Hellas Verona v Cremonese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 19 December 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627
ITA-Serie B
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.9%
- 2-1 8.8%
- 1-2 7.9%
- 1-0 7.1%
- 0-0 6.9%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 55.3% | Under 2.5 | 44.7% |
| BTTS yes | 59.7% | BTTS no | 40.3% |
| Hellas Verona 1+ | 78.4% | Hellas Verona 2+ | 45.3% |
| Cremonese 1+ | 74.4% | Cremonese 2+ | 39.5% |
Expected goals 1.53 – 1.36. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Hellas Verona carry the stronger rating, 1463 Elo against 1390.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Hellas Verona have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Hellas Verona have an estimated 40.1% win probability, against 32.5% for Cremonese and 27.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.53 for Hellas Verona and 1.36 for Cremonese.
Why Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona carry the stronger rating, 1463 Elo against 1390.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 27.4%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.53 to 1.36. Draws run at 32% in this competition.
Why Cremonese can win
Nothing in the data singles out Cremonese.
Key players
Cremonese's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Federico Bonazzoli (0.32), Jamie Vardy (0.29), Jari Vandeputte (0.21).
Availability
No lineup on record for Hellas Verona, so availability is unknown. 1 of Cremonese's top three contributors did not start their last match. Cremonese had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.07 expected goal involvements a match. Reported unavailable for Cremonese: Alberto Grassi (suspended).
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Hellas Verona: 55% possession, 16.3 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Cremonese: 54% possession, 9.2 shots a match, 9.0 faced, 0.13 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Hellas Verona are the model's most likely outcome at 40.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.9%. Confidence 37/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.53–1.36 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.34–1.54 | 1-1 13% | 55% | 59% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.