×	1.49
Draw (0:2)	19.5%	15.3%	14.5%	1.06×	6.55
Heart of Midlothian (0:2)	17.1%	15.2%	12.2%	1.25×	6.56

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aberdeen (0:3)	82.9%	85.4%	87.8%	0.97×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	10.5%	9.9%	6.8%	1.45×	10.14
Heart of Midlothian (0:3)	6.5%	5.8%	5.6%	1.04×	17.26

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aberdeen (0:4)	93.5%	94.6%	94.4%	1.00×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.4%	1.2%	4.8%	0.26×	81.41
Heart of Midlothian (0:4)	2.1%	1.2%	1.0%	1.19×	81.67

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian (1:0)	85.0%	86.0%	69.0%	1.25×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	10.8%	12.7%	17.8%	0.71×	7.88
Aberdeen (1:0)	4.1%	3.3%	13.4%	0.24×	30.49

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian (2:0)	95.9%	96.8%	86.6%	1.12×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	3.3%	2.3%	7.6%	0.30×	43.72
Aberdeen (2:0)	0.9%	2.3%	6.0%	0.38×	43.87

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.4%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	27.6%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	26.0%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian to concede	52.0%	53.1%	66.9%	0.79×	1.88
Heart of Midlothian clean sheet	48.0%	46.9%	33.1%	1.42×	2.13

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian clean sheet in 1st half	74.6%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Heart of Midlothian to concede in 1st half	25.4%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian clean sheet in 2nd half	64.4%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Heart of Midlothian to concede in 2nd half	35.6%	40.1%	—	—	2.50

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian over 2.5 corners	91.3%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Heart of Midlothian over 3.5 corners	82.1%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Heart of Midlothian over 4.5 corners	70.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Heart of Midlothian over 5.5 corners	56.6%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Heart of Midlothian under 6.5 corners	56.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Heart of Midlothian under 5.5 corners	43.4%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Heart of Midlothian over 6.5 corners	43.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Heart of Midlothian under 4.5 corners	29.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Heart of Midlothian under 3.5 corners	17.9%	19.0%	—	—	5.26
Heart of Midlothian under 2.5 corners	8.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian under 3.5 goals	89.3%	87.3%	92.1%	0.95×	1.15
Heart of Midlothian over 0.5 goals	83.3%	82.2%	79.5%	1.03×	1.22
Heart of Midlothian under 2.5 goals	73.3%	74.2%	76.2%	0.97×	1.35
Heart of Midlothian over 1.5 goals	53.4%	53.2%	48.6%	1.10×	1.88
Heart of Midlothian under 1.5 goals	46.6%	46.8%	51.4%	0.91×	2.14
Heart of Midlothian over 2.5 goals	26.7%	25.8%	23.8%	1.09×	3.88
Heart of Midlothian under 0.5 goals	16.7%	17.8%	20.5%	0.87×	5.62
Heart of Midlothian over 3.5 goals	10.7%	12.7%	7.9%	1.62×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian under 1.5 in 1st half	82.0%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
Heart of Midlothian over 0.5 in 1st half	53.7%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Heart of Midlothian under 0.5 in 1st half	46.3%	49.3%	—	—	2.03
Heart of Midlothian over 1.5 in 1st half	18.1%	16.0%	—	—	6.27

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian scores more in 2nd half	40.5%	41.6%	—	—	2.40
Heart of Midlothian scores equally in both	32.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Heart of Midlothian scores more in 1st half	26.9%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	59.8%	56.4%	43.0%	1.31×	1.77
Aberdeen (home no bet)	40.2%	43.6%	57.0%	0.76×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian even goals	51.4%	50.7%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
Heart of Midlothian odd goals	48.6%	49.3%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	34.5%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
HT 1-0	26.6%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
HT 2-0	10.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 0-1	10.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 1-1	7.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.54
Any other HT score	4.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.10
HT 2-1	3.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.21
HT 0-2	1.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.31
HT 1-2	1.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.33
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.37

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian at HT / Heart of Midlothian at FT	39.2%	41.4%	—	—	2.42
Draw at HT / Heart of Midlothian at FT	21.2%	21.5%	—	—	4.64
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Aberdeen at HT / Aberdeen at FT	7.2%	6.1%	—	—	16.49
Draw at HT / Aberdeen at FT	6.8%	6.1%	—	—	16.50
Heart of Midlothian at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Aberdeen at HT / Draw at FT	3.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.89
Aberdeen at HT / Heart of Midlothian at FT	2.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.93
Heart of Midlothian at HT / Aberdeen at FT	0.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.99

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian to score last	65.3%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Aberdeen to score last	26.8%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
No goal scored	7.9%	7.6%	—	—	13.18

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.1%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Heart of Midlothian to lead by 1 at any time	72.8%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.6%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Heart of Midlothian to lead by 2 at any time	41.7%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Aberdeen to lead by 1 at any time	29.9%	25.4%	—	—	3.94
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.5%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Heart of Midlothian to lead by 3 at any time	19.2%	14.9%	—	—	6.73
Aberdeen to lead by 2 at any time	7.0%	6.6%	—	—	15.06
Aberdeen to lead by 3 at any time	1.3%	1.6%	—	—	63.94

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian most corners	69.3%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Aberdeen most corners	21.5%	25.9%	—	—	3.87
Corners level	9.1%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.8%	87.4%	87.0%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.9%	83.4%	79.8%	1.05×	1.20
2-6 goals	70.2%	72.3%	76.7%	0.94×	1.38
1-3 goals	67.4%	68.8%	61.6%	1.12×	1.45
2-5 goals	67.3%	68.8%	71.1%	0.97×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.4%	63.3%	63.8%	0.99×	1.58
2-3 goals	46.9%	48.4%	45.7%	1.06×	2.06
1-2 goals	45.9%	48.4%	37.6%	1.29×	2.06
3-6 goals	44.8%	43.6%	55.2%	0.79×	2.29
3-5 goals	41.9%	43.6%	49.6%	0.88×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.0%	39.2%	42.4%	0.92×	2.55
4-6 goals	23.3%	24.5%	31.2%	0.78×	4.09
4-5 goals	20.4%	24.4%	25.6%	0.95×	4.09
5-6 goals	9.7%	8.9%	13.0%	0.68×	11.24
7+ goals	1.5%	2.6%	1.9%	1.37×	39.20

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian never behind	62.2%	68.3%	—	—	1.47
Aberdeen never behind	19.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.39

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	48.8%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	51.2%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.9%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	44.1%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.6%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.4%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.6%	95.4%	92.6%	1.03×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.1%	92.3%	94.2%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.8%	87.6%	85.3%	1.03×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	75.2%	77.3%	67.1%	1.15×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	71.6%	72.5%	78.3%	0.93×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	53.7%	52.5%	43.2%	1.22×	1.90
Over 2.5 goals	46.3%	47.5%	56.8%	0.84×	2.11
Under 1.5 goals	28.4%	27.5%	21.7%	1.27×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	24.8%	22.7%	32.9%	0.69×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	11.2%	12.4%	14.7%	0.84×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	7.9%	7.7%	5.8%	1.34×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	4.4%	4.6%	7.4%	0.62×	21.80

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.5%	97.2%	98.0%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.3%	97.2%	92.0%	1.06×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	87.0%	86.7%	82.1%	1.06×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	68.5%	67.5%	56.8%	1.19×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	62.0%	61.9%	72.4%	0.86×	1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	38.0%	38.1%	27.6%	1.38×	2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	31.5%	32.5%	43.2%	0.75×	3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.0%	13.3%	17.9%	0.74×	7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.7%	2.8%	8.0%	0.35×	35.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.5%	2.8%	2.0%	1.42×	35.64

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.8%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	71.3%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	65.5%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	34.5%	31.5%	—	—	3.17
Over 1.5 in 1st half	28.7%	28.7%	—	—	3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.2%	7.3%	—	—	13.67

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	81.9%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	76.8%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	57.1%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	42.9%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	23.2%	20.5%	—	—	4.88
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	18.1%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aberdeen not to score in both halves	90.9%	90.2%	—	—	1.11
Heart of Midlothian not to score in both halves	65.6%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Heart of Midlothian to score in both halves	34.4%	30.1%	—	—	3.33
Aberdeen to score in both halves	9.1%	9.8%	—	—	10.23

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	43.2%	46.6%	52.3%	0.89×	2.15
Only Heart of Midlothian scores	40.1%	46.5%	27.5%	1.69×	2.15
Only Aberdeen scores	8.8%	7.1%	14.9%	0.48×	13.99
Neither team scores	7.9%	7.1%	5.8%	1.23×	14.00

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.4%	24.9%	21.7%	1.15×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.5%	22.6%	24.2%	0.93×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	20.5%	22.6%	16.1%	1.40×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	13.6%	12.1%	18.4%	0.66×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	7.9%	7.6%	5.8%	1.32×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	6.8%	7.6%	7.4%	1.02×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.4%	4.5%	7.4%	0.60×	22.33

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.8%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	34.5%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	19.5%	15.8%	—	—	6.34
3+ goals in 1st half	9.2%	7.3%	—	—	13.67

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	42.9%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	34.0%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
No goals in 2nd half	23.2%	22.9%	—	—	4.36

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aberdeen not to win both halves	97.9%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
Heart of Midlothian not to win both halves	78.2%	75.7%	—	—	1.32
Heart of Midlothian to win both halves	21.8%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
Aberdeen to win both halves	2.1%	2.8%	—	—	36.36

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aberdeen to win neither half	73.2%	73.1%	—	—	1.37
Heart of Midlothian to win either half	71.8%	73.0%	—	—	1.37
Heart of Midlothian to win neither half	28.2%	27.0%	—	—	3.70
Aberdeen to win either half	26.8%	26.9%	—	—	3.72

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aberdeen not to win to nil	91.2%	92.1%	85.1%	1.08×	1.09
Heart of Midlothian not to win to nil	59.9%	59.2%	72.5%	0.82×	1.69
Heart of Midlothian to win to nil	40.1%	40.8%	27.5%	1.48×	2.45
Aberdeen to win to nil	8.8%	7.9%	14.9%	0.53×	12.62

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian by 1	26.2%	27.9%	19.6%	1.42×	3.59
Draw	22.3%	24.1%	23.3%	1.03×	4.15
Heart of Midlothian by 2	19.5%	17.0%	14.5%	1.18×	5.87
Heart of Midlothian by 3+	17.1%	17.0%	12.2%	1.40×	5.87
Aberdeen by 1	10.8%	11.8%	17.8%	0.66×	8.51
Aberdeen by 2	3.3%	2.7%	7.6%	0.35×	36.87
Aberdeen by 3+	0.9%	2.7%	6.0%	0.45×	36.95