Hellas Verona v US Avellino — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 8 December 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627
ITA-Serie B
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 13.1%
- 2-1 8.6%
- 1-2 8.1%
- 0-0 7.2%
- 1-0 7.1%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 54.1% | Under 2.5 | 45.9% |
| BTTS yes | 58.9% | BTTS no | 41.1% |
| Hellas Verona 1+ | 76.9% | Hellas Verona 2+ | 43.0% |
| US Avellino 1+ | 74.8% | US Avellino 2+ | 40.1% |
Expected goals 1.46 – 1.38. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Hellas Verona.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Hellas Verona have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Hellas Verona have an estimated 38.0% win probability, against 34.2% for US Avellino and 27.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.46 for Hellas Verona and 1.38 for US Avellino.
Why Hellas Verona
Nothing in the data singles out Hellas Verona.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 27.8%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.46 to 1.38. Draws run at 32% in this competition.
Why US Avellino can win
Nothing in the data singles out US Avellino.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Hellas Verona, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for US Avellino, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Hellas Verona: 55% possession, 16.3 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. US Avellino: 54% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Hellas Verona's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Hellas Verona are the model's most likely outcome at 38.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%. Confidence 39/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.46–1.38 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.34–1.37 | 1-1 14% | 51% | 56% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.