Helmond Sport v Jong AZ — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 18 December 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Helmond Sport

19:00 UTC

Jong AZ

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 23 Oct, 10:58 · 1,352h before kick-off

Helmond Sport win

41.7%

model 40.9%

Draw

22.0%

model 23.2%

Jong AZ win

36.3%

model 35.8%

422236

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.6%
2-1 8.7%
1-2 8.1%
1-0 7.8%
0-1 7.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.0%	Under 2.5	41.0%
BTTS yes	60.9%	BTTS no	39.1%
Helmond Sport 1+	79.6%	Helmond Sport 2+	47.1%
Jong AZ 1+	77.0%	Jong AZ 2+	43.2%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.47. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

60/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

1-3 goals

Multi goal · usually 55%

58.5% fair odds 1.71

moderate signal · 2005 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Helmond Sport not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 77%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Helmond Sport.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Helmond Sport have an estimated 41.7% win probability, against 36.3% for Jong AZ and 22.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.59 for Helmond Sport and 1.47 for Jong AZ.

Why Helmond Sport

Nothing in the data singles out Helmond Sport.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.0%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.59 to 1.47. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why Jong AZ can win

Jong AZ carry the stronger rating, 1380 Elo against 1347.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Helmond Sport, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Jong AZ, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Helmond Sport: 39% possession, 9.2 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Jong AZ: 49% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 16.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-23 14:52 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-23 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Helmond Sport are the model's most likely outcome at 41.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.6%. Confidence 60/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	412336	1.59–1.47	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	412336	1.68–1.57	1-1 10%	63%	64%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport to win	41.2%	42.9%	44.5%	0.96×	2.33
Jong AZ to win	36.3%	36.3%	33.5%	1.08×	2.75
Draw	22.5%	24.4%	22.1%	1.11×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport & both teams score	23.8%	21.8%	22.0%	0.99×	4.58
Jong AZ & both teams score	21.3%	21.8%	19.7%	1.11×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.0%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.56
Helmond Sport & not both score	17.3%	18.0%	22.6%	0.80×	5.57
Jong AZ & not both score	15.1%	18.0%	14.0%	1.28×	5.57
Draw & not both score	3.5%	4.9%	4.8%	1.01×	20.59

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport & over 1.5	34.3%	30.8%	37.0%	0.83×	3.25
Jong AZ & over 1.5	29.9%	26.1%	27.4%	0.95×	3.84
Helmond Sport & over 2.5	28.8%	26.1%	30.8%	0.85×	3.84
Jong AZ & over 2.5	25.1%	26.1%	23.7%	1.10×	3.84
Helmond Sport & under 3.5	24.0%	21.6%	25.7%	0.84×	4.63
Jong AZ & under 3.5	21.7%	21.6%	19.8%	1.09×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.0%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.56
Helmond Sport & over 3.5	17.1%	18.0%	18.9%	0.95×	5.56
Jong AZ & over 3.5	14.6%	12.8%	13.9%	0.92×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	13.4%	12.8%	14.1%	0.91×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	13.4%	12.8%	14.1%	0.91×	7.79
Helmond Sport & under 2.5	12.4%	12.8%	13.8%	0.93×	7.79
Jong AZ & under 2.5	11.2%	12.8%	10.0%	1.29×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	9.1%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	9.1%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.63
Helmond Sport & under 1.5	6.9%	7.9%	7.6%	1.04×	12.63
Jong AZ & under 1.5	6.4%	7.9%	6.3%	1.26×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	3.5%	4.8%	4.8%	1.00×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport (1UP)	59.7%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Jong AZ (1UP)	55.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport (2UP)	41.2%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Jong AZ (2UP)	36.3%	37.4%	—	—	2.68

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport to win 2nd half	34.7%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
Jong AZ to win 2nd half	33.7%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
2nd half drawn	31.6%	34.3%	—	—	2.91

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ under 1.5 in 2nd half	75.8%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Jong AZ over 0.5 in 2nd half	60.9%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Jong AZ under 0.5 in 2nd half	39.1%	39.9%	—	—	2.51
Jong AZ over 1.5 in 2nd half	24.2%	21.2%	—	—	4.72

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport under 1.5 in 2nd half	75.1%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
Helmond Sport over 0.5 in 2nd half	61.6%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Helmond Sport under 0.5 in 2nd half	38.4%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Helmond Sport over 1.5 in 2nd half	24.9%	24.7%	—	—	4.06

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (+2.5)	91.3%	92.1%	88.2%	1.04×	1.09
Jong AZ (+1.5)	79.0%	78.5%	75.6%	1.04×	1.27
Helmond Sport (+0.5)	63.7%	62.9%	66.5%	0.95×	1.59
Jong AZ (+0.5)	58.8%	57.0%	55.5%	1.03×	1.75
Helmond Sport (-0.5)	41.2%	43.0%	44.5%	0.97×	2.33
Jong AZ (-0.5)	36.3%	37.1%	33.5%	1.10×	2.70
Helmond Sport (-1.5)	21.0%	21.5%	24.4%	0.88×	4.65
Helmond Sport (-2.5)	8.8%	7.9%	11.8%	0.67×	12.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to concede	81.4%	81.5%	81.3%	1.00×	1.23
Jong AZ clean sheet	18.6%	18.5%	18.7%	0.99×	5.41

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to concede in 1st half	51.5%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Jong AZ clean sheet in 1st half	48.5%	49.3%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to concede in 2nd half	61.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Jong AZ clean sheet in 2nd half	38.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ under 6.5 corners	82.9%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Jong AZ over 2.5 corners	76.1%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Jong AZ under 5.5 corners	72.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Jong AZ over 3.5 corners	59.1%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Jong AZ under 4.5 corners	57.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Jong AZ over 4.5 corners	42.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Jong AZ under 3.5 corners	40.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Jong AZ over 5.5 corners	27.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Jong AZ under 2.5 corners	23.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Jong AZ over 6.5 corners	17.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ under 3.5 goals	92.6%	92.3%	93.0%	0.99×	1.08
Jong AZ over 0.5 goals	79.1%	76.3%	72.7%	1.05×	1.31
Jong AZ under 2.5 goals	79.2%	76.3%	81.5%	0.94×	1.31
Jong AZ under 1.5 goals	53.6%	53.5%	58.0%	0.92×	1.87
Jong AZ over 1.5 goals	46.4%	46.5%	42.0%	1.11×	2.15
Jong AZ under 0.5 goals	20.9%	23.7%	27.3%	0.87×	4.22
Jong AZ over 2.5 goals	20.8%	23.7%	18.6%	1.28×	4.22
Jong AZ over 3.5 goals	7.4%	7.7%	7.0%	1.09×	13.06

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ under 1.5 in 1st half	86.9%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Jong AZ under 0.5 in 1st half	53.4%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Jong AZ over 0.5 in 1st half	46.6%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Jong AZ over 1.5 in 1st half	13.1%	10.9%	—	—	9.21

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ scores more in 2nd half	41.4%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Jong AZ scores equally in both	35.1%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Jong AZ scores more in 1st half	23.5%	22.1%	—	—	4.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport (away no bet)	64.7%	62.0%	66.8%	0.93×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	35.3%	38.0%	33.2%	1.15×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ even goals	52.2%	52.6%	57.0%	0.92×	1.90
Jong AZ odd goals	47.8%	47.4%	43.0%	1.10×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	77.9%	81.2%	—	—	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	22.1%	18.8%	—	—	5.32

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	73.4%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	26.6%	32.5%	—	—	3.07

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	64.5%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Helmond Sport to score 2+ in a row	39.2%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Jong AZ to score 2+ in a row	35.3%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Either team to score 3+ in a row	25.3%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Helmond Sport to score 3+ in a row	14.1%	12.1%	—	—	8.27
Jong AZ to score 3+ in a row	11.8%	12.0%	—	—	8.32

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport corners (+3.5)	92.7%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Helmond Sport corners (+2.5)	88.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Helmond Sport corners (+1.5)	81.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Jong AZ corners (+3.5)	67.1%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Jong AZ corners (+2.5)	57.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Helmond Sport corners (-1.5)	53.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Jong AZ corners (+1.5)	46.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Helmond Sport corners (-2.5)	42.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Helmond Sport corners (-3.5)	32.9%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Jong AZ corners (-1.5)	18.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Jong AZ corners (-2.5)	11.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Jong AZ corners (-3.5)	7.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	37.3%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
0-8 corners	31.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	30.8%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	77.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	71.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	68.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	62.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	57.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	52.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	47.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	42.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 11.5 corners	37.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	31.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 12.5 corners	28.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	22.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.9%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.50
2-1	8.6%	7.4%	8.1%	0.91×	13.51
1-0	6.9%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.51
1-2	8.0%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
2-2	6.7%	7.4%	6.6%	1.12×	13.51
0-1	6.4%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.51
2-0	5.5%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.51
0-2	4.8%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.29
3-1	4.8%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.29
Any other score	5.0%	1.7%	4.7%	0.37×	58.29
0-0	3.5%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.30
0-3	2.5%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
0-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.31
1-3	4.2%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.30
1-4	1.6%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	58.31
2-3	3.5%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.30
2-4	1.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
3-0	3.1%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.30
3-2	3.8%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30
3-3	2.0%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.31
3-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	58.31
4-0	1.3%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.31
4-1	2.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.31
4-2	1.6%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
4-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.5%	3.49×	58.31
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.1%	13.96×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport (2nd half DNB)	50.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Jong AZ (2nd half DNB)	49.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport leading at HT (DNB)	54.8%	56.1%	—	—	1.78
Jong AZ leading at HT (DNB)	45.2%	43.9%	—	—	2.28

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport or Jong AZ (12)	77.5%	75.6%	77.9%	0.97×	1.32
Helmond Sport or draw (1X)	63.7%	63.7%	66.5%	0.96×	1.57
Jong AZ or draw (X2)	58.8%	57.1%	55.5%	1.03×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport or draw at HT	72.4%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Jong AZ or draw at HT	66.6%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Helmond Sport or Jong AZ at HT	61.0%	61.4%	—	—	1.63

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport or draw (1UP)	63.7%	71.7%	—	—	1.40
Jong AZ or draw (1UP)	58.8%	63.1%	—	—	1.58

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport or Jong AZ in 2nd half	68.4%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Helmond Sport or draw in 2nd half	66.3%	65.6%	—	—	1.52
Jong AZ or draw in 2nd half	65.3%	65.6%	—	—	1.52

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.7%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Neither half drawn	41.4%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport (DNB)	53.1%	51.0%	57.0%	0.89×	1.96
Jong AZ (DNB)	46.9%	49.1%	43.0%	1.14×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport to score first	49.9%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Jong AZ to score first	46.5%	46.0%	—	—	2.18
No goal scored	3.5%	4.3%	—	—	23.38

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	64.1%	56.7%	58.8%	0.96×	1.76
Not both teams to score	35.9%	43.3%	41.2%	1.05×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	54.2%	47.3%	49.5%	0.96×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	27.1%	33.3%	28.3%	1.18×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	9.9%	8.3%	9.5%	0.88×	12.06
Not both score & over 2.5	8.8%	8.3%	13.0%	0.64×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	76.7%	79.6%	79.0%	1.01×	1.26
Both teams to score 2+	23.3%	20.4%	21.0%	0.97×	4.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	62.6%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Both teams to score in 2nd half	37.4%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	47.7%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
Both score 2nd half only	28.4%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
Both score 1st half only	14.9%	10.8%	—	—	9.27
Both score in both halves	9.0%	6.8%	—	—	14.61

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	76.1%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Both teams to score by HT	23.9%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	62.8%	59.7%	—	—	1.67
A half without a goal	37.2%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	42.3%	42.1%	41.0%	1.03×	2.37
4-6 goals	36.1%	35.1%	37.6%	0.93×	2.85
0-1 goals	16.9%	20.2%	18.4%	1.10×	4.94
7+ goals	4.7%	1.9%	3.2%	0.58×	54.02

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to score exactly 1	32.7%	33.8%	30.8%	1.10×	2.96
Jong AZ to score exactly 2	25.6%	27.4%	23.6%	1.16×	3.66
Jong AZ to score exactly 0	20.9%	22.3%	27.3%	0.82×	4.49
Jong AZ to score 3+	20.8%	22.3%	18.6%	1.20×	4.49

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport to score exactly 1	31.3%	32.5%	30.2%	1.08×	3.07
Helmond Sport to score exactly 2	26.3%	26.5%	25.8%	1.03×	3.77
Helmond Sport to score 3+	23.8%	23.3%	25.6%	0.91×	4.29
Helmond Sport to score exactly 0	18.6%	18.8%	18.7%	1.01×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	39.0%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Helmond Sport leading at HT	33.4%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Jong AZ leading at HT	27.6%	25.1%	—	—	3.98

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport -1: 2	58.8%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Helmond Sport -1: 1	21.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Helmond Sport -1: X	20.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (0:1)	58.8%	55.8%	55.5%	1.01×	1.79
Helmond Sport (0:1)	21.0%	24.2%	24.4%	0.99×	4.13
Draw (0:1)	20.2%	24.2%	20.1%	1.20×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (0:2)	79.0%	79.4%	75.6%	1.05×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	12.2%	11.0%	12.8%	0.86×	9.10
Helmond Sport (0:2)	8.8%	7.7%	11.8%	0.65×	13.03

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (0:3)	91.3%	92.7%	88.2%	1.05×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.7%	5.8%	5.7%	1.03×	17.24
Helmond Sport (0:3)	3.0%	2.4%	6.3%	0.38×	42.08

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (0:4)	97.0%	98.1%	93.7%	1.05×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.1%	1.2%	4.3%	0.28×	81.86
Helmond Sport (0:4)	0.9%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	82.01

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport (1:0)	63.7%	65.4%	66.5%	0.98×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	18.9%	17.1%	18.2%	0.94×	5.85
Jong AZ (1:0)	17.5%	17.1%	15.5%	1.10×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport (2:0)	82.5%	84.6%	84.5%	1.00×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.6%	10.3%	8.8%	1.16×	9.74
Jong AZ (2:0)	6.9%	6.4%	6.8%	0.94×	15.69

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.6%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	21.8%	24.4%	—	—	4.09

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport to concede	79.1%	76.1%	72.7%	1.05×	1.31
Helmond Sport clean sheet	20.9%	23.9%	27.3%	0.88×	4.19

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport clean sheet in 1st half	53.4%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Helmond Sport to concede in 1st half	46.6%	44.3%	—	—	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport to concede in 2nd half	60.9%	59.7%	—	—	1.67
Helmond Sport clean sheet in 2nd half	39.1%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport over 2.5 corners	91.0%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Helmond Sport over 3.5 corners	81.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Helmond Sport over 4.5 corners	69.1%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Helmond Sport under 6.5 corners	57.7%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Helmond Sport over 5.5 corners	55.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Helmond Sport under 5.5 corners	44.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Helmond Sport over 6.5 corners	42.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Helmond Sport under 4.5 corners	30.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Helmond Sport under 3.5 corners	18.5%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
Helmond Sport under 2.5 corners	9.0%	10.8%	—	—	9.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport under 3.5 goals	91.0%	92.2%	89.9%	1.03×	1.08
Helmond Sport over 0.5 goals	81.4%	82.2%	81.3%	1.01×	1.22
Helmond Sport under 2.5 goals	76.2%	77.7%	74.4%	1.04×	1.29
Helmond Sport over 1.5 goals	50.1%	53.2%	51.2%	1.04×	1.88
Helmond Sport under 1.5 goals	49.9%	46.8%	48.8%	0.96×	2.14
Helmond Sport over 2.5 goals	23.8%	22.3%	25.6%	0.87×	4.49
Helmond Sport under 0.5 goals	18.6%	17.8%	18.7%	0.95×	5.62
Helmond Sport over 3.5 goals	9.0%	7.8%	10.1%	0.77×	12.87

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport under 1.5 in 1st half	83.6%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
Helmond Sport over 0.5 in 1st half	51.5%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
Helmond Sport under 0.5 in 1st half	48.5%	49.5%	—	—	2.02
Helmond Sport over 1.5 in 1st half	16.4%	16.0%	—	—	6.26

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport scores more in 2nd half	39.6%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Helmond Sport scores equally in both	33.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Helmond Sport scores more in 1st half	26.5%	27.7%	—	—	3.61

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (home no bet)	61.8%	60.0%	60.3%	1.00×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	38.2%	40.0%	39.7%	1.01×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport even goals	51.7%	50.7%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
Helmond Sport odd goals	48.3%	49.3%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	25.9%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
HT 1-0	18.8%	18.7%	—	—	5.36
HT 0-1	16.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-1	11.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 2-0	6.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.48
Any other HT score	6.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 0-2	5.1%	6.9%	—	—	14.51
HT 2-1	4.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.02
HT 1-2	3.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.06
HT 2-2	1.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.21

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport at HT / Helmond Sport at FT	24.7%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Jong AZ at HT / Jong AZ at FT	19.9%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Helmond Sport at FT	13.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Jong AZ at FT	13.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.9%	12.7%	—	—	7.91
Helmond Sport at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.66
Jong AZ at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.61
Helmond Sport at HT / Jong AZ at FT	3.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.68
Jong AZ at HT / Helmond Sport at FT	2.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.69

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport to score last	49.9%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
Jong AZ to score last	46.5%	46.4%	—	—	2.15
No goal scored	3.5%	4.3%	—	—	23.38

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.5%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Helmond Sport to lead by 1 at any time	59.7%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Jong AZ to lead by 1 at any time	55.7%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	53.5%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Helmond Sport to lead by 2 at any time	28.9%	25.6%	—	—	3.91
Jong AZ to lead by 2 at any time	25.1%	25.4%	—	—	3.93
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.8%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Helmond Sport to lead by 3 at any time	11.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Jong AZ to lead by 3 at any time	9.3%	6.7%	—	—	14.83

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport most corners	64.2%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Jong AZ most corners	26.2%	31.1%	—	—	3.21
Corners level	9.6%	8.4%	—	—	11.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.4%	87.4%	86.4%	1.01×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.4%	78.7%	78.5%	1.00×	1.27
1-4 goals	73.7%	72.4%	74.1%	0.98×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.1%	72.4%	72.7%	1.00×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.4%	63.3%	60.4%	1.05×	1.58
3-6 goals	58.3%	59.1%	59.3%	1.00×	1.69
1-3 goals	55.7%	59.1%	54.7%	1.08×	1.69
3-5 goals	51.9%	53.2%	53.6%	0.99×	1.88
2-3 goals	42.3%	43.6%	41.0%	1.06×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.2%	43.6%	41.3%	1.06×	2.30
4-6 goals	36.1%	39.2%	37.6%	1.04×	2.55
1-2 goals	33.5%	35.2%	32.9%	1.07×	2.84
4-5 goals	29.7%	30.2%	31.8%	0.95×	3.31
5-6 goals	18.0%	18.8%	18.2%	1.04×	5.31
7+ goals	4.7%	2.6%	3.2%	0.80×	39.01

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport never behind	40.8%	48.4%	—	—	2.07
Jong AZ never behind	36.7%	44.0%	—	—	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.4%	50.9%	49.6%	1.03×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.6%	49.1%	50.4%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.2%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.8%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.9%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.1%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.5%	95.4%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	88.9%	87.6%	91.0%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	83.1%	82.3%	81.6%	1.01×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	77.2%	77.3%	78.7%	0.98×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	63.0%	61.7%	62.4%	0.99×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	59.2%	58.6%	59.3%	0.99×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	40.8%	41.4%	40.7%	1.02×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	37.0%	38.3%	37.6%	1.02×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	22.8%	22.7%	21.3%	1.07×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	16.9%	17.7%	18.4%	0.96×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	11.1%	12.4%	9.0%	1.38×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	3.5%	4.6%	4.8%	0.95×	21.87

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.9%	92.4%	96.6%	0.96×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	87.4%	86.7%	89.8%	0.97×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	78.9%	75.9%	77.2%	0.98×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	72.2%	72.4%	73.6%	0.98×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	52.4%	51.9%	52.0%	1.00×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	47.6%	48.1%	48.0%	1.00×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	27.8%	27.6%	26.4%	1.05×	3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	21.1%	24.1%	22.8%	1.06×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	12.6%	13.3%	10.2%	1.30×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.1%	7.6%	3.4%	2.24×	13.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.6%	85.9%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.1%	71.7%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	61.0%	63.1%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	39.0%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.9%	28.3%	—	—	3.53
Over 2.5 in 1st half	15.4%	14.1%	—	—	7.08

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	85.1%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	70.4%	77.5%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	56.5%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	43.5%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	29.6%	22.5%	—	—	4.44
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	14.9%	14.6%	—	—	6.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ not to score in both halves	71.6%	73.8%	—	—	1.35
Helmond Sport not to score in both halves	68.3%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Helmond Sport to score in both halves	31.7%	30.1%	—	—	3.33
Jong AZ to score in both halves	28.4%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	64.1%	60.4%	58.8%	1.03×	1.66
Only Helmond Sport scores	17.3%	16.0%	22.6%	0.71×	6.24
Only Jong AZ scores	15.1%	16.0%	14.0%	1.14×	6.25
Neither team scores	3.5%	4.6%	4.8%	0.96×	21.71

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.6%	21.9%	1.03×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	20.2%	22.6%	19.3%	1.17×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	18.0%	17.5%	19.5%	0.89×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.3%	12.1%	13.8%	0.88×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	11.7%	12.1%	12.4%	0.98×	8.25
6 or more goals	11.1%	12.1%	9.0%	1.35×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	3.5%	4.5%	4.8%	0.93×	22.39

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.1%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	25.9%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
2 goals in 1st half	23.6%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	15.4%	15.6%	—	—	6.41

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	56.5%	54.1%	—	—	1.85
1 goal in 2nd half	28.7%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	14.9%	14.4%	—	—	6.93

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ not to win both halves	90.7%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Helmond Sport not to win both halves	88.5%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Helmond Sport to win both halves	11.5%	12.0%	—	—	8.33
Jong AZ to win both halves	9.3%	5.9%	—	—	16.85

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Helmond Sport to win either half	56.6%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Jong AZ to win either half	52.1%	54.2%	—	—	1.84
Jong AZ to win neither half	47.9%	45.8%	—	—	2.19
Helmond Sport to win neither half	43.4%	40.9%	—	—	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ not to win to nil	84.9%	83.1%	86.0%	0.97×	1.20
Helmond Sport not to win to nil	82.7%	83.1%	77.4%	1.07×	1.20
Helmond Sport to win to nil	17.3%	16.9%	22.6%	0.75×	5.92
Jong AZ to win to nil	15.1%	16.9%	14.0%	1.21×	5.93

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	22.5%	24.1%	22.1%	1.09×	4.15
Helmond Sport by 1	20.2%	24.1%	20.1%	1.20×	4.15
Jong AZ by 1	18.9%	17.1%	18.2%	0.94×	5.87
Helmond Sport by 2	12.2%	11.8%	12.8%	0.92×	8.51
Jong AZ by 2	10.6%	11.8%	8.8%	1.33×	8.51
Helmond Sport by 3+	8.8%	7.2%	11.8%	0.61×	13.90
Jong AZ by 3+	6.9%	7.2%	6.8%	1.06×	13.91