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Heart of Midlothian v Rangers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Heart of Midlothian win
45.2%
model 40.8%
Draw
23.8%
model 24.4%
Rangers win
31.0%
model 34.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 11.4%
  2. 2-1 8.8%
  3. 1-0 8.5%
  4. 1-2 8.0%
  5. 0-1 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.555.4% Under 2.544.6%
BTTS yes58.3% BTTS no41.7%
Heart of Midlothian 1+78.1% Heart of Midlothian 2+44.8%
Rangers 1+74.9% Rangers 2+40.2%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.38. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
84/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Heart of Midlothian not to win to nil
Win to nil · usually 73%
83.1% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Rangers (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 74%
83.5% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Heart of Midlothian have an estimated 45.2% win probability, against 31.0% for Rangers and 23.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.52 for Heart of Midlothian and 1.38 for Rangers.

Why Heart of Midlothian

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.8%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.52 to 1.38. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Rangers can win

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Heart of Midlothian, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Rangers, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Heart of Midlothian: 34% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Rangers: 56% possession, 18.4 shots a match, 9.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Heart of Midlothian are the model's most likely outcome at 45.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.4%. Confidence 84/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.52–1.38 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.54–1.30 1-1 12% 54% 57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian to win 43.1% 42.9% 45.9% 0.94× 2.33
Rangers to win 32.3% 30.4% 31.0% 0.98× 3.29
Draw 24.6% 24.5% 23.3% 1.05× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian & both teams score 21.5% 21.8% 18.6% 1.17× 4.59
Heart of Midlothian & not both score 21.6% 21.8% 27.5% 0.79× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 18.9% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.56
Rangers & both teams score 16.5% 18.0% 16.3% 1.10× 5.57
Rangers & not both score 15.7% 18.0% 14.9% 1.21× 5.57
Draw & not both score 5.7% 8.3% 5.8% 1.44× 12.01
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian & over 1.5 34.0% 30.8% 36.6% 0.84× 3.25
Heart of Midlothian & under 3.5 28.7% 26.1% 30.2% 0.86× 3.84
Heart of Midlothian & over 2.5 27.0% 26.1% 28.1% 0.93× 3.84
Rangers & over 1.5 24.5% 21.6% 24.4% 0.89× 4.63
Rangers & under 3.5 22.4% 21.6% 22.5% 0.96× 4.63
Rangers & over 2.5 19.6% 18.0% 20.5% 0.88× 5.55
Draw & over 1.5 18.9% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.55
Draw & under 2.5 17.3% 18.0% 14.9% 1.21× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 17.3% 18.0% 14.9% 1.21× 5.56
Heart of Midlothian & under 2.5 16.1% 18.0% 18.0% 1.00× 5.56
Heart of Midlothian & over 3.5 14.5% 12.8% 15.9% 0.81× 7.79
Rangers & under 2.5 12.7% 12.8% 10.7% 1.19× 7.79
Rangers & over 3.5 9.9% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Heart of Midlothian & under 1.5 9.2% 7.9% 9.5% 0.83× 12.63
Rangers & under 1.5 7.7% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 7.3% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 7.3% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 5.7% 7.9% 5.8% 1.37× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian (1UP) 59.6% 58.0% — — 1.72
Rangers (1UP) 50.2% 52.2% — — 1.92
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian (2UP) 43.1% 47.1% — — 2.12
Rangers (2UP) 32.3% 30.3% — — 3.31
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian to win 2nd half 35.6% 36.4% — — 2.75
2nd half drawn 34.4% 34.0% — — 2.94
Rangers to win 2nd half 30.0% 26.2% — — 3.82
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers under 1.5 in 2nd half 81.6% 84.1% — — 1.19
Rangers over 0.5 in 2nd half 54.1% 52.5% — — 1.91
Rangers under 0.5 in 2nd half 45.9% 47.5% — — 2.11
Rangers over 1.5 in 2nd half 18.4% 15.9% — — 6.28
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian under 1.5 in 2nd half 78.1% 75.3% — — 1.33
Heart of Midlothian over 0.5 in 2nd half 58.4% 58.0% — — 1.72
Heart of Midlothian under 0.5 in 2nd half 41.6% 42.0% — — 2.38
Heart of Midlothian over 1.5 in 2nd half 21.9% 24.7% — — 4.05
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (+2.5) 91.5% 92.1% 87.8% 1.05× 1.09
Rangers (+1.5) 78.6% 78.5% 73.6% 1.07× 1.27
Heart of Midlothian (+0.5) 67.7% 68.7% 69.0% 1.00× 1.46
Rangers (+0.5) 56.9% 57.0% 54.1% 1.05× 1.75
Heart of Midlothian (-0.5) 43.1% 43.0% 45.9% 0.94× 2.33
Rangers (-0.5) 32.3% 31.3% 31.0% 1.01× 3.19
Heart of Midlothian (-1.5) 21.4% 21.5% 26.4% 0.81× 4.65
Heart of Midlothian (-2.5) 8.5% 7.9% 12.2% 0.65× 12.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to concede 78.6% 78.8% 79.5% 0.99× 1.27
Rangers clean sheet 21.4% 21.2% 20.5% 1.04× 4.71
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers clean sheet in 1st half 51.6% 50.8% — — 1.97
Rangers to concede in 1st half 48.4% 49.2% — — 2.03
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to concede in 2nd half 58.4% 57.4% — — 1.74
Rangers clean sheet in 2nd half 41.6% 42.6% — — 2.35
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers over 2.5 corners 83.2% 81.4% — — 1.23
Rangers under 6.5 corners 73.9% 71.6% — — 1.40
Rangers over 3.5 corners 69.1% 67.6% — — 1.48
Rangers under 5.5 corners 61.5% 61.7% — — 1.62
Rangers over 4.5 corners 53.4% 53.1% — — 1.88
Rangers under 4.5 corners 46.6% 46.9% — — 2.13
Rangers over 5.5 corners 38.5% 38.3% — — 2.61
Rangers under 3.5 corners 30.9% 32.4% — — 3.09
Rangers over 6.5 corners 26.1% 28.4% — — 3.53
Rangers under 2.5 corners 16.8% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers under 3.5 goals 95.7% 97.5% 96.3% 1.01× 1.03
Rangers under 2.5 goals 85.8% 87.8% 85.5% 1.03× 1.14
Rangers over 0.5 goals 72.7% 71.8% 66.9% 1.07× 1.39
Rangers under 1.5 goals 62.8% 63.2% 63.2% 1.00× 1.58
Rangers over 1.5 goals 37.2% 36.8% 36.8% 1.00× 2.72
Rangers under 0.5 goals 27.3% 28.2% 33.1% 0.85× 3.55
Rangers over 2.5 goals 14.2% 12.2% 14.5% 0.84× 8.19
Rangers over 3.5 goals 4.3% 2.5% 3.7% 0.68× 39.75
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers under 1.5 in 1st half 90.4% 93.9% — — 1.07
Rangers under 0.5 in 1st half 59.5% 62.5% — — 1.60
Rangers over 0.5 in 1st half 40.5% 37.5% — — 2.67
Rangers over 1.5 in 1st half 9.6% 6.1% — — 16.28
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers scores equally in both 39.5% 37.4% — — 2.67
Rangers scores more in 2nd half 38.2% 37.4% — — 2.68
Rangers scores more in 1st half 22.3% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian (away no bet) 63.7% 61.9% 66.3% 0.93× 1.62
Draw (away no bet) 36.3% 38.1% 33.7% 1.13× 2.63
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers even goals 53.7% 52.6% 57.6% 0.91× 1.90
Rangers odd goals 46.3% 47.4% 42.4% 1.12× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 83.7% 83.2% — — 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 16.3% 16.8% — — 5.96
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 66.0% 67.8% — — 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 34.0% 32.2% — — 3.10
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 57.6% 55.0% — — 1.82
Heart of Midlothian to score 2+ in a row 36.6% 36.4% — — 2.74
Rangers to score 2+ in a row 28.1% 25.0% — — 4.01
Either team to score 3+ in a row 20.6% 19.5% — — 5.13
Heart of Midlothian to score 3+ in a row 12.8% 12.2% — — 8.22
Rangers to score 3+ in a row 8.2% 5.5% — — 18.12
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers corners (+3.5) 84.9% 79.8% — — 1.25
Heart of Midlothian corners (+3.5) 82.2% 79.8% — — 1.25
Rangers corners (+2.5) 77.6% 74.8% — — 1.34
Heart of Midlothian corners (+2.5) 74.2% 70.8% — — 1.41
Rangers corners (+1.5) 68.4% 65.9% — — 1.52
Heart of Midlothian corners (+1.5) 64.5% 61.9% — — 1.62
Rangers corners (-1.5) 35.5% 38.1% — — 2.62
Heart of Midlothian corners (-1.5) 31.6% 34.1% — — 2.93
Rangers corners (-2.5) 25.8% 29.2% — — 3.42
Heart of Midlothian corners (-2.5) 22.4% 25.2% — — 3.97
Rangers corners (-3.5) 17.8% 20.2% — — 4.95
Heart of Midlothian corners (-3.5) 15.1% 20.2% — — 4.95
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 38.5% 34.0% — — 2.94
9-11 corners 31.2% 33.2% — — 3.01
12+ corners 30.3% 33.2% — — 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 77.8% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 7.5 corners 72.1% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 69.7% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 61.5% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 60.2% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 9.5 corners 50.4% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 49.6% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 39.8% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 8.5 corners 38.5% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 11.5 corners 30.3% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 7.5 corners 27.9% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 22.2% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.6% 11.5% 9.3% 1.23× 8.71
1-0 9.2% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.51
2-1 9.0% 7.4% 7.0% 1.05× 13.51
0-1 7.7% 7.4% 6.8% 1.09× 13.51
1-2 7.6% 7.4% 8.9% 0.83× 13.51
2-0 6.9% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.51
0-0 5.7% 7.4% 5.8% 1.28× 13.51
2-2 5.8% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.51
0-2 4.9% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.29
0-3 2.1% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.31
0-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.32
1-3 3.3% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.30
1-4 1.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.08× 58.31
2-3 2.5% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.30
2-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.8% 2.08× 58.31
3-0 3.6% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.30
3-1 4.6% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.29
3-2 3.0% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.30
3-3 1.3% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.31
3-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.32
4-0 1.4% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.31
4-1 1.8% 1.7% 1.4% 1.19× 58.31
4-2 1.2% 1.7% 0.6% 2.77× 58.31
4-3 0.5% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 8.30× 58.32
Any other score 3.1% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian (2nd half DNB) 54.3% 54.7% — — 1.83
Rangers (2nd half DNB) 45.7% 45.3% — — 2.21
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian leading at HT (DNB) 57.9% 55.6% — — 1.80
Rangers leading at HT (DNB) 42.1% 44.4% — — 2.25
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian or Rangers (12) 75.4% 75.5% 76.7% 0.99× 1.32
Heart of Midlothian or draw (1X) 67.7% 69.6% 69.0% 1.01× 1.44
Rangers or draw (X2) 56.9% 57.1% 54.1% 1.05× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian or draw at HT 75.6% 79.5% — — 1.26
Rangers or draw at HT 66.5% 67.2% — — 1.49
Heart of Midlothian or Rangers at HT 57.9% 57.5% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian or draw (1UP) 67.7% 76.4% — — 1.31
Rangers or draw (1UP) 56.9% 63.0% — — 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian or draw in 2nd half 70.0% 73.8% — — 1.35
Heart of Midlothian or Rangers in 2nd half 65.6% 66.0% — — 1.52
Rangers or draw in 2nd half 64.4% 63.6% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 62.2% 61.3% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 37.8% 38.7% — — 2.59
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian (DNB) 57.2% 58.1% 59.7% 0.97× 1.72
Rangers (DNB) 42.8% 41.9% 40.3% 1.04× 2.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian to score first 51.2% 53.3% — — 1.88
Rangers to score first 43.1% 41.7% — — 2.40
No goal scored 5.7% 7.5% — — 13.31
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 57.0% 55.0% 52.3% 1.05× 1.82
Not both teams to score 43.0% 45.0% 47.7% 0.94× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 45.4% 44.3% 43.2% 1.03× 2.26
Not both score & under 2.5 34.5% 34.6% 34.1% 1.01× 2.89
Both score & under 2.5 11.6% 12.4% 9.3% 1.33× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 8.5% 8.3% 13.8% 0.60× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 83.0% 82.6% 83.9% 0.99× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 17.0% 17.4% 16.1% 1.08× 5.76
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 68.4% 67.3% — — 1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half 31.6% 32.7% — — 3.06
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 55.0% 60.0% — — 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 25.4% 26.7% — — 3.74
Both score 1st half only 13.4% 10.7% — — 9.30
Both score in both halves 6.2% 6.8% — — 14.80
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 80.4% 83.4% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 19.6% 16.6% — — 6.02
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 56.0% 57.0% — — 1.76
A half without a goal 44.0% 43.0% — — 2.32
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.7% 47.2% 45.7% 1.03× 2.12
4-6 goals 29.1% 26.6% 31.2% 0.85× 3.76
0-1 goals 22.6% 22.9% 21.7% 1.06× 4.36
7+ goals 2.6% 1.8% 1.9% 0.99× 54.30
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to score exactly 1 35.4% 35.9% 30.4% 1.18× 2.79
Rangers to score exactly 0 27.3% 27.4% 33.1% 0.83× 3.64
Rangers to score exactly 2 23.0% 22.3% 22.5% 0.99× 4.49
Rangers to score 3+ 14.2% 12.9% 14.5% 0.89× 7.75
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian to score exactly 1 33.0% 32.6% 31.2% 1.04× 3.07
Heart of Midlothian to score exactly 2 25.4% 26.6% 25.0% 1.06× 3.77
Heart of Midlothian to score exactly 0 21.4% 23.3% 20.5% 1.14× 4.29
Heart of Midlothian to score 3+ 20.1% 23.3% 23.8% 0.98× 4.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 42.1% 42.5% — — 2.35
Heart of Midlothian leading at HT 33.5% 32.8% — — 3.05
Rangers leading at HT 24.4% 20.5% — — 4.89
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian -1: 2 56.9% 56.8% — — 1.76
Heart of Midlothian -1: X 21.7% 23.5% — — 4.25
Heart of Midlothian -1: 1 21.4% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (0:1) 56.9% 55.8% 54.1% 1.03× 1.79
Draw (0:1) 21.7% 24.2% 19.6% 1.23× 4.13
Heart of Midlothian (0:1) 21.4% 24.2% 26.4% 0.92× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (0:2) 78.6% 79.4% 73.6% 1.08× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 12.9% 11.0% 14.5% 0.76× 9.10
Heart of Midlothian (0:2) 8.5% 7.7% 12.2% 0.63× 13.05
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (0:3) 91.5% 92.7% 87.8% 1.06× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.7% 5.8% 6.8% 0.85× 17.27
Heart of Midlothian (0:3) 2.8% 2.4% 5.6% 0.43× 42.02
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (0:4) 97.2% 98.1% 94.4% 1.04× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.0% 1.2% 4.8% 0.26× 81.74
Heart of Midlothian (0:4) 0.8% 1.2% 1.0% 1.18× 81.88
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian (1:0) 67.7% 70.2% 69.0% 1.02× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 18.3% 17.1% 17.8% 0.96× 5.85
Rangers (1:0) 13.9% 12.7% 13.4% 0.95× 7.86
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian (2:0) 86.1% 88.5% 86.6% 1.02× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 9.2% 6.4% 7.6% 0.84× 15.64
Rangers (2:0) 4.8% 2.3% 6.0% 0.38× 43.63
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.6% 48.6% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 27.3% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 24.1% 24.5% — — 4.08
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian to concede 72.7% 73.0% 66.9% 1.09× 1.37
Heart of Midlothian clean sheet 27.3% 27.0% 33.1% 0.82× 3.70
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian clean sheet in 1st half 59.5% 62.5% — — 1.60
Heart of Midlothian to concede in 1st half 40.5% 37.5% — — 2.67
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian to concede in 2nd half 54.1% 52.6% — — 1.90
Heart of Midlothian clean sheet in 2nd half 45.9% 47.4% — — 2.11
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian over 2.5 corners 81.5% 81.0% — — 1.24
Heart of Midlothian under 6.5 corners 76.5% 76.5% — — 1.31
Heart of Midlothian over 3.5 corners 66.5% 66.7% — — 1.50
Heart of Midlothian under 5.5 corners 64.5% 62.3% — — 1.61
Heart of Midlothian over 4.5 corners 50.4% 52.6% — — 1.90
Heart of Midlothian under 4.5 corners 49.6% 47.4% — — 2.11
Heart of Midlothian over 5.5 corners 35.5% 37.7% — — 2.65
Heart of Midlothian under 3.5 corners 33.5% 33.3% — — 3.01
Heart of Midlothian over 6.5 corners 23.5% 23.5% — — 4.26
Heart of Midlothian under 2.5 corners 18.5% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian under 3.5 goals 92.9% 92.2% 92.1% 1.00× 1.08
Heart of Midlothian under 2.5 goals 79.9% 77.8% 76.2% 1.02× 1.29
Heart of Midlothian over 0.5 goals 78.6% 77.8% 79.5% 0.98× 1.29
Heart of Midlothian under 1.5 goals 54.5% 53.2% 51.4% 1.03× 1.88
Heart of Midlothian over 1.5 goals 45.5% 46.8% 48.6% 0.96× 2.14
Heart of Midlothian under 0.5 goals 21.4% 22.2% 20.5% 1.09× 4.50
Heart of Midlothian over 2.5 goals 20.1% 22.2% 23.8% 0.94× 4.50
Heart of Midlothian over 3.5 goals 7.1% 7.8% 7.9% 0.99× 12.84
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian under 1.5 in 1st half 85.7% 90.0% — — 1.11
Heart of Midlothian under 0.5 in 1st half 51.6% 50.6% — — 1.98
Heart of Midlothian over 0.5 in 1st half 48.4% 49.4% — — 2.02
Heart of Midlothian over 1.5 in 1st half 14.3% 10.0% — — 10.00
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian scores more in 2nd half 38.3% 38.1% — — 2.62
Heart of Midlothian scores equally in both 35.8% 38.1% — — 2.63
Heart of Midlothian scores more in 1st half 25.8% 27.8% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (home no bet) 56.7% 56.4% 57.0% 0.99× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 43.3% 43.6% 43.0% 1.02× 2.29
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian even goals 52.3% 50.8% 51.7% 0.98× 1.97
Heart of Midlothian odd goals 47.7% 49.2% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 30.7% 33.4% — — 3.00
HT 1-0 20.3% 24.3% — — 4.11
HT 0-1 16.0% 18.5% — — 5.40
HT 1-1 10.5% 11.0% — — 9.12
HT 2-0 6.7% 6.9% — — 14.55
Any other HT score 4.5% 2.4% — — 42.13
HT 0-2 4.1% 2.4% — — 42.15
HT 2-1 3.5% 2.4% — — 42.19
HT 1-2 2.7% 2.4% — — 42.24
HT 2-2 0.9% 2.4% — — 42.36
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian at HT / Heart of Midlothian at FT 25.6% 27.3% — — 3.67
Rangers at HT / Rangers at FT 17.1% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Heart of Midlothian at FT 15.1% 16.7% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 14.3% 12.7% — — 7.88
Draw at HT / Rangers at FT 12.7% 12.7% — — 7.89
Heart of Midlothian at HT / Draw at FT 5.5% 6.0% — — 16.54
Rangers at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.5% — — 28.86
Rangers at HT / Heart of Midlothian at FT 2.5% 3.5% — — 28.95
Heart of Midlothian at HT / Rangers at FT 2.4% 3.5% — — 28.95
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian to score last 51.2% 52.1% — — 1.92
Rangers to score last 43.1% 40.1% — — 2.50
No goal scored 5.7% 7.5% — — 13.31
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.3% 92.6% — — 1.08
Heart of Midlothian to lead by 1 at any time 59.6% 55.0% — — 1.82
Rangers to lead by 1 at any time 50.2% 50.6% — — 1.98
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 47.9% 44.3% — — 2.26
Heart of Midlothian to lead by 2 at any time 28.1% 25.3% — — 3.95
Rangers to lead by 2 at any time 20.0% 14.9% — — 6.72
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 17.2% 14.8% — — 6.75
Heart of Midlothian to lead by 3 at any time 10.8% 10.6% — — 9.47
Rangers to lead by 3 at any time 6.4% 6.6% — — 15.09
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers most corners 46.5% 46.9% — — 2.13
Heart of Midlothian most corners 42.3% 43.5% — — 2.30
Corners level 11.3% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.4% 87.4% 87.0% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 78.5% 78.7% 79.8% 0.99× 1.27
2-6 goals 74.8% 72.3% 76.7% 0.94× 1.38
2-5 goals 70.5% 72.3% 71.1% 1.02× 1.38
1-3 goals 62.6% 63.3% 61.6% 1.03× 1.58
2-4 goals 61.6% 63.3% 63.8% 0.99× 1.58
3-6 goals 51.4% 53.1% 55.2% 0.96× 1.88
3-5 goals 47.1% 48.4% 49.6% 0.98× 2.06
2-3 goals 45.7% 48.4% 45.7% 1.06× 2.06
1-2 goals 40.3% 43.6% 37.6% 1.16× 2.29
3-4 goals 38.1% 39.2% 42.4% 0.92× 2.55
4-6 goals 29.1% 30.2% 31.2% 0.97× 3.31
4-5 goals 24.8% 24.5% 25.6% 0.95× 4.09
5-6 goals 13.2% 14.8% 13.0% 1.14× 6.75
7+ goals 2.6% 2.6% 1.9% 1.37× 39.15
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian never behind 44.0% 48.8% — — 2.05
Rangers never behind 34.7% 36.4% — — 2.74
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.9% 50.9% 51.2% 0.99× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.1% 49.1% 48.8% 1.01× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.7% 51.8% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.3% 48.2% — — 2.08
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.7% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.3% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.3% 92.3% 94.2% 0.98× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 93.2% 92.3% 92.6% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 84.2% 82.3% 85.3% 0.96× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 77.4% 77.3% 78.3% 0.99× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 68.4% 66.3% 67.1% 0.99× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 54.0% 52.5% 56.8% 0.92× 1.90
Under 2.5 goals 46.0% 47.5% 43.2% 1.10× 2.11
Over 3.5 goals 31.6% 33.7% 32.9% 1.02× 2.97
Under 1.5 goals 22.6% 22.7% 21.7% 1.05× 4.40
Over 4.5 goals 15.8% 17.7% 14.7% 1.21× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 6.8% 7.7% 7.4% 1.04× 12.94
Under 0.5 goals 5.7% 7.7% 5.8% 1.34× 12.94
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.3% 97.2% 98.0% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 92.5% 92.4% 92.0% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 81.2% 81.1% 82.1% 0.99× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 70.5% 72.3% 72.4% 1.00× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 59.3% 55.8% 56.8% 0.98× 1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 40.7% 44.2% 43.2% 1.02× 2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 29.5% 27.7% 27.6% 1.00× 3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 18.8% 18.9% 17.9% 1.06× 5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 7.5% 7.6% 8.0% 0.95× 13.19
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.7% 2.8% 2.0% 1.43× 35.62
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.4% 89.1% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 69.3% 68.7% — — 1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half 67.0% 68.6% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 33.0% 31.4% — — 3.19
Under 0.5 in 1st half 30.7% 31.3% — — 3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.7% 10.9% — — 9.15
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 81.0% 82.9% — — 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 76.9% 79.5% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 50.7% 53.1% — — 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 49.3% 46.9% — — 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 23.1% 20.5% — — 4.89
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 19.0% 17.1% — — 5.85
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers not to score in both halves 78.1% 78.5% — — 1.27
Heart of Midlothian not to score in both halves 71.7% 73.8% — — 1.36
Heart of Midlothian to score in both halves 28.3% 26.2% — — 3.82
Rangers to score in both halves 21.9% 21.5% — — 4.65
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 57.0% 58.6% 52.3% 1.12× 1.71
Only Heart of Midlothian scores 21.6% 22.2% 27.5% 0.81× 4.50
Only Rangers scores 15.7% 16.0% 14.9% 1.08× 6.24
Neither team scores 5.7% 7.1% 5.8% 1.23× 14.02
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.4% 22.6% 21.7% 1.04× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 22.6% 24.2% 0.93× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 16.9% 17.5% 16.1% 1.08× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 15.8% 17.5% 18.4% 0.95× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 9.0% 7.6% 7.4% 1.02× 13.13
6 or more goals 6.8% 7.6% 7.4% 1.02× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 5.7% 7.6% 5.8% 1.32× 13.14
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.3% 37.2% — — 2.69
No goals in 1st half 30.7% 35.6% — — 2.81
2 goals in 1st half 21.4% 21.5% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 11.7% 10.8% — — 9.23
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 49.3% 44.8% — — 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 31.7% 33.9% — — 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 19.0% 16.8% — — 5.94
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers not to win both halves 92.7% 94.2% — — 1.06
Heart of Midlothian not to win both halves 88.1% 88.0% — — 1.14
Heart of Midlothian to win both halves 11.9% 12.0% — — 8.32
Rangers to win both halves 7.3% 5.8% — — 17.13
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian to win either half 57.2% 59.0% — — 1.69
Rangers to win neither half 52.9% 54.3% — — 1.84
Rangers to win either half 47.1% 45.7% — — 2.19
Heart of Midlothian to win neither half 42.8% 41.0% — — 2.44
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers not to win to nil 84.3% 83.1% 85.1% 0.98× 1.20
Heart of Midlothian not to win to nil 78.4% 78.1% 72.5% 1.08× 1.28
Heart of Midlothian to win to nil 21.6% 21.9% 27.5% 0.80× 4.57
Rangers to win to nil 15.7% 16.9% 14.9% 1.14× 5.92
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 24.6% 24.1% 23.3% 1.03× 4.15
Heart of Midlothian by 1 21.7% 24.1% 19.6% 1.23× 4.15
Rangers by 1 18.3% 17.1% 17.8% 0.96× 5.87
Heart of Midlothian by 2 12.9% 11.8% 14.5% 0.81× 8.50
Rangers by 2 9.2% 7.2% 7.6% 0.94× 13.90
Heart of Midlothian by 3+ 8.5% 7.2% 12.2% 0.59× 13.90
Rangers by 3+ 4.8% 2.7% 6.0% 0.45× 36.82
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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